|
|
 |
|
11-16-2007, 01:52 AM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 399
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt683
I've mapped out USD.CAD from 2002 and it looks like we're now in the 5th wave. We're completing the correction from a 3 to 4 wave that started in early September. The current strength in the USD today against CAD is the C wave and it hit the target of 50% Fibonacci today. I suppose it could go as high as 1.02 though for the 61.8% Fib. I think there should be one more wave down in the series which will take place over the next month or two to complete the full 5 waves from 2002 before we begin the major retracement. The ultimate corrective wave from that could take us to about 1.12 at least as the 38.2% Fib.
This last move should be very quick. The target in the next month or two should be about 0.84. I believe that this will coincide with oil touching new highs as it is due for one more lurch upwards towards $108 to complete its final wave before a major corrective wave.
Anyone else here have similar findings/thoughts? I'm fairly new to EW analysis so trying to gauge how far off the mark I might be.
|
Kurt thanks for you analysis - fascinating if it plays out that way and $108/bbl oil btw could really sink the dollar bull thesis. I think return to parity is quite likely and then a slow churn as we try to figure out where we go next.
|
11-16-2007, 09:26 AM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,805
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
Cad is selling off again today and the timid rise in the $ is helping usher USDCAD through resistance. I was looking at 0.9825 as resistance and that has clearly fallen in the past two hours.
There is a clear rising trendline in the 15-minute chart pulling up the bottom in USDCAD, but that isn't likely to last long as this pair doesn't like to trend for too long. I'm long at 0.9835. Set my stop 0.9770, looking for parity but target at 0.9960. I'll trail my stop up the trendline until it goes to intraday range mode.
Anyone else in this pair for the upside?
|
That's nice. I got in nearly at the top of this upthrust. Oh well. Was stopped out for 65 points. I'm still hesistant to take a long-term position in this pair so that I can escape the intraday volatility to really jump on the evolving trend. The last two times I did that, I had gotten in long before 1.045 collapsed and before that I had sat on a position for three weeks and it went almost nowhere. This pair is too fickle for me to trade on the long term with any reasonable risk and time management mixture. I'll stick to the lower and medium time frames. Just looking for the next setup.
Anyone else in USDCAD now or sitting with open positions?
|
11-16-2007, 11:58 AM
|
|
Registered User
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
That's nice. I got in nearly at the top of this upthrust. Oh well. Was stopped out for 65 points. I'm still hesistant to take a long-term position in this pair so that I can escape the intraday volatility to really jump on the evolving trend. The last two times I did that, I had gotten in long before 1.045 collapsed and before that I had sat on a position for three weeks and it went almost nowhere. This pair is too fickle for me to trade on the long term with any reasonable risk and time management mixture. I'll stick to the lower and medium time frames. Just looking for the next setup.
Anyone else in USDCAD now or sitting with open positions?
|
Sitting SHORT on USDCAD, entered at .9822 with immediate target at 50% Fib Level at .9472. MACD points to short this pair as well. This pair has started its retracement as of today. See the chart below |
11-16-2007, 01:03 PM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 748
|
|
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.00 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.74 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 1.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 12.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
Source: FXCM Execution Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
11-18-2007, 02:41 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 32
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Hi Kurt, Just wanted to let you know that we have a room focused specifically on Elliot Wave that Jamie Saettele, our Technical Strategist, pretty much runs. I think you'll find it very useful, especially if you're just learning it: http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...play.php?f=138 |
Hi Terri and thanks for pointing me there. I've stuck my elongated proboscis in there and will continue to do so to learn what I can. |
11-18-2007, 05:54 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 35
|
|
|
Busy Weekend
So OPEC yammered something about providing adequate, timely and sufficient supplies of oil...which should be another way of saying they will raise production again next month. In conjunction with the UN report on climate change essentially saying that if we don't stop burning fossil fuels right now, we'll all die a horrible death (I'm paraphrasing here) we might see some more downward pressure on oil prices (barring any new geo-political issues).
More importantly, David Dodge (Bank of Canada) essentially said they would be lowering interest rates next month.
So if we can get oil down and Canadian interest rates down...so goes the CAD.
|
11-19-2007, 12:39 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 19
|
|
Yellow's Monday CAD thoughts....
Hi All,
Just a couple thoughts from old charts with the old analysis and tags still attached.
Nice reversal candle pattern on the weekly.
A little early with my bottom call but what's 500 pips among friends. Parity is a level of interest here.
