USD/CAD - Page 202

leithtec · #**3016** (**permalink**) 07-05-2009, 06:38 PM

The same sentiment holds as my last Post ... This USD/CAD Pair must break above the 1.1635 to 1.1641 area in order to Signal Higher prices ... and I'm not ruling out an early Swing Low on the Week ... getting Below 1.1528 in order to test whether another round of Buying comes in ... with extended Lows down to around the 1.1421 price area fulfilling the initial downside Cloud should the Bulls head for the exit door. Either way ... up or down ... the Swing should be fulfilled Timewise into Thursday or early Friday of this Week. It is difficult to pick a Top in any Market ... and I don't recommend it ... but it is a good idea to be aware of the Time involved as extensions and Running Volume curve towards or away from one another.

andruha · #**3017** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 09:36 PM

we continue to consolidate in the 1.16 area, unable to progress even as the oil drops $2 on the day. The daily structure looks short term bearish, possibly reaching 1.15 in the next 24h before rebounding. This level represents exact fib retracement of 38.2% and acts as a barrier right now. waiting for a head fake.

SkiBunny · #**3018** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kengur28

hello everyone...

did we see today the bottom in crude oil?

Heck, no!

leithtec · #**3019** (**permalink**) 07-07-2009, 11:38 AM

This USD/CAD pair is setting up nicely after having taken out 1.1565 on the Low end this morning ... let's watch to see if 1.1658 gets taken out on the High end as Thurs July 9th approaches ... seeing that Price has Now been fulfilled ... early? ... perhaps ... leaving "Time" to play with ... Observe.

John Kicklighter · #**3020** (**permalink**) 07-07-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andruha

we continue to consolidate in the 1.16 area, unable to progress even as the oil drops $2 on the day. The daily structure looks short term bearish, possibly reaching 1.15 in the next 24h before rebounding. This level represents exact fib retracement of 38.2% and acts as a barrier right now. waiting for a head fake.

There has been a sharp drop in the rolling, short-term correlation between crude and USDCAD recently.

Personally, I think it is due to quieted growth and investment-based considerations and specific activity in the commodity group.

Anyone see the article on Bloomberg.com about how they are trying to crack down further on speculative interests in the commodity world. In my futures courses in college, my professors (one of them was the former president of the NYBOT) hammered into us the necessity of speculators for price discovery, spreads and liquidity. Clearly these regulators don't think that is important....

leithtec · #**3021** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 04:43 AM

This USD/CAD Pair continues to test the upper end of this Price Range between 1.1682 and 1.1546 ... which is tight given the recent volatility ... so a Breakout is imminent ... and the choice is obvious ... it's now a matter of avoiding a possible shakeout before choosing Your side.

Divakar · #**3022** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 05:24 AM

Hi, Do u think it will be wise to go for short now

....ur comment pl.....

thanks
divakar

andruha · #**3023** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Divakar

Hi, Do u think it will be wise to go for short now

....ur comment pl.....

thanks
divakar

i think seasonality trends of the past suggest $/CAD appreciation this month. Add to that the recent sideways stroll and I say it's there's more potential in the GBP pairs as of late.

adam6655nyc · #**3024** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

There has been a sharp drop in the rolling, short-term correlation between crude and USDCAD recently.

Personally, I think it is due to quieted growth and investment-based considerations and specific activity in the commodity group.

Anyone see the article on Bloomberg.com about how they are trying to crack down further on speculative interests in the commodity world. In my futures courses in college, my professors (one of them was the former president of the NYBOT) hammered into us the necessity of speculators for price discovery, spreads and liquidity. Clearly these regulators don't think that is important....

They always think they know what they are doing...but they end up hurting not helping...but at the same time...Oil is a very sensitive commodity and it effects the economy, so they feel the need to do something just to look like they are doing their job.

andruha · #**3025** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

They always think they know what they are doing...but they end up hurting not helping...but at the same time...Oil is a very sensitive commodity and it effects the economy, so they feel the need to do something just to look like they are doing their job.

i know, bloomberg forecasts is just like obamanomics - sugarcoated cr*p. Just few weeks ago they were all drumming up GBP (it traded 1.65 at the time) eventhough it was clearly on a sideways stroll. I was watching the charts which looked toppish and yet they have 3 or 4 'analysts' one of after the other conveyor style predicting 1.80 GBP/USD. What a bluff. I think one needs to be suspicious of fake analysts and listen to the ones that have caution in their voice or something like that.

The latest of their scams is the second stimulus which is obviously necessary because the first one wasn't big enough. as if we're not crashing bad enough already this m*******ers are preparing tighten the nuts even more. what a joke

Bongoman · #**3026** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 08:47 AM

Possibly a push to higher to 16300+ anyone been trading using MA and the Rsi ..this has proved very successful for me on currency trading.

Bongo

leithtec · #**3027** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

This USD/CAD Pair continues to test the upper end of this Price Range between 1.1682 and 1.1546 ... which is tight given the recent volatility ... so a Breakout is imminent ... and the choice is obvious ... it's now a matter of avoiding a possible shakeout before choosing Your side.

This 45 pip shakeout above 1.1682 yesterday seemed more like a legitimate move to the upside ... Closing yesterday at 1.1677 ... 10 pips above Tuesday's Close ... therefore in order to see more downside ... this USD/CAD Pair must now get below 1.1546 ... I'll know more after Today's Close ... measuring the distance below 1.1677.

John Kicklighter · #**3028** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andruha

i know, bloomberg forecasts is just like obamanomics - sugarcoated cr*p. Just few weeks ago they were all drumming up GBP (it traded 1.65 at the time) eventhough it was clearly on a sideways stroll. I was watching the charts which looked toppish and yet they have 3 or 4 'analysts' one of after the other conveyor style predicting 1.80 GBP/USD. What a bluff. I think one needs to be suspicious of fake analysts and listen to the ones that have caution in their voice or something like that.

The latest of their scams is the second stimulus which is obviously necessary because the first one wasn't big enough. as if we're not crashing bad enough already this m*******ers are preparing tighten the nuts even more. what a joke

Just like death and sex sells in the regular media, financial journalism looks to fluff up the most bombastic forecasts to attract readers. It's hard to filter out the junk.

John Kicklighter · #**3029** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 11:01 AM

While congestion seems to be exceedingly consistent in USDCAD (I have a small long position from 1.1560 from this morning); I think EURCAD chop may come to something more. I'm already trading USCAD short-term, but I'm really looking for a breakout from the euro-based pair.

rfalade · #**3030** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 12:45 PM

Hi John, for the benefit of a beginner like me. Do you mean is going to go bearish
Thanks Rachel