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06-16-2005, 11:34 AM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 507
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hey mac hope you kept those shorts. I see very little res until 1.22-.50 range. Might be a rebound back to 1.2430, but the trend is down. Holding, looking for 1.2110.
gl
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06-16-2005, 11:38 AM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 507
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buying, no touch options @1.2475 to protect my shorts. Also buying digital options at 1.2310, 1.2200 and a large block at 1.2067.
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06-16-2005, 04:20 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18
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Hi Profix10
I ll have two shorts still opened I closed the third yesterday I am familiar with options but have not heard the terminoligy on the ones you opened to cover.
We need to get rid of Barrier option 1.2345 as it seems to be well protected and then down to 1.2210.
Mac
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06-17-2005, 05:37 PM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 507
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if we dont see a rebound by tuesday, we will see 1.20 and maybe a break of 1.17 (very bearish outlook)
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06-17-2005, 11:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18
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Hi Profx10
The big blue had A ugly week and I have closed out all my shorts,
my only concern on the C$ going up is the BOC does not want to see high $ , And only two months ago mouths from several prominent Canadian banks were forecasting 77 cents same time oil was going south those three have lots of power to keep eveything in line.
Makes for intresting range as I trade on Bi weekly basis for long term and daily.
Mac
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06-21-2005, 02:28 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1
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I decided to go long on CAD/JPY, with oil prices rising this can only cause harm to the JPY. I am expecting to have gains in the next two days. Japan has been struggling with oil prices since it imports 99% of oil I am hoping to see a rebound.
I def. agree not to go long w/ USD/CAD!
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06-22-2005, 09:38 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9
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Yesterday I longed USD/CAD at 1.2324. I decided to long the dollar on account of the MACD crossing above the signal line. Also, the RSI was just above the oversold line on the 1 hr 5 day chart. This is not meant to be a long term trade, and so far I am profiting.
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06-22-2005, 02:51 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1
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Fundamentally Bullish?
This pair has been confusing me lately, I feel like all evidence calls for a CAD$ long; however, when I look at the charts I just cant get myself to do it. Its economy is doing well, interest rates may rise in the near future and oil prices are on the rebound (even though this does not have as strong a correlation with the USDCAD as most people would imagine). So whats going on here then?
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06-22-2005, 04:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 6
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Re: oil
Quote:
Originally posted by TraderJon
In addition to the reasons mentioned, as oil prices continue to rise, shorting the USD will continue to be a profitable venture. The CAD is the biggest beneficiary when oil prices rise because they are the largest exporter to the US and trail only Saudi Arabia in reserves held. One thing to watch out for though is if OPEC does in fact increase production of oil.
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There is definetly a correlation between oil and the loonie however i think that people sometimes believe that it is stonger than it really is. I would defiently look carefully at other indicators prior to placing a trade as. I've heard that it's a .4% correlation - not sure how accurate that number is but it gives you an idea.
-cheers |
06-22-2005, 08:40 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 20
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I don't like where the USD/CAD is sitting right now - technically and fundamentally. The pair is sitting in a huge wedge on the daily chart and it just keeps getting to the apex without picking a real direction. Fundamentally it is really beginning to confuse me. When all the commodity prices (oil, iron ore, gold, etc.) spiked yesterday, the pair didn't respond. Economic releases on the other hand seem to be cheering up a little bit with retail sales and autos looking better, but where do you look for real market hitting news. In April, the pair reacted to every little piece of news about the budget vote, but last week's budget vote did nothing to the pair. It seems all the action is piggy-backing of of the EURUSD action. Hope you guys have some insight.
p.s. I hope everyone is watching the USD/CHF. It is running in a steep channel for the past two months and is meeting resistance at a big 50% fibo level
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06-23-2005, 12:31 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18
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Hi Mouse
You are correct today the pair were in range even with oil/gold declining, I feel all the good news is built into the c$ in near term.
My daily chart put me in A long position yesterday at 1.2280
It is only small position as hedge against upside.
Mac
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06-23-2005, 08:54 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9
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The USD/CAD is also confusing me a lot lately. I'm still in a long postion and still profiting, however, now i am confused as to when to close my position. All the fundamental data points to shorting this position. I longed this position based on technical analysis on a 1 hr chart. At the moment I'm not sure what direction the RSI and MACD will go. The MACD line has been hovering over the signal line for the past few hours, and it is hard to tell if it will finally cross below it or continue upward. I'm staying long for now because the EMA is positive.
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06-23-2005, 02:57 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 12
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i shorted the usd/cad at 1.235
however i am kinda unsure as to what to expect. The rsi is almost at 30 so im beginning to feel that its oversold..i just cant make myself buy
--i guess ill just keep losing money
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06-23-2005, 03:03 PM
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Guru Legend
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 25
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Quote:
Originally posted by Inna86
i shorted the usd/cad at 1.235
however i am kinda unsure as to what to expect. The rsi is almost at 30 so im beginning to feel that its oversold..i just cant make myself buy
--i guess ill just keep losing money
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Thats the spirit.....losing money........come on Inna.........
You have to believe in yourself....trading is very psychological....you win some you lose some....the goal is to maximize the profits and minimize the losses....Just keep practicing and keep your head up....Learn from your mistakes.....
My words of wisdom for the day: "Practice makes perfect"
__________________
-The Guru
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06-23-2005, 05:16 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 20
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I think the CAD will not react to commodity prices the way it should until the dollar has worked out its issues. I think people are waiting to see if growth will keep up or if has reached a point of equilibrium.
Technically, I am waiting for it to break the falling trendline that starts on June 18, 2004 and runs to May 26th of this year. That brings the line at about 1.26 which is also a 38.2% fibo level. There is also a rising support line coming up starting with the Nov 29th low. We are in the lower end of the wedge and at a 25% fibo (1.2293), so I am considering a long position for 100-150 pips. What do you guys think?
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