USD/CAD - Page 3

rmac · #31 (**permalink**) 06-23-2005, 08:01 PM

Hi Mouse

Your entry level is what I have been using for my long positions and closed out yesterday at 1.2374.
Opened A short at 1.2341 one hour agoat 1704pm pstwith A very tight stop and limit at 122.87.
I still do not feel good at shorting big blue at this time.
MAC

Inna86 · #32 (**permalink**) 06-24-2005, 07:53 AM

Yeah vishal I did get stopped out.. The contradictions in regards to the fundementals and technicals make me feel that i should stick around and see what happens before i place any more trades. I think 1.200 might be a significant support line, so we'll see what happens.
for now i'll just lick my wounds about my loss of $

ims83 · #33 (**permalink**) 06-24-2005, 09:49 AM

Once the MACD signal crossed below the signal on the 1 hr 5 day chart yesterday, I closed my long position. The MACD cross and the high oil prices were good reasons for me to close my long positions. Today based on the MACD, and some fundamental news (oil prices, etc.) I shorted the USD/CAD position.

profx10 · #34 (**permalink**) 06-24-2005, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by vishal ----
The CAD seems to keep cornering itself into an ever tighter range. At the beginning of the week, it was using 1.2365 (a now significant resistance) as a ceiling, but as of the last two days, it has failed to retrace and close above 1.2350, the 50 fib from the August-December rally. Much like John (Mighty Mouse), I'm contributing this uncharacteristic behavior of the CAD not to its ineptness at buoying itself upon rising oil prices, but rather to the strong foothold the dollar bulls have in the market. As long as the Euro continues to test long-term support, the USDCAD pair will be kept afloat by positive U.S. sentiment (as EURUSD and USDCAD have a stronger negative correlation with increasing time periods). A break either way is going to result in a big move. Though the FOMC meeting should cause the USD/CAD to rally sharply, and possibly even test the 1.2400 barrier, it seems that though July will probably see a sell-off in the pair. I'm putting in a buy order at 1.2415, and a sell-order at 1.2280, but will be watching this pair closely as a candle close below the triangle could trigger a massive bearish move. Any inputs?

US dollar has no reason to rise against the CAD. US has been strong against other crosses, and when it breaks down against the others the Canadian dollar will increase.....

A US rally against the CAD??? why do you think that? (just wondering)

rmac · #35 (**permalink**) 06-25-2005, 08:49 PM

Hi Guys
These comments are excellent as of right now I have no positions. Plotting A set up to enter, and the one I am working calls for bullish on breakout of 1.2380 and Bearish 1.2275.
I do use Fibo # on all my caculations and set ups.
Mac

ims83 · #36 (**permalink**) 06-27-2005, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by vishal ----
I was sharing near and short term outlook. Obviously you're correct about what'll happen a while from now (perhaps two weeks time?). The technicals are also pointing to the downfall of the USD, but far sooner than when the fundamentals, creating a bit of a discrepancy. If the following week was void of US data, I'd agree with you. But I feel as though today's Euro action, and the CAD's resiliency to the critical support it's attempting to breach, are all results of dollar bulls covering their positions, and that will probably continue up until the 29th, unless we see a dramatic swing in oil prices. When the 25bp hike comes in next week, though it's already "priced" into the market, the now "artifical" level of the Euro consolidation range and the USD/CAD tightening wedge will see a spike on the opposite side of the logically "technical" barrier. For the EURUSD, since it already breached the 1.2000 mark, the inception of a southward trend and a full frontal attack at 2000 will become more likely, whereas for the CAD, the pair may break short term resistance and test the upper boundary of the triangle before eventually beginning its downward move. Basically, through the FOMC meeting, expect dollar bullishness. Afterwards, expect oil to finally help push USD/CAD lower.

i agree. The fundamentals point to shorting the dollar, especially based on oil prices. However, it is not as clear with the technicals. On the daily 6 month chart, The MACD, corssing underneath the signal line, is clearly noting a downtrend. I am not sure about the RSI. At the moment it is flat, and I am not sure which direction it will go. I think that there will be a short term upwards movement, but long term trend will be downwards.

Mighty Mouse · #37 (**permalink**) 06-27-2005, 07:21 PM

The pair has been stuck in this 100-pip range for past 7 sessions. This is very interesting and oddly hasn't had any affect on bollinger bands in any major time frames. The CAD has all its economic data coming out on Thursday (GDP, producer prices, and raw material prices) which are all looking good for the CAD. On the otherhand, USD is mixed across the board and there is some potential with consumer confidence and GDP to really move the market.

I expect the 30th to be the deciding day for this range - if it doesn't happen earlier. Good stuff on both sides. Expect it to explode one way and I'm betting it's up.

5755hsa · #38 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 12:31 AM

I expect the 30th to be the deciding day for this range - if it doesn't happen earlier. Good stuff on both sides. Expect it to explode one way and I'm betting it's up.

Hey guys. I would agree with your comments in whole and add this. I see a short term uptrend with the possibility of the break of the 61.8 support (Mar-May rally), that comes in right around 1.2260. If it can get by this really nothing stopping it to go to .2200. Of course this would need to happen in my opinion before Thursdays' news. I don't trust or try to predict fundamentals we all know the direction can go either way no matter what the news is. Happy trading and best of luck to all.
5755hsa......................

ims83 · #39 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 08:33 AM

The fundamentals do point to shorting the USD/CAD. Also, technicals on the the long term chart also point to shorting the USD. The MACD signals a weaker dollar as well as the EMA. However, how much higher can oil prices get? It seems as if they are going to reach a peak and then start to fall. If this happens will it bring more stregnth to the dollar?

currency07 · #40 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 01:50 PM

I do not think that the price of oil will get higher.

forexguru14 · #41 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by currency07
I do not think that the price of oil will get higher.

why not ? ....................the discrepancy between the supply and demand is so large that there will be no sign of equilibrium in the near future....This can be partially blamed for the excess demand on the parts of India and China..................May i ask what urged you to type that comment

forexguru14 · #42 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 02:10 PM

why not ? ....................the discrepancy between the supply and demand is so large that there will be no sign of equilibrium in the near future....This can be partially blamed for the excess demand on the parts of India and China..................May i ask what urged you to type that comment

forexguru14 · #43 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 02:11 PM

ims83 · #44 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 04:26 PM

Hey guru, take note that the price of oil dropped 4% today after hitting an all time high yesterday... what do you think about that???

kuanysh · #45 (**permalink**) 06-28-2005, 05:00 PM

well, it was pretty clear in the reports - russia promised its oil to the US, and Kuwait suggested increasing the supply further. HOWEVER, the demand is there for good, at any supply level, and i believe the oil prices are going up further in the long term. as for today's retracement - well, that happens everywhere across the board. besides, these types of comments will influence the market. oil bulls are just taking a long-needed break. and russians are still better off selling oil to EZ.

-me