RECENTLY I HAVE HEARD A LOT ON JIM ROGERS. JIM IS EXTREMELY BULLISH ON PRECIOUS METALS, COMMODITIES, ENERGY AND EXTREMELY BEARISH OR SHORT ON THE USD.
JIM ALSO RESIDES IN SINGAPORE.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN JIM HAS LEFT THE COUNTRY.

JUST SOME INFO ON JIM

REGARDS

I am wondering if any people here who consider themselves knowledgeable traders can offer me a word of advice: I am currently holding a large amount of US dollars and need to convert a portion in the next 48 hours.

2 questions.

1. I am hearing US employment reports today, unemployment is at a 26 (?) year high. Should I trade now (as in, this morning), or B) wait until the end of the day / later this afternoon?

In general, I am asking, does high unemployment drive the USD up or down? I am thinking UP but would like some advice. I will be trading anywhere from 5k - 15k USD today

2. should I trade a "bare minimum" today to cover my business bills/credit cards and 'go long' and hold on to my US dollars; ie: do you think the USD:CAD will be good for USD sellers over the next 3-6 months, or should I convert everything now? (I have about 60k usd in total, and I live in Canada..)

I understand this is not an exact science but any thoughts, predictions and/or crystal ball gazing in regards to the above questions would be much appreciated.

Perhaps opinions would be appreciated, but frankly they would be of little help in your situation. We are speculating on the future move of the market, which means there is every chance of our opinion being wrong. I would think that you should be looking for the best execution rather than trying to time the exchange. I thought that you were looking for the rate to hit 1.10 to make the exchange and the market did move up there right after your original posts in August. With the advantage of hindsight, that most likely would have been your best move. But there are never any guarantees about what will happen in the future. I would also guess that the difference between the exchange rate now and the end of the day will not have that much of an influence on your exchange as much as where you intend to do the actual exchange. These are really two different games.

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What You are asking are questions that Top CTA's get paid for. One way to look at it is like this ... the Media would have us believe that Gold is going to the moon and that the the USD/CAD is going to par again into 2010. As for Your transaction Today ... as long as Today Closes above yesterday's Close ... which it appears will be the case (will move this Pair away from Par) make the Trade around noon EST. As for the Future ... from a purely Technical standpoint ... both the Weekly and the Monthly are indicating that a Bottom is in and that the USD may begin a Slow ascent into the beginning of 2010 ... which goes against the Media' bias. One way to determine if this is true or not is to keep an eye on this USD/CAD Pair after mid November to see if it is remaining above 1.0597 ... and if this Pair gets above 1.0872 this Month ... then Higher prices may come easier afterwards. Hope this helps.

Now that the the near-term upside Price area of 1.0734 has been breached this morning ... sideways action should play out with an attempt at Closing above yesterday's High of 1.0684 ... just where this One Closes Today will reveal more ... as we know form experience that the Bears do not give up easily.

oil has been rejected for the third week by the 38.2% fib of entire drop from 1.4700 0.36 and is finishing the week as it started. usd/cad appears to have finished the correction at 1.0600 level. usd/strength is back and will continue next week. for me stop on usd/cad is 1.0590 trgets above 1.0900 up to 1.1050! next week.
regards

Rather than guess the market direction or trading in dribs and drabs, you might do better by switching everything at once to minimize the spread you pay when you exchange. At Canadian banks, I believe that anything below 25K is considered to be a small retail exchange, subject to the retail spread of at least 300 basis points. By exchanging 50K you get a much better rate, typically close to 100 bp's. The spread should be very narrow with a 6 or 7-figure amount being exchanged, in which case your branch can/should negotiate on your behalf with the bank's currency trading desk.

He walks the talk. He has taken his family with him too. He is ensuring his kids become fully fluent in chinese. He is a "bull in china".

This USD/CAD Pair completed a Swing Cycle to the upside with Monday's (Nov 2nd) High of 1.0872 ... Wed (Nov 4th) Low of 1.0597 may have opened a trap-door to the downside with a potential re-action Swing to follow to the downside this Week ... therefore ... aggressive Buying will not come into play until this Pair gets back above Tues (Nov 3rd) High of 1.0856 ... just how aggressive the Buying becomes ... should this Market get back below 1.0597 remains to be seen ... leaving sideways action to fulfill Time between these two Price Points. Lower to sideways Action for Monday Nov 9th would not be unreasonable.

I wasn't expecting this USD/CAD Pair to drop as quickly as it did prior to the US Open this morning ... wiping out Friday's gains ... leaving itself in a position which may not be able to Close above the prior Friday's (Oct 30th) Low of 1.0656 ... which may very well determine direction for the remainder of this Month. Are the Bears continuing to hold the Dominant Trend?

After a near 200 pip drop this morning ... significant Buying must come in below Wed. Low of 1.0597 in order to get this Market back above 1.0656 in order for the upward Trend to regain a toehold. Just how near to today's Low this USD/CAD Pair Closes today will be the determining factor. Historically ... if You go back to any of the dates where drops of app. 200 pips played out (after completion of a Swing Cycle to the upside) with a Close near the Low on the Daily ... what transpired on the two days following?

MACD and stochastics show more decline.

As of 9:00pm EST, looks like the USD/CAD is hitting the 50% Fib level on 60 min chart, with bullish divergence on the ROC and MACD (on 15 min chart), this is giving a small play for a long on the night session, would like to see what this looks like in the morning. This could be a buy up to 38% FIB or even as far as 1.07-1.0715 level. But if breaks 1.0775 this is bullish sign for a another test to a breakout for previous high level (1.0850ish level). Truthfully, i think it will just be another sell oportunitity if get back to the 38% fib (1.0615ish level) or even the 1.07-1.0715ish level.

If we are in the mindset of continually viewing this USD/CAD Pair in terms of the next two Price targets ... one above and one below the current price ... are we able to accurately forecast what will happen when either of these Price targets gets touched? For example ... this Pair has made a Low yesterday of 1.0545 ... while the Pivot Point (given yesterday's High/Low/Close) has come down to 1.0616 ... simple enough ... which one of these two Prices will get touched first? and what will happen in each case? So ... the continual question in each and every situation is ... "what is the path of least resistance"? ... and Now (again) what is the path of least resistance ... and Now ... and on and on.

Pivot point shows where the buyers and sellers were equal in the market during the past 24 hrs, more a neutral point if you will

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