Yes oil is a hot topic, but even after prices eased over $2, the loonie still stood still in its range. The market must really be gearing up for the FOMC and Cad GDP for the end of this week. Dodge gave his broken record of raising rates in the future during his finger wagging speech today, but I think a hike has its best chance that it has seen in some time and the BoC should really consider it unless they want to see even more investor dollars flood the U.S. after they boost rates again on Friday.

Concerning oil, I think I have lost faith in its volatile moves. I think we have reached the point were oil prices are hurting Canadian manufacturers as much as they are profiting from their export of crude. While Canada is a net exporter of oil, it isn't anywhere near the level of other contributors.

I'm going to shift my attention away from commodity prices for a little and focus on the upcoming releases. I still hold that the dollar will overpower the loonie as the market really focuses on its strength against the other majors and will undoubtedly carry it over to the USDCAD pair. What does everyone else think?

Hi Mouse
Have to agree with you comments I have no positions at present
but looking to go long this week at 1.2255 then short at 1.2386.
This pair is due for a move and later this week it will happen.
I am bullish .
mac

Mouse, you might be right about the USDCAD direction after the releases, but the puzzling USD weakness today might be an indication of the oil prices coming into play.

-me

Today's movement was exciting to say the least. Finally saw some life in the pair with the two month lows. I don't know about it having to do with oil though, unless it oil has made a negative correlation with the loonie. Oil prices fell today which should have weighed on the loonie, but on the other hand, the positive U.S. data shouldn't have produced a jump in the CAD. I think today's surge was speculators getting caught with their pants down and covering open positions.

Whatever the fundamentals may be, it has broken a short support line from March 30 to June 28 and is now on the larger trendline with a 50% fibo level as support. If the U.S. data is strong I'm putting on an order to go long 1.2360 and stay in only until I hit the falling trend and a short order at 1.2230 with profit around 1.2100.

I don't know where it's going but I'm getting anxious.

Here is a picture to support my crazy technical ideas. I swear I usually try to keep my charts simple but sometimes I feel like Russel Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind" and I think I see patterns.

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Hi Guys

Holiday this weekend USD/CAD markets. I am looking to go short at 1.2305 to take A position to crack the 1.2230 level
presently at 1.2249. Time17-05pst
Mac

I had a similar idea....shorted when it hit 1.2350....Unfortunately, this pair went crazy and just hit my stop at 1.2420...ouch.

shorted some more hoping it will retrace...hopefully thats not a mistake.

The dollar finally rallied through half of the wedge it was making. It feels kind of underhanded with little liquidity on the Canadian side with the markets closed due to the holiday. I hope you guys got in. Where are the longs looking to take profit.

Hi Mouse
Intresting day got out of my short early today with no damage done as it turned north this morning. took A long position 1.2380 and it seems I am going to use this for further set up to appear.
Intresting there was no major selloff with The U.S holiday weekend.
I am looking for A Fibo retraction to form base for next leg and Monday should make it intresting.
Mac

It looks as if the daily bar is starting to loose its northward momentum. A long upper wick seems to point to some easing in prices, although the BoC Business confidence survey will undoubedly have some pull at 14:30 GMT.

Technically there is a falling trend line from May 26 - Jun. 4 offering support, but there is a flipping support/resistance level at 1.2420 - so it will have to pick a direction eventually.

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Mr. Mouse that is Mighty, I think that your point is valid, and it has a lot to do with the fact that you're using Esignal. In any case, that is a rather clear decending wedge. There's a potential for pretty good profit and relatively little risk to short it right now and leave a tight stop loss. That's a proven resistance channel above, and the pair should retrace 100-150 pips before it hits its 7 month lower trendline.

You'd be bucking the longer term trend, but hey, why not?

Yeah, the market completely ignored the 1.2420 level and it seems as if the remaining channel and longer term wedge are the remaining valid setups. I think you are right Dominican about setting a short sale for this week. With the levels were they are at, you have a really good stop at around 1.25 and a good play down to about 1.2300, for a good risk/reward play. But be careful about the consolidation for those two weeks. That could offer some trouble or it could be completely ignored (we'll have to wait and see).

I think this pair won't get down to profit though until the end of the week. U.S. news is pretty light and Canada is empty until thursday. Thursday could be potentially good for the CAD with permits and the Ivey index coming out and no concurrent news with the US. Friday could be a different story though. CAD will release unemployment data, but the US unemployment data (along with sales and credit) could turn the pair in the dollars favor and finally break the pair above the three year trend line. With US non-farms so bad as they were last time, any rise could encourage a boost in the greenback. You should probably keep your eye on your stop on Friday and play it more aggressively if needed (maybe even going long if the trend breaks).

.... one thing to keep in mind is the bank rate differental. With .75 points, the BOC should act as Canada does not want to lose investment $. However with high oil this is offsetting the outflow of dollars and the BOC may not act. If the overnight rate is increased .25 points then the Lonnie will test 1.17 if not, dont execpt anything to happen. Right now the Lonnie is golden to all currencies.


Target 1.15 - 1.25 (years end) (depends on the reaction @1.17

max top 1.3123
max bottom 1.0944

Yesterday the price of oil futures reached a historical high and is up 41% for the year. I would love to trade based on this news but feel as if it's too late. If I were to short a pair like the USD/CAD with news, how would I go about trading with the news. Is there a certain source of news I should follow involving oil? (for future reference)

I agree with you on that one cmutdhastira. With the historical high for oil being all over the news since yesterday's close, it's far too late to trade based on that because it is now just common knowledge. The most profitable way to trade based on oil is probably to speculate on where prices are headed and anticipate the effects on a currency pair, that way you can enter the position at a more opportune time.