USD/CAD - Page 204

leithtec · #**3046** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 10:25 AM

Here's what my 4H Chart looks like.

Sorry ... I'll work on getting a Chart up ... I've got a slightly different package. So this USD/CAD Pair is nearing the forecasted Cloud extension Low of 1.1338 today with a possible drop to 1.1277 ... and it's getting there rather quickly since this Week's Open which usually happens once Time fulfills into a tight sideways range as we recently observed ... so a Measurement of the first bounce on the 4H will reveal the next Swing as mid Month happens ... tomorrow ... on a Wednesday (which may be Pivotal) ... I hope my Posts are helping some of You guys ... once I'm able to get my Charts on board You'll be able to view my set-up.

mach9 · #**3047** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 12:42 PM

I'm looking for a bounce off 1.135
Just read Joel Kruger's Oversold EUR/CAD article.
Euro/Cad Long Taken with Intraday Studies Severely Oversold (Daily Classical)
Not sure how that will play out, looks like going long there is a good play.
Feeling the USD is stable for now with further strength to come.
Any more thoughts on the oversold EUR/CAD ?

qed · #**3048** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I'd recommend going directly to the source for that data at the Stats Canada website.

As for the overall size of the components, energy is about twice the size of automotive exports. But in the end, that matters little. They are just modest contributors to a larger whole;and then you need to filter in the offsetting impact of imports. And, don't forget; the incentives in the US come with a pretty clear 'buy American' clause. While the rules may help Canada overall, it will also help the US manufacturers and the exchange rate is a relative value.

That USDCAD break below 1.16 is looking good so far.

Thanks, I appreciate the link to that website.

John Kicklighter · #**3049** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firstfx

So John,

Is the trend pointed down? From your chart the US/Cad appears to be turning down.

Alternatively wondering if the trends is still up from its early June low of about 1.08 and subsequent June 11 price of 1.095. If the pair does not reverse from it current 1.1520 state soon and start to move up again then perhaps it will continue to fall in a downward trend. Any support for this theory? What do you think?

I think this was one of the most clear cut breakouts from this pair in some time. I have already taken profit from a short at 1.1540 at plus plus 80 on a first half and 140 on a second.

This is a good shift in trend in my books; but we are likely to see a correction before confirming any new trends. I am watching the congestion zone between 1.1260 and 1.0950 as a possible, temporary buffer to continuation.

raulin · #**3050** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Here's what my 4H Chart looks like.

Sorry ... I'll work on getting a Chart up ... I've got a slightly different package. So this USD/CAD Pair is nearing the forecasted Cloud extension Low of 1.1338 today with a possible drop to 1.1277 ... and it's getting there rather quickly since this Week's Open which usually happens once Time fulfills into a tight sideways range as we recently observed ... so a Measurement of the first bounce on the 4H will reveal the next Swing as mid Month happens ... tomorrow ... on a Wednesday (which may be Pivotal) ... I hope my Posts are helping some of You guys ... once I'm able to get my Charts on board You'll be able to view my set-up.

Hi Leithtec Are you using Gann time principle or wave principle with ichimoku ? What is a cloud extension ?The down move was a big surprise for me I was very frustrated with this pair and expected upward move. I think the clue here is that oil tanked YET usd/cad did not rocket higher indicating dollar weakness. Price for me is very bearish waiting for 4 hr break of monthly pivot pink line in chart to use as resistance with target at 61.8 fib at 1.1141 between monthly M1 and S2 pivot yellow lines. My Gartley projection failed to project price which just blasted thro to 138.2 fib extension

asherewt · #**3051** (**permalink**) 07-14-2009, 10:21 PM

I've just closed my USDCAD short position all the way from 1.1640

Good luck to all.

leithtec · #**3052** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 06:43 AM

