From Bloomberg
"Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, in a speech in Regina, Saskatchewan, said the nation’s households face rising “stresses” that could lead to losses for banks. He reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates unchanged for a year and repeated comments from a speech last week that the global economy will not rebound quickly from recession"


My Long USD/CAD is hold with target of 1.18-1.19 by the end of Augast.

still hold my position it is 24 K in the green at the moment,,well done to me

thank you for the info

Anyone else see Benjamin Tal and especially Barry Allen (Marret Asset Mgmt) talking today about CAD/USD going up fast? Far, far above par.
Mr Allen forecasts CAD = $1.25 U.S. in 12 months.

Great call so far. So you are not too concerned with the price of oil/commodities going up?

That is a very bold statement. What are they basing it on?

Geepers ... the way You's are all carrying on ... go Read the Life of Jesse Livermore ..."Reminiscences of A Stock Operator". Trust me. Just Do It. That this USD/CAD Pair will Close above last Weeks Close of 1.1185 is pretty much a given ... by HOW much is the question ... with Current Equilibrium at 1.1302 and Today's Pivot at 1.1309 ... if You want to begin learning HOW to Read a Market ... this is a Good Place to start.

I always enjoy your comments, I read that book three times and everytime I read it I learn something new

So you still holding your position, I admire you for that...I sold at 1.1405 and I regret I did that, because I can not go back with my 1.09 initial entry point
Too bad...I will miss the way up

You've done well then ... to get out at that Price with such a Gain ... You don't want to be holding a Long position with Parabolic SAR Dots showing on Top of the 4H Chart anyway's (like now) ... just get back in when the Dots show up again Below the 4H Chart. Even though the Dots are currently Below on the Daily ... You will still get more Pippage playing the 4H Swings. I'm currently not Long on this USD/CAD Pair ... in fact all of the Pips that I've taken this Week (189 so far) have been Short sales ... five Scalps to the downside using the 4H ... 1H and 15 min Parabolic SAR dots with Trendlines ... Screen Oscillators and mainly (as I've mentioned many Times) tracking Volume on the 4H William's %R to give me the next Swing. I don't take the whole Swing either as I'm satisfied with my 20+ pips Daily. I can do this because my System is already gauging the Strength of the Larger Timeframes. As an example ... Equilibrium is currently resting at 1.1302 ... Today's Pivot Price is 1.1309 ... yesterday's pivot price is 1.1350 ... so why would I be Long if the market is currently Below both Daily Pivots? Even though the Weekly Pivot is sitting at 1.1141 ... there's Lots of Room for this market to move. There are smaller Swings within the Larger Ones. If this is too much ... simply pull up a MacD on the 4H and let that be Your Swing indicator within the Larger Daily and Weekly Trends ... you'll still take Lots of Pips.

Expect a swing up next week with the return to 1.3 coming sooner than you think.

While a few months ago the CAD was trading at $1.30 to the USD, what technical or fundamental evidence do you have that shows the CAD will return to the $1.30 to USD level soon? Seems like the CAD is getting stronger against the USD and holding at $1.13

I dont think the pullback in equities or oil will be big enough to go to 1.30, but I've seen 2 margin calls in my experience. How far would oil have to fall to recouple with natural gas? Isnt natural gas inventory high, so it probably wont climb to meet oil at 70. And then there's Gold and next week's FED statement. Is this how CAD ends up in ranges where the many factors fight it out?

A combination of persistent US$ weakness reflecting a lengthy malaise of the US economy, and the rise of the Asian consumer creating a voracious appetite for commodities and Canadian exports. You can probably find the transcript on bnn.ca, or perhaps hervonsteiner might dig it up again.

In my humble opinion no, it isn't. The more I think about this difficult issue the less likely such a rise in the CAD could seem possible. I suggest you go on Google and search for "RISING LOONIE". Hundreds of Canadian-sourced hits pop up and 99% of them are negative: fear, export revenue and job losses are associated with a rising Loonie. The Canadian economy is nothing but an appendage of that of the U.S. and is seen as such by the whole world. Just look at the facts: when the U.S.'s appears to improve, immediately the CAD is expected to decline. When the U.S.'s is on the skids and the USD declines in terms of the majors, again the CAD is expected to decline because after all Canadian exports are adversely impacted. The only reason the CAD may buck this trend temporarily is the rise of the price of commodities. Analysts here and elsewhere trumpet this "truth" regularly: The CAD should go down no matter where it is (commodities are only distorting this universal law of nature)

But what way is open to the BOC to interfere and lower the CAD to make everybody happy (except the snowbirds) ? There isn't any room left to lower the prime. It can't go 0, after all. New debt borrowing? But who will lend at 0.5%? Not me, nor anyone else.
There is only one way left: inflate and start printing. That should do it: the infamous Quantitative Easing. Oh, but the FED is already doing that big time. So even that may not do it. I don't know the answer and neither does Carney or anyone else. We are in good company.

Let's for the sake of fun go down the path everybody so ardently wishes for:
1 CAD = 0.60 USD coupled with the much less ardently wished for 1 EUR = 2.00 USD. So what happens to the poor Loonie in world trade?
That would give - sigh - 1 EUR = 3.33 CAD.

This "fun" outcome is not at all so absurd given that the USD will be more and more under attack due to well-known reasons. And if Canadians are so eager to be attached to a cheap currency their whole economy will be dragged down into the gutter. Everything of value left sold off cheaply not yet mentioning inflation. Even their exports have more than 40% import content.

And I am not even a socialist with those views.

Regards

$ seems at a major cross roads. On the one hand we have record sales of treasury junk bonds which extract $ out of american economy, hence creating money deficit. On the other hand, trade deficits and smarter foreigners makes for lots of $ surplus outside of america. Last week the $ seems to have entered somekind of an awkward pattern, $/CAD basically moved sideways but with long wicks which is food for thought.

My opinion is that we have some more consolidation in the 1.10 +/-.05 area and then some kind of a head fake. After that there's likely a real big move coming which will offer plenty for those on the right side of the trade.