USD/CAD - Page 205

adam6655nyc · #**3061** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't think this has anything to do specifically with the US. I certainly do not think it is related to speculation over their stimulus plan or guarantees.

If you take a look at the yen crosses, they are also showing a hard rally against the safe haven currency. What's more, equities and commodities are up strongly over the past few days. This means we are seeing a general risk is risk appetite (and the dollar is on the opposite side of that bill). I don't like to assign any specific 'reason' to shifts in sentiment; but earnings so far has been a reason for optimism among investors.

I see what you're saying; but this could be considered an extreme depending on what time frame you are looking at (like an hourly chart).

John, I love your interaction on this forum, you always there and you always right ...so keep it coming

as for the time frame, of course, you trade it according to your time frame, but the commodity currencies...move with sentiment...how you measure that ? how you assign a number and say today sentiment is plus 3 so this currency should be plus 1? you can not ...so out of the blue...for no reason...we drop...or we rally....except intel earnings.... of course I am not questioning the market ...like LEITHTEC said in his post...I am here to listen to the market and do what it tells me to do.

remember our posts regarding CAD/JPY...suddenly it dropped with the rest of the jpy pairs and now it is up 50% of that drop (30% of the move is today alone) last time it touched 84.30 it turned down and never looked back, today, it took 84.30 all the way to 84.99

So instead of taking a chance on it, I am waiting to hit the 89 wall and I will short there ....but where do you think the top for it now? 86.20? that is the last resistance before the 89.15 top from last run up.

John Kicklighter · #**3062** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

as for the time frame, of course, you trade it according to your time frame, but the commodity currencies...move with sentiment...how you measure that ? how you assign a number and say today sentiment is plus 3 so this currency should be plus 1? you can not ...so out of the blue...for no reason...we drop...or we rally....except intel earnings.... of course I am not questioning the market ...like LEITHTEC said in his post...I am here to listen to the market and do what it tells me to do.

remember our posts regarding CAD/JPY...suddenly it dropped with the rest of the jpy pairs and now it is up 50% of that drop (30% of the move is today alone) last time it touched 84.30 it turned down and never looked back, today, it took 84.30 all the way to 84.99

So instead of taking a chance on it, I am waiting to hit the 89 wall and I will short there ....but where do you think the top for it now? 86.20? that is the last resistance before the 89.15 top from last run up.

That is true. It is impossible to accurately qualify what will have an impact on the market and then determine how to quantify its influence (fundamentally and technically). However, you can tell generally what is influencing the market and what level of impact it has. Like the rally in yen crosses, equities, fixed income over the last three days would suggest it is general investment flows on expectations of higher returns (or rising risk appetite). You can't tell this with 100% accuracy of course, but the evidence is there.

This is a good argument for trading with trends. The market trends (whether it be up, down or sideways) most of the time. Since we can't mark the beginning or ending of a driver very well, you just recognize it and jump in. Otherwise, you are looking at the breakout and reversals that require an immediate recognition. Of course, there are more nuances to this. If it is just technicals levels or zones we are responding to, it is more passive. I'm just treating this in generalities.

As for CADJPY, I'm amazed by this volatility. Another trend channel is taken out. I'm looking at a short-term Fib at 85 as immediate resistance; but 86 and 89.25 have more influence. You can see why in the chart below.

raulin · #**3063** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Dear Raulin ... I use the "TIME" principle for all of my Daily projections ... I'm surprised that You didn't see this One coming as Your Ichimoku Chart (Senkou span) is showing clearly that this drop is probable. I've never been able to account for holding both a Technical perspective along with Fundamental information at the same Time ... it's One or the other for me ... perhaps this is the issue for Your uncertainty ... holding two views. A Cloud extension is the difference between Today's 10 Day MA and Today's lowest or highest price ... depending on whether the Market is above or below the current 10 Day MA ... for example the top Cloud maxed out at 339 pips above that Day's 10 Day Ma on June 22nd with a High of 1.1558 ... from there the Cloud (this Daily difference) began to drop ... even though the Market kept climbing Higher ... the first dip below "0" with that Day's Low came on July 7th ... yet still closing above the previous Day ... it took 3 Day's for this Market to finally Break to the downside. As of this writing ... this USD/CAD Pair has touched 274 pips below Today's 10 Day MA at 1.1304 ... so we are nearing (mirroring) the original 339 pip extension that occurred on June 22nd. Other mathematical factors are always observed and considered as well but I won't get into that right Now ... currently the William's %R on the Daily is showing that once this Market gets back above yesterday's Low of 1.1326 then a "Buy" Signal will be generated ... but "Time" (which must ALWAYS remain thee most important Factor) does not come to full term for this latest Swing until Monday July 20th ... and still ... in order to confirm yesterday's Close ... I still have to wait for Today to play out ... so I'll just scalp a Lower Timeframe with MacD over the 4H leaning until Monday arrives ... as this drop has been very kind to me and there is no sense in losing what I've gained this Week. If You're interested in How I calculate the "Time" element for this Pair ... that will be another Day.

