USD/CAD - Page 203

John Kicklighter · #**3031** (**permalink**) 07-09-2009, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rfalade

Hi John, for the benefit of a beginner like me. Do you mean is going to go bearish
Thanks Rachel

After today's break, I'm on the sidelines. The general trend has been broken from that short-term wedge break. However, we have stalled out after retesting the previous swing high at 1.6325.

If you think things will be quiet tomorrow, it could be a range opportunity between here and 1.6150. However, we have significant Canadian event risk tomorrow morning.

The cautious approach would be to wait until after the data and look for a confirmed break beyond 1.6325 or 1.6150 for direction.

Divakar · #**3032** (**permalink**) 07-10-2009, 01:40 AM

Hi, After today's news about Canadian Employment, about after 5 hours, what as per ur view one shd go for LONG/SHORT......IF news is more then expected negative...?..Pl ur comment. As per Mr. Ilya Spivak
to hold for long position.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

After today's break, I'm on the sidelines. The general trend has been broken from that short-term wedge break. However, we have stalled out after retesting the previous swing high at 1.6325.

If you think things will be quiet tomorrow, it could be a range opportunity between here and 1.6150. However, we have significant Canadian event risk tomorrow morning.

The cautious approach would be to wait until after the data and look for a confirmed break beyond 1.6325 or 1.6150 for direction.

John Kicklighter · #**3033** (**permalink**) 07-10-2009, 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Divakar

Hi, After today's news about Canadian Employment, about after 5 hours, what as per ur view one shd go for LONG/SHORT......IF news is more then expected negative...?..Pl ur comment. As per Mr. Ilya Spivak
to hold for long position.....

I took profit on my USDCAD long position from yesterday a little while ago. The market is getting choppier; and I think a breakout will likely develop sometime next week. I'm not going to take a bias though. I'll wait for confirmed direction.

I'm more interested in EURCAD. The range is far more clear.

qed · #**3034** (**permalink**) 07-10-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I took profit on my USDCAD long position from yesterday a little while ago. The market is getting choppier; and I think a breakout will likely develop sometime next week. I'm not going to take a bias though. I'll wait for confirmed direction.

I'm more interested in EURCAD. The range is far more clear.

It feels like the USDCAD is running out of gas on the long side.

I think that Chrysler is starting to ramp of poduction early, and cash for clunkers goes into effect on July 23rd. This had a very positive effect on factory order and production numbers in Europe. Canada has a very large exporter of auto parts and autos to the U.S. Do you think that "Cash for Clunkers" will have a positive effect on the Canadian dollar as the auto secor ramps up again?

insider26 · #**3035** (**permalink**) 07-10-2009, 04:37 PM

with tumbling oil, falling yields and retreating equities next week,,
USDCAD eyes 1.1690, a break of which to take us towards this weeks high of $1.1825.
the trend is firm to the up side

trthsekr · #**3036** (**permalink**) 07-11-2009, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

This USD/CAD Pair continues to test the upper end of this Price Range between 1.1682 and 1.1546 ... which is tight given the recent volatility ... so a Breakout is imminent ... and the choice is obvious ... it's now a matter of avoiding a possible shakeout before choosing Your side.

Hey all,

Just kind of stumbled on this thread and it's ironic...I went long in USD/CAD last week as soon (around lunch time) as I heard that oil was plummeting (I work outside and don't have full time access to the news). Folks --- I took a bath, the SECOND I hit the buy button this thing reversed and hit a 40 pip Stop Loss in what seemed a micro second.

OK, I'm done crying (and exaggerating -- a little --) but when do you foresee the best time for someone to get in, long or short, bearing in mind that I can't "ride the charts"? I can sneak back to them (charts/computer) about every 2 1/2 hours to make changes, although I believe in letting the trades run themselves out.

The biggest problem is that there is good and bad news coming out of Canada as well as the US. What to do, what to do...

cprao · #**3037** (**permalink**) 07-11-2009, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I took profit on my USDCAD long position from yesterday a little while ago. The market is getting choppier; and I think a breakout will likely develop sometime next week. I'm not going to take a bias though. I'll wait for confirmed direction.

I'm more interested in EURCAD. The range is far more clear.

John, On getting a hint from your chart, following is my technical analysis and with a fundamental question.

-----------------------
Currently in range mode between 1.6131 and 1.6334 after the uptrend started from 1.5373 on 06/08/2009. Has a potential to resume the uptrend once it breaks the current resistane at 1.6334. Since This resistance line also coinciding with downward trend line, on breaking these two lines (resistance line and downward trend line, I belive there is a good potential to continue the up trend. The profit targets could be 1.6842 & 1.6989.
But now the question is - what is the potential that it could break the resistance line and downward trend line ? What are the fundamental factors that could trigger this upward break ?

