USD/CAD - Page 198

y_2008 · #**2956** (**permalink**) 06-14-2009, 11:24 AM

On easy-forex, it closed at a 1.1213/1.1217, while on Gain capital's forex.com it closed at 1.1187/1.191. There are more than 20 pips difference.

SicPips · #**2957** (**permalink**) 06-14-2009, 10:23 PM

Something to think about, the opposition party is thinking about calling another no confidence vote, very seriously. If that were to happen, I think our dollar could see a hit, since it very unstable government atm.

Or at least it would provide the catalyst to confirm the downtrend in the Canadian dollar

Atm right now its flat to me, so sitting on the side

John Kicklighter · #**2958** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I agree. I think this could be a confirmation breakout for a reversal. We have had a good period of trend, it evolved into a period of basing congestion, and now we could see the impetus for reversal.

This pull back to former resistance is a good place for entry should we indeed see a changing tide. Small position for me now (so that my stop can be placed below 1.0950) and will add if we get above 1.13.

It's building this morning. The dollar is strong across the board. Talk of intervention across the commodity bloc (don't know how much weight I would put into it; but it doesn't hurt).

Already took profit on the first jaunt into the position for 170 points. Allowing the rest of built-up position to run.

My CADJPY position has also played out nicely - though it looks like the pivot at 85.85/95 is going to hold up progress. After such a sharp decline, it may be difficult to find follow through. Moving up my stop to secure some profit.

mach9 · #**2959** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 01:21 PM

Working on my trades today as CAD drops.

Getting closer to the PPP line but still room for more movement.

As much as I was going on about fundamentals...
No matter what.. Oil is the CAD factor these days.
I wonder if I could find some links saying oil will trade back?
Hum, wasn't that something I was going to look for a few days ago.
Ah.. Never mind.
I'm sure you see links all over the net talking about oil trading down.

Keep your eye on OIL and TSX and you could trade the CAD with a blindfold.

sameboat · #**2960** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mach9

Working on my trades today as CAD drops.

Keep your eye on OIL and TSX and you could trade the CAD with a blindfold.

It probably goes without saying that there is a lower limit to this. Below certain limits, say $48/barrel, $CDN has responded with a lot of latency to OIL.

Range trading $CDN is another essential side of this; again, it probably goes without saying.

BTW anyone noticed Yves Lamoureux's comments on the similarity in bond trading now and prior to the 1987 crash? I'd be interested if he has a point here.

nesmithbrian · #**2961** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sameboat

BTW anyone noticed Yves Lamoureux's comments on the similarity in bond trading now and prior to the 1987 crash? I'd be interested if he has a point here.

Very interesting, thanks.

BN

adam6655nyc · #**2962** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sameboat

It probably goes without saying that there is a lower limit to this. Below certain limits, say $48/barrel, $CDN has responded with a lot of latency to OIL.

Range trading $CDN is another essential side of this; again, it probably goes without saying.

BTW anyone noticed Yves Lamoureux's comments on the similarity in bond trading now and prior to the 1987 crash? I'd be interested if he has a point here.

Yes, back then few saw it coming, and this time no one will notice...the crash will come out of no where, the online trading has changed the speed of any movement...up or down.

Ben Laws · #**2963** (**permalink**) 06-16-2009, 06:23 PM

Hi guys.

I got in late and shorted the pair @ 1.13500 and now its lingering at around -50 pips,

Does anyone have any educated estimates as to the effect of recent news announcements on the trend? and why?

excuse my uneducatedness, Im new lol!

FYI stops are at -100 and limit at 200. are these realistic/ok/whatever?

Thanks.

leithtec · #**2964** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 01:43 AM

What do you Think ? ... Time for a Drop?

leithtec · #**2965** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 01:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Laws

Hi guys.

I got in late and shorted the pair @ 1.13500 and now its lingering at around -50 pips,

Does anyone have any educated estimates as to the effect of recent news announcements on the trend? and why?

excuse my uneducatedness, Im new lol!

FYI stops are at -100 and limit at 200. are these realistic/ok/whatever?

Thanks.