It seems like you are using regression to the mean like I do with Andrew's pitchfork-really powerful tool which can predict future price direction.

andruha · #**3064** (**permalink**) 07-15-2009, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't think this has anything to do specifically with the US. I certainly do not think it is related to speculation over their stimulus plan or guarantees.

If you take a look at the yen crosses, they are also showing a hard rally against the safe haven currency. What's more, equities and commodities are up strongly over the past few days. This means we are seeing a general risk is risk appetite (and the dollar is on the opposite side of that bill). I don't like to assign any specific 'reason' to shifts in sentiment; but earnings so far has been a reason for optimism among investors.

You know, I think it has everything to do with it.

Nonetheless, $/CAD dropped even after I pulled the plug on her with hundreds of pips. I am inclined to think it can come a little further with this as other people take a look at their longs and start making decisions. I'm thinking anytime in the next 5 business days should see me back in there.

This risk appetite argument btw sounds a lot like nothing that makes sense to me. What I see is a clear topping side sweep followed by a very small head fake right at the 38.2% fib retracement and then collapse. I see folks waiting and waiting and then all the sudden not seeing anymore progress and just dropping positions. To me risk is when you buy the dollar bubble but risk aversion is when you exit the bubble. Today was actually the risk aversion day as far as I am concerned. Gold went up.

adam6655nyc · #**3065** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andruha

You know, I think it has everything to do with it.

Nonetheless, $/CAD dropped even after I pulled the plug on her with hundreds of pips. I am inclined to think it can come a little further with this as other people take a look at their longs and start making decisions. I'm thinking anytime in the next 5 business days should see me back in there.

This risk appetite argument btw sounds a lot like nothing that makes sense to me. What I see is a clear topping side sweep followed by a very small head fake right at the 38.2% fib retracement and then collapse. I see folks waiting and waiting and then all the sudden not seeing anymore progress and just dropping positions. To me risk is when you buy the dollar bubble but risk aversion is when you exit the bubble. Today was actually the risk aversion day as far as I am concerned. Gold went up.

dollar bubble? what about EURO bubble? GBP bubble?
The whole market is a bubble....I do not understand why everyone is excited, financials never used to guage the health of the economy, it is a tool (using their reports on lending and credit cards) to measure or guage the health of consumer not to guage how good the economy is...so GS made money trading but legally it is a holding bank?? (big question mark...because if you treat it as a bank...let us look at the reserve ratio....etc

They made the bulk of their earnings from trading....thaat is not banking lol
but how that help me as a market observer to guage the recovery? I can trade and make a lot of money to my account but it does not make me an expert in economy or money issues....Intel on the other hand is a guage for big corp and the earnings were good so that is a sign that I can not deny
but we will be waiting for goog, orcl, msft ...those are the companies that will give a real picture of what is going on and because they have been reporting for years and years...they tell it as it is ...they will forcast what they see

I will be listening for msft and orcl ER more than GS and MS (with no competition in the market to challenge them...of course they were going to make a killing trading)
So do not write the dollar out....risk still exists...two or three earnings reports not indicative of how the rest of economy is doing.

just like in 2007 when shippers were up 150% in three months, or the solar companies up 300% (where most of them now talking about going out of business lol ) markets get ahead of itself and it comes back...the key is to stay calm, keep your cash safe till the market comes sane again....

John Kicklighter · #**3066** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

dollar bubble? what about EURO bubble? GBP bubble?
The whole market is a bubble....I do not understand why everyone is excited, financials never used to guage the health of the economy, it is a tool (using their reports on lending and credit cards) to measure or guage the health of consumer not to guage how good the economy is...so GS made money trading but legally it is a holding bank?? (big question mark...because if you treat it as a bank...let us look at the reserve ratio....etc

They made the bulk of their earnings from trading....thaat is not banking lol
but how that help me as a market observer to guage the recovery? I can trade and make a lot of money to my account but it does not make me an expert in economy or money issues....Intel on the other hand is a guage for big corp and the earnings were good so that is a sign that I can not deny
but we will be waiting for goog, orcl, msft ...those are the companies that will give a real picture of what is going on and because they have been reporting for years and years...they tell it as it is ...they will forcast what they see

I will be listening for msft and orcl ER more than GS and MS (with no competition in the market to challenge them...of course they were going to make a killing trading)
So do not write the dollar out....risk still exists...two or three earnings reports not indicative of how the rest of economy is doing.

just like in 2007 when shippers were up 150% in three months, or the solar companies up 300% (where most of them now talking about going out of business lol ) markets get ahead of itself and it comes back...the key is to stay calm, keep your cash safe till the market comes sane again....

