i actually decided to short the USD/CAD this morning and am currently up $432.00. Still looking for better ways to keep track of news.

cmutdhastira:

Don't put too much stock in the oil prices to be in direct correlation to The Cad moving higher. Over the past few weeks the currency completely ignored the push to new highs and only rercently has the correlation come back. The best thing to do is stick to economic releases and scan websites like www.cbc.ca/business and bloomberg.com for political and extraeconomical events. You can get a printable calendar at http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?opt...fing&Itemid=41 with all the important events.

The trade you made on the CAD was a good one. Did you make in on technical factors or did you follow oil?

I think I'll short the USDCAD if the pair closes below the the rising trend today and look for profit at around 1.2100.

Attached Images

 

Mighty Mouse:

my trade was strictly based off of oil. A historical high futures price was something monumental enough for me to trade on. I took a gamble to see if I could make a few bucks. Thanks for the advice on fundamental analysis by the way.

1.17?

profx10:

You think the USD/CAD will push to 1.17? I think it may be possible if the U.S. trade balance severly disappoints and Cad trade balance thrills, but I don't know if their is anything else that would really offer up enough pressure to push the pair that low. I'm taking a gamble and going long off of pure technicals. It may be a bad idea to do this before the U.S. and Cad trade balance figures, but I'll keep a tight stop.

If anybody can see a tech. reason not to be long, please tell me!

Attached Images

 

1.17 is very bearish for the USD/CAD, however the Canadian dollar is stronger this summer than last. (oil, expectations a year close of 1.10 by many of the canadian banks, and the reopening at the boarder for Canadian beef). 1.17 last summer was based on expectations alone. The Canadian dollar looks to be the golden currency as of yet. A fall interest rate increase will push the USD/CAD down further than 1.17......

but then again, 1.17 is very bearish.

The price rose off today suprisingly in the illiquid hours. Looks like it is all tech. analysis guys trading in the after hours. Took my 50 pip profit, but it looks like it may continue higher. The funda. will probably support the dollar for the rest of the week. Cad has manufacturing shipments (supposed to be worse) and that can't stand against the better expected CPI and retail sales. Friday is the same story, but it could be iffy with the US's releases.

Maybe i should have stayed in for more than just 50 pips.

Hi Mouse
I feel the same way and took A short today at 121.93 and it went north but pulled back to 122.05.
There is lots of cross trading and causing swings hope Monday big blue will go south?? before my stop at 1.2229.
Mac

Hi

I have been looking at the daily chart for this pair and I have to say I can't see it going down during the next few days(based on technicals).

It seems to have found bottom at .2030. The RSI is pointing up and reaching 50, the Stochs are rebounding from low oversold levels and have just done a bullish cross. The MACD has reached its low and is rebounding as it nears 0 and looks to bullish cross in the next day or two. It looks to be on its way up from a hit at the lower bollinger band. It has clearly crossed the 38% fib of its last several days drop. The 61% fib is at .2280 but I would look for it to go past .2300 until it nears the april 21st bottom at .2347.

.2345 seems a viable a target, July 13's close at .2124 makes a good stop in case it fails to work out this upward bias.

...but don't take my word on any of it.

The Cad is closing in on the falling trendline and a quick retracement maybe called for, but the risk/reward and within the time frame of big US economic data, it may not be prudent to do. I would like to to go long over the first falling trend, but then the second-longer trend is right behind it and with the lack of volatility in this pair recently, I'm not confident that it will press through both. But when the pair breaks the longer trend, you can bet i will be long for that.

What's everyone else's take on the pair?

Attached Images

 

I liked a long a back at .2175 but now that it has made its move I like a short when it hits that line at .2345, for a pullback to the mid to lows .22's. After that I guess another long...but like you said if it breaks and sustains the move above the trend line, it just may keep going up.

I like candle patterns so its gonna depend on the close following the .2345 hit, which maybe tommorrow's close since the spot is right about there right now. If its bearish then the short with a tight stop(25 points above .2345) would be my choice, especially if the 4 hour stochs begin to unwind from overbought.



edit: It just shot through .2345 big time!

Yeah, technically speaking, a short entry right now would be a pretty good bet. The stochs on the four hour chart are really beginning to move out of the overbought range with a bounce off of a strong falling trendline. But be careful of economic data. Cad data is supposted to be better tommorow and there is little out of the U.S. that will be important. But if their are any suprises, it could kick the pair up to that trendline again. If I was going to trade this short, I'd put a stop a little above where the line is for today's bar (so as to account for any tails). I think that would be pretty safe - baring any huge extra-economic data.

What do you think Gridrunner?

Attached Images

 

I don't know man, waiting for today's data and watching which way it breaks from this .2335 to .2385 range is one idea.

On the daily chart the longer term downtrend channel(if still valid) is saying(IMO) the pair hit the high and should retrace. On the same chart, the shorter term up-channel is saying(IMO) the same.

EUR/USD is a good barometer, and the Euro is rallying. If today we get a good looking red candle I'll look to short it tommorow.

What is your opnion on it as it stands right now, do you think the down channel will hold?

Looking technicals, a short would look good right now. It would look good to set a sell below that bottom of the short term trend channel, starting at July 14 with a stop at yesterday's high. I'm also pulling a 61.8 fibo from the jan. 12 low to the May 16 high that is sitting almost squarely at 1.2250, which would be a subsequent entry for the position. It would be hard to tell where to take profits though. The short term rising trend is at about 1. 2030 but there is some consolidation in the 1.2200-1.2150 area that could slow it down.

I don't think I'll take the trade b/c I would have missed out on a lot of the move already. Not to mention a close stop would be hard to pin down. But if the pair stops at the 1.2250 level and turns, I may go long to the top of the longer channel with a tight stop.

Are you still thinking of getting in this trade?

I jumped in at .2350 with at stop at above that little range(.2335-.2385) at .2395. First target is .2250, if it gets there I'll trail it closely.

I chose not to wait for the red candle close that I mentioned I would wait for, one of the reasons is I initially wanted the short at .2345 and after sensing some easing from the spike high I decided to enter right about there at .2350.

On the weekly this pair has been in a range of abouts .1950-.2750 since the begining of this year. We're currently at the lower portion of this range with the pair at oversold weekly levels. In my assesment the longer term trend on the daily is no longer valid, on the same chart,(which you have above) the shorter term up trend coincides with the weekly trend and in my opnion this is the current valid trend, meaning that .2250 area should hold and any break should just be a false signal.

The safer trade and most technically sound as I see it is the one you're planning, a long at .2250, which I will also look to enter.


Thanks for posting the charts, I would but I can't find where windows XP stashes my print screens...

edit: what moving averages did you use on that last chart?