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07-28-2009, 09:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
RBA Governor today hinted at a rate hike.
And as I read and reported a few days ago (above), the BOC is reportedly going to backtrack and do the same.
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I am very skeptical of the BoC moving early. I could see perhaps the first or early second quarter of next year as it would give time for economic conditions and inflation to develop and warrant such an action.
However, anything earlier than that would be highly speculative and manipulative on their part. They don't like to encourage volatility (which a surprise rate hike would certainly bring after they have made the effort to project no moves until June of next year). Also, the economic factors just aren't their. They are still struggling to secure positive growth and certainly coming up short on various sectors. Finally, they have stated their concern that a rising C$ is killing growth. Hiking rates would force the currency to appreciate further and make it that much more impossible for them to deal with a factor that is stifling expansion.
Just my opinion on the matter.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-28-2009, 10:33 AM
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Hey I found this gap on the Loonie up high, hope it helps, and means something, just beware of dips
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07-28-2009, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
I am very skeptical of the BoC moving early. I could see perhaps the first or early second quarter of next year as it would give time for economic conditions and inflation to develop and warrant such an action.
However, anything earlier than that would be highly speculative and manipulative on their part. They don't like to encourage volatility (which a surprise rate hike would certainly bring after they have made the effort to project no moves until June of next year). Also, the economic factors just aren't their. They are still struggling to secure positive growth and certainly coming up short on various sectors. Finally, they have stated their concern that a rising C$ is killing growth.
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Yes but BOC already began backtracking 3 days ago by stating that they don't see the rise in the C$ as a road block to growth anymore.
Central bank report helps push C$ to recent high
A surprise hint from the RBA governor Tuesday that it may hike rates seemed to have also taken the C$ down to 1.0749 earlier today. Whether that will be its high for this year remains to be seen.
Last edited by SkiBunny; 07-28-2009 at 12:19 PM..
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07-28-2009, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
Yes but BOC already began backtracking 3 days ago by stating that they don't see the rise in the C$ as a road block to growth anymore.
Central bank report helps push C$ to recent high
A surprise hint from the RBA governor Tuesday that it may hike rates seemed to have also taken the C$ down to 1.0749 earlier today. Whether that will be its high for this year remains to be seen. |
I would agree with Buchanan that the language has eased on that front; but I wouldn't say it has gotten to the point where it is no longer a factor holding back growth.
The BoC still says in the statement that accompanied its rate decision last week: "However, the higher Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth."
Also,the BoC is historically a cautious group (they are no MPC) that is patient enough to wait for confirmation from economic data in making policy adjustments. It would be very surprising to see them hike this year.
If they did cut in September, October, December, it would say a lot about growth, market stability and fiscal/monetary policy which I think could push us down to 1.0290 or 0.9740 quickly (depending on where we started off from).
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-28-2009, 09:17 PM
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2 year junks didn't score the high scores today with indirect bidders being under 35%. I'm thinking this is what has kept the lid on a correctional move back up. 5 year and 7 year coming up.
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07-29-2009, 03:49 PM
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Canada finanice minisiter back tracking
BOC said some things but didn't put it into perspective.
Wow!! A little bit of growth after such a huge correction.
This calls for the end of a recession. What??
Then a few days later jobless rates are through the roof and no end in sight?
Here is a link.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty cautioned
Too early to say recession over: Flaherty
US housing shows signs of recovery.
That is the real story!! |
07-29-2009, 10:34 PM
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Another successful trade
I just wanted to share with all of you about my trade today:
Entry: 1.0825
Target: 1.09225
Stop: 1.0625
my target hit today and am very happy!!!!
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07-30-2009, 03:24 AM
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Posts: 3
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Spidereweb, congratulations and good call.
What did you base your trade on?
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07-30-2009, 09:49 AM
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Bank of Canda will Intervention
at what level the Bank of Canda will Interven to but break on the looni advance, the same way the swiss bank do at 1.5 level against the Euro ?
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07-30-2009, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spidereweb
I just wanted to share with all of you about my trade today:
Entry: 1.0825
Target: 1.09225
Stop: 1.0625
my target hit today and am very happy!!!!
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Would be great if you would post an annotated chart showing your entry and exit criteria...
Thanks for sharing.
dave |
07-30-2009, 11:54 AM
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USD "Strength" vs Cad Today
USD seems to be relatively resilient vs CAD today considering that the DOW is up 150, S&P is up 17, oil is up 3.15. Canada’s industrial product prices and raw material prices were also stronger.
On the 15 minute chart, you can see the pair testing 1.0810 more than a few times only to bounce.
I'm really itching to get back in long this pair but a little gun shy after my losses from the previous 2 weeks.
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07-30-2009, 12:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jakesteel1
Spidereweb, congratulations and good call.
What did you base your trade on?
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Well I looked at the recommendation from FXCM and also that OIL at near $70 at the time of my trade. Also Dow 30 was oversold. |
07-30-2009, 12:47 PM
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Long USD/CAD
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakesteel1
USD seems to be relatively resilient vs CAD today considering that the DOW is up 150, S&P is up 17, oil is up 3.15. Canada’s industrial product prices and raw material prices were also stronger.
On the 15 minute chart, you can see the pair testing 1.0810 more than a few times only to bounce.
I'm really itching to get back in long this pair but a little gun shy after my losses from the previous 2 weeks.
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I entered long now target 1.10, the path of less resistanse is to the upside |
07-30-2009, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by insider26
at what level the Bank of Canda will Interven to but break on the looni advance, the same way the swiss bank do at 1.5 level against the Euro ?
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What tangible indication has there been from BOC that it will intervene anytime in the forseeable future? Sounds like wishful thinking.
The CAD will not weaken until all of the following happen... global markets correct, oil prices correct, and risk appetite wanes.
Alternatively, the CAD will weaken if sentiment improves on the USD and USD strengthens across the board. There were signs that might occur as USD is oversold, but it's unhelpful that now Congress looks like it might come up with a big tax-and-spend healthcare bill after all. The world is growing weary of the US overspending and even beg-borrowing. I think that recent "reassurance" (read pleading) on the part of some top US brass in China looked weak, particularly from the perspective of Asian culture. |
07-30-2009, 02:50 PM
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Poor loonie. Now even an improving U.S. economy is bad news for the CAD?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
...Alternatively, the CAD will weaken if sentiment improves on the USD and USD strengthens across the board...
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Just a moment here. I thought that if the sentiment on the USD improves that's because the U.S. economy improves. Isn't that good news for Canada? More trade that way.
You (and similarly attuned) have no problem with crediting both statements to hold true: Bad US economy is bad for the loonie and good US economy is also bad for the loonie.
Shouldn't you make up your mind which one? Tell me please what am I missing in that logic.
Last edited by herrvonsteiner; 07-30-2009 at 02:52 PM..
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