Your Present Trading Reality depends entirely on what Timeframe You are Feeling (viewing) this Market in ... if You're following more than One ... Good Luck. So decide ... is it Hourly? ... every 4H? ... Daily? ... two minutes (ya baby!!!). The last two 4H Swings on this USD/CAD Pair have been 425 to 435 pips respectively. The last 1H Swings have measured 219 to299 pips ... while the last two 1H Swings have measured 124 pips ... so arrange Your Day around Your comfort zone. That's the beauty of Currency Markets ... they're very much driven by Social Mood ... which is easily viewed mathematically. Get yourself One of William Gann's early Books. Hey I just noticed ... this Market is sitting right on current Equilibrium at 1.1302. Measure "Time" ... not Dollars.

adam6655nyc · #**2966** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Your Present Trading Reality depends entirely on what Timeframe You are Feeling (viewing) this Market in ... if You're following more than One ... Good Luck. So decide ... is it Hourly? ... every 4H? ... Daily? ... two minutes (ya baby!!!). The last two 4H Swings on this USD/CAD Pair have been 425 to 435 pips respectively. The last 1H Swings have measured 219 to299 pips ... while the last two 1H Swings have measured 124 pips ... so arrange Your Day around Your comfort zone. That's the beauty of Currency Markets ... they're very much driven by Social Mood ... which is easily viewed mathematically. Get yourself One of William Gann's early Books. Hey I just noticed ... this Market is sitting right on current Equilibrium at 1.1302. Measure "Time" ... not Dollars.

what is your take on this price actions in the last two days, I remember you called the 10938 bottom couple of days ago, and you were correct, it held that line....now I see it topping around 1.1350-75....but no buyers to push it

John Kicklighter · #**2967** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

It's building this morning. The dollar is strong across the board. Talk of intervention across the commodity bloc (don't know how much weight I would put into it; but it doesn't hurt).

Already took profit on the first jaunt into the position for 170 points. Allowing the rest of built-up position to run.

My CADJPY position has also played out nicely - though it looks like the pivot at 85.85/95 is going to hold up progress. After such a sharp decline, it may be difficult to find follow through. Moving up my stop to secure some profit.

I keep trailing my stop on the second half of my USDCAD position to below the previous session's low. However, I'm thinking of taking profit ahead of 1.15. Notable Fib congestion in the area. I will look to see if it stalls and make my decision. What do you guys think? We will see the breaks thrown ahead of this level?

I see there is growing speculation of this pair topping soon.

leithtec · #**2968** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

what is your take on this price actions in the last two days, I remember you called the 10938 bottom couple of days ago, and you were correct, it held that line....now I see it topping around 1.1350-75....but no buyers to push it

I'm just waiting for this 1H contracting triangle to the upside (which began on Wed June 10th) to run it's course along the 45% 4H line (which began on June 1st) ... before deciding on another Short ... Today's Closing Price and Volume will reveal more. It didn't take long for this Pair to head straight for the 1.1480 Price area ... which is also a tell ... quite a tell actually. Like I mentioned before ... if waiting is required ... then I wait ... allowing the Market to set-up Fully for the next Swing. Trying to push a Market will cost You more Dollars ... and teach You more about Time. Let's see where today Closes in relation to yesterday's Close of 1.1358 ... and then take the temperature again.

leithtec · #**2969** (**permalink**) 06-18-2009, 07:03 AM

Anything below 1.1276 should bring in additional short-term selling ... with 1.1379 holding as the intermediate Top ... should the 1.1379 Price area break to the upside ... then another run at the recent High of 1.1451 is likely. With the latest Equilibrium of 1.1302 acting as a magnet ... this USD/CAD Pair seems comfortable on either side of it for the Time being ... also keep an eye on Today's Pivot price of 1.1350 acting as (nemesis) either support or resistance. I realize that this information may or may not help You ... until this Market moves ... it will simply feign either way above or below 1.1302 ... so the question that I must ask myself is ... what are the visible (or invisible) factors that would keep this Pair above yesterday's Closing Price of 1.1319? ... and will I be satisfied with app. 100 pips below 1.1226 ... to the 1.1126 Price area after this round of deliberation? ... or will I be getting out at 1.1276 with my Daily 20+ pip Scalp?

John Kicklighter · #**2970** (**permalink**) 06-18-2009, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I keep trailing my stop on the second half of my USDCAD position to below the previous session's low. However, I'm thinking of taking profit ahead of 1.15. Notable Fib congestion in the area. I will look to see if it stalls and make my decision. What do you guys think? We will see the breaks thrown ahead of this level?

I see there is growing speculation of this pair topping soon.

Out at 1.1335. This move seems to have lost its drive. Not saying the bias has changed; but the momentum is gone.

Sticking with my CADJPY flip however. Already hit my first target at plus 100. If this plays out as expected, we could get a significant swing back up towards the top of the rising trend channel.