You are a skeptic like me.

I am particularly leery of GS's numbers. They take the big step of turning into a bank so that they can access government liquidity injections and all of the sudden I'm supposed to believe their business is booming when the economy is still in recession and credit is still pinched before it gets to the consumer/small business level. When you are player this large in the market, your method of trading is very different that what most of us are used to. They generate revenues from things we generally wouldn't consider a fair trade and they also have a monopoly on certain areas of the market. Their numbers should be combed through with a fine toothed comb and their practices should be scrutinized. I bet a considerable portion of their improvement can be attributed to tax payer money through fiscal stimulus is still struggling to create jobs. Perhaps it is naive to think it should work as intended; but I do think it is criminal that most tax payers don't understand that the intermediaries in the market and economy reap profit along the way.

I'm also watching the other earnings releases. I put a report about this together yesterday. I highlighted most of the Blue Chips and major banks that are going to release numbers the rest of this month. Accounting can be fudged (deferring liabilities and such) and an uptick in earnings is equivalent to a slower pace of recession for the broader economy (not something to really cheer about); but a consistent round of positive earnings can certainly boost speculation.

adam6655nyc · #**3067** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

You are a skeptic like me.

I am particularly leery of GS's numbers. They take the big step of turning into a bank so that they can access government liquidity injections and all of the sudden I'm supposed to believe their business is booming when the economy is still in recession and credit is still pinched before it gets to the consumer/small business level. When you are player this large in the market, your method of trading is very different that what most of us are used to. They generate revenues from things we generally wouldn't consider a fair trade and they also have a monopoly on certain areas of the market. Their numbers should be combed through with a fine toothed comb and their practices should be scrutinized. I bet a considerable portion of their improvement can be attributed to tax payer money through fiscal stimulus is still struggling to create jobs. Perhaps it is naive to think it should work as intended; but I do think it is criminal that most tax payers don't understand that the intermediaries in the market and economy reap profit along the way.

I'm also watching the other earnings releases. I put a report about this together yesterday. I highlighted most of the Blue Chips and major banks that are going to release numbers the rest of this month. Accounting can be fudged (deferring liabilities and such) and an uptick in earnings is equivalent to a slower pace of recession for the broader economy (not something to really cheer about); but a consistent round of positive earnings can certainly boost speculation.

A Rebound in Earnings Does Not Necessarily Mean a Rebound in Growth

good point and yes, it does not mean a rebound in growth

But that is ignored for now, as every report is treated as "not as bad as expected" or better than expected but both are sub/less than last year, so no growth

I can not wait to see the numbers from goog and orcl (goog is the big indication for AD and it is all tied to consumer in everything they do) and orcl is every big corp in the universe runs their database without them, the whole banking sector would not run...so it will show signs of rebound or not

the only thing that I DO NOT know how to measure is the rebound in CHINA and commodities currencies (I am long AUD/JPY and AUD/USD) and trying to see if the rebound in china is for real because that is the only reason the AUD will keep going....american companies doing business there should show more revenue from overseas but some reports will not break their numbers by location....

I am a firm believer that wealth is being created somewhere else but here
We need new blood, new breed of business people, new ideas...

leithtec · #**3068** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raulin

It seems like you are using regression to the mean like I do with Andrew's pitchfork-really powerful tool which can predict future price direction.

Right You are! ... as I mentioned in one of my Posts last Week ... this USD/CAD Pair has formed an Andrew's Pitchfork from these Dates ... March 9th (High) ... June 1st (Low) ... and July 8ty (High) ... before this current drop ... forming a perfect Andrew's Pitchfork ... in Time ... on the Daily. So let's take this to the next Level ... if this is indeed an Andrew's Pitchfork formation ... then the follow through Low should come in at the middle intersecting Line slightly above the previous June 1st Low of 1.0787 ... so don't be suckered in by a bounce back up to the 1.1325 to 1.1450 area ... should a bounce transpire ... "before" the follow-thru drop.

adam6655nyc · #**3069** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

You are a skeptic like me.

I am particularly leery of GS's numbers. They take the big step of turning into a bank so that they can access government liquidity injections and all of the sudden I'm supposed to believe their business is booming when the economy is still in recession and credit is still pinched before it gets to the consumer/small business level. When you are player this large in the market, your method of trading is very different that what most of us are used to. They generate revenues from things we generally wouldn't consider a fair trade and they also have a monopoly on certain areas of the market. Their numbers should be combed through with a fine toothed comb and their practices should be scrutinized. I bet a considerable portion of their improvement can be attributed to tax payer money through fiscal stimulus is still struggling to create jobs. Perhaps it is naive to think it should work as intended; but I do think it is criminal that most tax payers don't understand that the intermediaries in the market and economy reap profit along the way.