The 4hr clearly shows the impulse off the low.
I've got one more low for EURUSD to 1.4850 and here I favor the .786 retracement level at .9233. That's the 17.944 extension of that little channel of wave i off the head and shoulders in August.
Wishing Everyone a Very Happy Thanksgiving,
Yellowlion |
11-19-2007, 11:09 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,805
|
|
|
I'm disappointed we didn't get to hear more about what Dodge said at the G20 meeting this weekend. A few places are reporting that he suggested that the Canadian currency is shouldering a disproportionate weight in the US dollar's drop (a shot at pegged and managed float currencies like the yuan), like he suggested he would. But I'm sure there was far more commentary on the Canadian dollar's heights.
More importantly, the governor came out and actually suggested a rate cut is possible due to the "risks" to growth. See, he has been relatively mum on the currency; so whenever he speaks, he actually has some influence over the loonie with mere commentary.
Good bounce off a 50% fib lining up with the 0.97 level. Let's see if we can get to parity before Wednesday's retail data. If inflation holds at its current levels tomorrow, it could support Dodge's outlook and then we have the Beige Book tomorrow.
|
11-19-2007, 12:20 PM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 748
|
|
USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.09 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.97 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 1.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 9.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 14.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
Source: FXCM Execution Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
11-19-2007, 05:07 PM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 734
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
I'm disappointed we didn't get to hear more about what Dodge said at the G20 meeting this weekend. A few places are reporting that he suggested that the Canadian currency is shouldering a disproportionate weight in the US dollar's drop (a shot at pegged and managed float currencies like the yuan), like he suggested he would. But I'm sure there was far more commentary on the Canadian dollar's heights.
More importantly, the governor came out and actually suggested a rate cut is possible due to the "risks" to growth. See, he has been relatively mum on the currency; so whenever he speaks, he actually has some influence over the loonie with mere commentary.
|
It should be interesting to listen to what Dodge has to say following tomorrow's BoC Rate announcement. I have a feeling that he will have specific words for Loonie strength. In the past this may not have been enough to drive a Loonie move, but recent skittishness may multiply the effects of a CAD-bearish statement.
|
11-19-2007, 06:34 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 675
|
|
|
Should Dodge cut he will be the first central banker to cut rates due to the credit crisis, besides the US Fed.
He should be increasing rates not cutting. Canadian Oil and Gold is still very high. However I think it's just coordinated talk to bid the USD. We are almost at parity now, no cut and back down we go.
If he cuts i'll close my short position. The coward.
Last edited by speculator84; 11-19-2007 at 06:48 PM..
|
11-19-2007, 09:49 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 32
|
|
|
Anyone else see a corrective C wave yet to come from the recent move up? My count makes us at the top of B with a move to C around the 0.965 (38.2% Fib) area before we go anywhere else. Perhaps oil is giving up the ghost, but not without a fight...
Last edited by kurt683; 11-20-2007 at 11:03 PM..
Reason: Correction to wave C calculation.
|
11-20-2007, 06:14 AM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 808
|
|
|
Canadian inflation unexpectedly slowed in October, with headline CPI down 0.3 percent while the annual rate eased back to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's core measure dropped 0.2 percent while the annual rate fell below the 2.0 percent target to 1.8 percent. The drop was led by gasoline, as the rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar drives down the prices of imported goods. With inflation for the fourth quarter likely to miss the BOC's forecasts, they may be more inclined to consider cutting rates, especially as the financial markets remain unstable.
USD/CAD has rocketed near 80 points higher in the minutes following the release to test 0.9850, though the pair has subsequently pulled back slightly. With significant event risk out of the US on tap today (housing data at 8:30 EST and FOMC minutes at 14:00 EST), this could prove to be a choppy day of trading for the pair.
|
11-20-2007, 06:34 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 399
|
|
|
We are now seeing very string evidence of the impact of super strong loonie on CAD economy and it makes the prospects of any BOC rate hikes highly unlikely. At this point CAD will only re-rally if oil goes above $100/bbl
|
11-20-2007, 06:35 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 399
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Should Dodge cut he will be the first central banker to cut rates due to the credit crisis, besides the US Fed.
He should be increasing rates not cutting. Canadian Oil and Gold is still very high. However I think it's just coordinated talk to bid the USD. We are almost at parity now, no cut and back down we go.
If he cuts i'll close my short position. The coward.
|
Spec - how do you feel about you short given today's CPI data? |
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