Any thoughts, please ?
-------------------------------------------

leithtec · #**3038** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 12:57 AM

Running Volume on the Daily has dropped backed down to match previous Volume Lows (over the past Month) while climbing 800+ pips. Time was fulfilled (uneventfully) on the Daily ... Thursday July 9th ... coinciding with the previous Day's High 1.1727 ... leaving the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud to Now be fulfilled on the downside by app. 300+ pips below last Week's 10 Week MA of 1.1638 ... leaving us with an initial downside Swing to around the 1.1338 Price area. A break below 1.1550 on the 4H may have difficulty recovering back up to the 1.1640 Price area.

John Kicklighter · #**3039** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

It feels like the USDCAD is running out of gas on the long side.

I think that Chrysler is starting to ramp of poduction early, and cash for clunkers goes into effect on July 23rd. This had a very positive effect on factory order and production numbers in Europe. Canada has a very large exporter of auto parts and autos to the U.S. Do you think that "Cash for Clunkers" will have a positive effect on the Canadian dollar as the auto secor ramps up again?

I don't know how much of an impact it will have realistically on the currency. It will certainly not see an immediate reflection. It will probably evolve over a few months of Ivey PMI and manufacturing orders reports; but autos and parts only make up a fraction of the nation's exports. And, in that time, perhaps Stevens or Harper enacts unforeseen policy or commodities post a record breaking rally.

In the end, it will probably be a modest driver and will either contribute or dampen broader rallies.

John Kicklighter · #**3040** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cprao

John, On getting a hint from your chart, following is my technical analysis and with a fundamental question.

-----------------------
Currently in range mode between 1.6131 and 1.6334 after the uptrend started from 1.5373 on 06/08/2009. Has a potential to resume the uptrend once it breaks the current resistane at 1.6334. Since This resistance line also coinciding with downward trend line, on breaking these two lines (resistance line and downward trend line, I belive there is a good potential to continue the up trend. The profit targets could be 1.6842 & 1.6989.
But now the question is - what is the potential that it could break the resistance line and downward trend line ? What are the fundamental factors that could trigger this upward break ?

Any thoughts, please ?
-------------------------------------------

There are a few notable indicators on both sides of the economic calendar; but nothing that I would say is necessarily worthy of a breakout. I think this week is rather fundamentally quiet; and it may be because of that fact that we can actually see a breakout. Usually when there are few events to hold out for and no releases to interfere with trends; you can see sentiment swell and force breakouts on its own.

I'm waiting for a break here. Took a small long position at 1.16 this morning and already took profit of plus 45. This pair is running out of space; so I don't think I can really pull any more short-term swings out of it. That is a good thing though; because the next step is a breakout. The 60-minute chart has a nice, flat head-and-shoulders formation which is good should this slow ascending wedge formation be a topping one. However, I'm not sure 1.16 is a better neckline than 1.15. Nor do I think a push above 1.1675 and then 1.1725 likely to generate a lot of momentum.

What do you guys think?

qed · #**3041** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't know how much of an impact it will have realistically on the currency. It will certainly not see an immediate reflection. It will probably evolve over a few months of Ivey PMI and manufacturing orders reports; but autos and parts only make up a fraction of the nation's exports. And, in that time, perhaps Stevens or Harper enacts unforeseen policy or commodities post a record breaking rally.

In the end, it will probably be a modest driver and will either contribute or dampen broader rallies.

Motor vehicles and parts look like a pretty substantial component of exports to me, exceeding crude oil according to Nationmaster.

Here are the exports of commodities with the largest being at the top of the list.

<<motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment; chemicals, plastics, fertilizers; wood pulp, timber, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, aluminum>>

Exports commodities (most recent) by country

John Kicklighter · #**3042** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

Motor vehicles and parts look like a pretty substantial component of exports to me, exceeding crude oil according to Nationmaster.

Here are the exports of commodities with the largest being at the top of the list.

<<motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, aircraft, telecommunications equipment; chemicals, plastics, fertilizers; wood pulp, timber, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, aluminum>>

Exports commodities (most recent) by country

I'd recommend going directly to the source for that data at the Stats Canada website.

As for the overall size of the components, energy is about twice the size of automotive exports. But in the end, that matters little. They are just modest contributors to a larger whole;and then you need to filter in the offsetting impact of imports. And, don't forget; the incentives in the US come with a pretty clear 'buy American' clause. While the rules may help Canada overall, it will also help the US manufacturers and the exchange rate is a relative value.

That USDCAD break below 1.16 is looking good so far.

Firstfx · #**3043** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 10:31 PM

So John,

Is the trend pointed down? From your chart the US/Cad appears to be turning down.

Alternatively wondering if the trends is still up from its early June low of about 1.08 and subsequent June 11 price of 1.095. If the pair does not reverse from it current 1.1520 state soon and start to move up again then perhaps it will continue to fall in a downward trend. Any support for this theory? What do you think?

On a seperate note I am tring to add a picture showing above trend line. Any way to add an adobe file or download a pic here from my computer hard drive?

Firstfx · #**3044** (**permalink**) 07-13-2009, 10:52 PM

Here you go:

Thomas Long · #**3045** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 08:26 AM

HOW TO POST CHARTS:

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