I'm also watching the other earnings releases. I put a report about this together yesterday. I highlighted most of the Blue Chips and major banks that are going to release numbers the rest of this month. Accounting can be fudged (deferring liabilities and such) and an uptick in earnings is equivalent to a slower pace of recession for the broader economy (not something to really cheer about); but a consistent round of positive earnings can certainly boost speculation.

I believe the IBM numbers put our discussion to rest, I guess the economy is recovering...on the other hand the goog numbers were aweful, so the consumer side (goog) is weak as we all know, but corp investment and services are in the right spot....so orcl will be the confirmation for the this equation...if IBM service the hardware and software...running the database should be on the same page with IBM numbers or we will have disparity ..only msft numbers on the server side would solve it

adam6655nyc · #**3070** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Right You are! ... as I mentioned in one of my Posts last Week ... this USD/CAD Pair has formed an Andrew's Pitchfork from these Dates ... March 9th (High) ... June 1st (Low) ... and July 8ty (High) ... before this current drop ... forming a perfect Andrew's Pitchfork ... in Time ... on the Daily. So let's take this to the next Level ... if this is indeed an Andrew's Pitchfork formation ... then the follow through Low should come in at the middle intersecting Line slightly above the previous June 1st Low of 1.0787 ... so don't be suckered in by a bounce back up to the 1.1325 to 1.1450 area ... should a bounce transpire ... "before" the follow-thru drop.

OMG, you speak like the rest of us lol
you never say your opinion as clear as this, you usually say something vague like "may be you should look at the chart and it will tell you"

but this time you said what is on your mind, thank you for that lol

al7291 · #**3071** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Right You are! ... as I mentioned in one of my Posts last Week ... this USD/CAD Pair has formed an Andrew's Pitchfork from these Dates ... March 9th (High) ... June 1st (Low) ... and July 8ty (High) ... before this current drop ... forming a perfect Andrew's Pitchfork ... in Time ... on the Daily. So let's take this to the next Level ... if this is indeed an Andrew's Pitchfork formation ... then the follow through Low should come in at the middle intersecting Line slightly above the previous June 1st Low of 1.0787 ... so don't be suckered in by a bounce back up to the 1.1325 to 1.1450 area ... should a bounce transpire ... "before" the follow-thru drop.

...I don't really see the AP forming there... May I ask at what point your median starts? March 9th? It's not really a median...

andruha · #**3072** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

dollar bubble? what about EURO bubble? GBP bubble?
The whole market is a bubble....

Yeah, right. Well, EUR appears to be much less of a bubble. Trichet maintains his stance on prudent money. Basically, dollar and gbp bubble is a result of money printing that is temporarily held at the banks. I fear the day when the dam finally bursts. I think that since $ is the only reserve currency everyone will be affected with big problems of plenty money vs scarcity of products. Anyway, i'm a big skeptic so I could be over the top in some of my judgements. One thing seems for sure, this $/CAD drop is not done and if this assumption holds true than all other fears will take on a whole different dimension.

I often wonder why we only have only one reserve currency. it would be so nice to have many so that I could move elsewhere and live good life while this storm is ongoing in america. read news about it.

andruha · #**3073** (**permalink**) 07-16-2009, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by leithtec

Right You are! ... as I mentioned in one of my Posts last Week ... this USD/CAD Pair has formed an Andrew's Pitchfork from these Dates ... March 9th (High) ... June 1st (Low) ... and July 8ty (High) ... before this current drop ... forming a perfect Andrew's Pitchfork ... in Time ... on the Daily. So let's take this to the next Level ... if this is indeed an Andrew's Pitchfork formation ... then the follow through Low should come in at the middle intersecting Line slightly above the previous June 1st Low of 1.0787 ... so don't be suckered in by a bounce back up to the 1.1325 to 1.1450 area ... should a bounce transpire ... "before" the follow-thru drop.

Overall I agree with your idea but I think 1.1325 is a little optimistic given severity of the previous drop. I'm going to short at the 1.1250sh mark and then see what happens.

SkiBunny · #**3074** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 03:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adam6655nyc

I believe the IBM numbers put our discussion to rest, I guess the economy is recovering...on the other hand the goog numbers were aweful

IBM is huge in Asia as it's been here since the beginning. Intel also got a big boost from its Asian business. Google is a failure in Asia and most of the others are also-rans here.

SkiBunny · #**3075** (**permalink**) 07-17-2009, 03:18 AM

I'm not impressed with the headline earnings numbers. For example, although IBM's earnings are strong, sales are down 13% from a year ago. We're not going to slash & burn our way to prosperity.

After the initial earnings giddiness subsides, I think we may refocus on the weakness of overall global demand, and risk appetite will wane again. Commodities will resume their downward path (oil will probably see $50 before it sees $70 again) and the safe haven currencies could experience some strength.