Dear Raulin ... I use the "TIME" principle for all of my Daily projections ... I'm surprised that You didn't see this One coming as Your Ichimoku Chart (Senkou span) is showing clearly that this drop is probable. I've never been able to account for holding both a Technical perspective along with Fundamental information at the same Time ... it's One or the other for me ... perhaps this is the issue for Your uncertainty ... holding two views. A Cloud extension is the difference between Today's 10 Day MA and Today's lowest or highest price ... depending on whether the Market is above or below the current 10 Day MA ... for example the top Cloud maxed out at 339 pips above that Day's 10 Day Ma on June 22nd with a High of 1.1558 ... from there the Cloud (this Daily difference) began to drop ... even though the Market kept climbing Higher ... the first dip below "0" with that Day's Low came on July 7th ... yet still closing above the previous Day ... it took 3 Day's for this Market to finally Break to the downside. As of this writing ... this USD/CAD Pair has touched 274 pips below Today's 10 Day MA at 1.1304 ... so we are nearing (mirroring) the original 339 pip extension that occurred on June 22nd. Other mathematical factors are always observed and considered as well but I won't get into that right Now ... currently the William's %R on the Daily is showing that once this Market gets back above yesterday's Low of 1.1326 then a "Buy" Signal will be generated ... but "Time" (which must ALWAYS remain thee most important Factor) does not come to full term for this latest Swing until Monday July 20th ... and still ... in order to confirm yesterday's Close ... I still have to wait for Today to play out ... so I'll just scalp a Lower Timeframe with MacD over the 4H leaning until Monday arrives ... as this drop has been very kind to me and there is no sense in losing what I've gained this Week. If You're interested in How I calculate the "Time" element for this Pair ... that will be another Day.

adam6655nyc · #**3053** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Dear Raulin ... I use the "TIME" principle for all of my Daily projections ... I'm surprised that You didn't see this One coming as Your Ichimoku Chart (Senkou span) is showing clearly that this drop is probable. I've never been able to account for holding both a Technical perspective along with Fundamental information at the same Time ... it's One or the other for me ... perhaps this is the issue for Your uncertainty ... holding two views. A Cloud extension is the difference between Today's 10 Day MA and Today's lowest or highest price ... depending on whether the Market is above or below the current 10 Day MA ... for example the top Cloud maxed out at 339 pips above that Day's 10 Day Ma on June 22nd with a High of 1.1558 ... from there the Cloud (this Daily difference) began to drop ... even though the Market kept climbing Higher ... the first dip below "0" with that Day's Low came on July 7th ... yet still closing above the previous Day ... it took 3 Day's for this Market to finally Break to the downside. As of this writing ... this USD/CAD Pair has touched 274 pips below Today's 10 Day MA at 1.1304 ... so we are nearing (mirroring) the original 339 pip extension that occurred on June 22nd. Other mathematical factors are always observed and considered as well but i won't get into that right Now ... currently the William's %R on the Daily is showing that once this Market gets back above yesterday's Low of 1.1326 then a "Buy" Signal will be generated ... but "Time" (which must ALWAYS remain thee most important Factor) does not come to full term until Monday July 20th ... and still ... in order to confirm yesterday's Close ... I still have to wait for Today to play out ... so I'll just scalp a Lower Timeframe with MacD over the 4H leaning until Monday arrives ... as this drop has been very kind to me and there is no sense in losing what I've gained this Week.

You are the master of the USD/CAD pair.....do you trade any other pairs?

andruha · #**3054** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 08:14 AM

Ok, so we were supposed to climb in the $/CAD pair this month but instead my shorts turned profitable all of the sudden. If I understand this correctly, it's starting to look like a dollar crisis and we're standing at a doorstep of another wave of crazed liquidations in derivates and all things tied to american dollar which means every damn thing there is. Or is this just a head fake?

I'm really puzzled by the severity of this move. This morning just right now it plunged another bunch of pips and the move is starting to look a little crazed.

Let me put the numbers to this. Weekly candle is a red from 1.167 to 1.122 in a matter of three days, wtf kind of crep is that? 450pips in three days and we're not talking gbp/jpy here, this is a messed up move like I couldn't have expected. People just liquidating positions is what it looks like, this is not normal trade related fluctuations is it.

could it be obama stimuluses starting to eat dollar and america?

adam6655nyc · #**3055** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andruha

Ok, so we were supposed to climb in the $/CAD pair this month but instead my shorts turned profitable all of the sudden. If I understand this correctly, it's starting to look like a dollar crisis and we're standing at a doorstep of another wave of crazed liquidations in derivates and all things tied to american dollar which means every damn thing there is. Or is this just a head fake?

I'm really puzzled by the severity of this move. This morning just right now it plunged another bunch of pips and the move is starting to look a little crazed.

Let me put the numbers to this. Weekly candle is a red from 1.167 to 1.122 in a matter of three days, wtf kind of crep is that? 450pips in three days and we're not talking gbp/jpy here, this is a messed up move like I couldn't have expected. People just liquidating positions is what it looks like, this is not normal trade related fluctuations is it.

could it be obama stimuluses starting to eat dollar and america?

I do not trade this pair usually for that reason, out of no where, it moves up or down and numbers does not support any of it....I respect LEITHTEC opinion and he is always right on regarding this pair but no one explain why we went up or down...we all follow the chart but no logic behind the moves...that is why I only trade the extreme support and resist..

I went short from 1.30 with stop at 1.350 (50 pips all I can give this pair) and it worked wonderful...then I went long from 1.0816 risked another 50 pips and it worked...but got early lol

no need to trade it in the middle like now....wait till it breaks down or up to the extreme

Bongoman · #**3056** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 10:01 AM

Every man and his dog must now be long at this sharp sell off which is overdone. Anyone shorting / selling the USD/CAD will be nervous here.1 hr and 4 Hr extremely oversold

Bongo

John Kicklighter · #**3057** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andruha

Ok, so we were supposed to climb in the $/CAD pair this month but instead my shorts turned profitable all of the sudden. If I understand this correctly, it's starting to look like a dollar crisis and we're standing at a doorstep of another wave of crazed liquidations in derivates and all things tied to american dollar which means every damn thing there is. Or is this just a head fake?

I'm really puzzled by the severity of this move. This morning just right now it plunged another bunch of pips and the move is starting to look a little crazed.

Let me put the numbers to this. Weekly candle is a red from 1.167 to 1.122 in a matter of three days, wtf kind of crep is that? 450pips in three days and we're not talking gbp/jpy here, this is a messed up move like I couldn't have expected. People just liquidating positions is what it looks like, this is not normal trade related fluctuations is it.

could it be obama stimuluses starting to eat dollar and america?

I don't think this has anything to do specifically with the US. I certainly do not think it is related to speculation over their stimulus plan or guarantees.

If you take a look at the yen crosses, they are also showing a hard rally against the safe haven currency. What's more, equities and commodities are up strongly over the past few days. This means we are seeing a general risk is risk appetite (and the dollar is on the opposite side of that bill). I don't like to assign any specific 'reason' to shifts in sentiment; but earnings so far has been a reason for optimism among investors.

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

no need to trade it in the middle like now....wait till it breaks down or up to the extreme

I see what you're saying; but this could be considered an extreme depending on what time frame you are looking at (like an hourly chart).

leithtec · #**3058** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 12:16 PM

Bottom line ... once again ... is "anything can happen" ... if You keep this in mind at all Times it will allow for Open-ended thinking so that You can Go "with" the Market when it Goes ... and when a Market Keeps on Going ... You can pull in alot of $$$. Today this USD/CAD Pair has matched (slightly exceeded) the previous Cloud extension (on the Daily) at the Low of 1.1179 before stalling ... so the = sign has been reached ... still ... if this market drops even further ... then it drops even further ... I'm here to let this Market Tell me what it's going to do next ... that's what is so much fun about this (besides the coin) and if it attempts to test the previous Low of 1.0787 ... then bring it on. But for Now ... a Rest at this = sign Low of 1.1179 wouldn't be such a bad idea.

raulin · #**3059** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 04:12 PM

Leithec-fascinating stuff! I think time is the critical factor. Predicting when changes will occur is possibly THE most important part of trading. Best way i can do is with harmonics and Andrews pitchforks plus pivot points.You are right about the fundamentals but price action was giving me clues to dollar weakness which i chose to ignore. I would be really interested to hear how you predict when changes are occurring in price patterns

kind regards
Raulin

Bongoman · #**3060** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 04:23 PM

So long now 11167 , that 1 hr RSI is just drawing me in.

Bongo