USD/CAD - Page 51

John Kicklighter · #**751** (**permalink**) 11-28-2007, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

It's getting exciting. USDCAD popped out about its modest rising trend channel and came within 15 points of reaching parity. At this point it seems only a matter of time and social grace before we have our test of 1.0000. And, if traders jump on this level, I will be looking for momentum to 1.0330 and 1.0480.

My short-term long USDCAD position from 0.9930 is in the money and I moved my stop up to break even. This may be stopped out at b/e if we continue to see hesitation below parity as I feel like a correction could start to bubble up. Thoughts?

I was tagged out for a 20 point profit, but that is alright. Profit is profit and I'm still concerned with the medium and long-term direction for USDCAD. However, if we can get a move above parity, my confidence in a longer-term trade will be much greater. Right now, I'm not going to put in for an order entry (opting instead for a market order) to avoid a scenario where the market drives us through parity in an exhaustion rally just to clear out the milestone.

It looks like we may also have a case for some short side momentum; however, the floor of a rising trend may keep us in the medium/short-term rising trend. Considering a long limit entry order at around 0.9845/55, but will have to wait until we get closer before I put that position in.

Antonio Sousa · #**752** (**permalink**) 11-28-2007, 01:13 PM

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.97 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.68 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 11.7% lower than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.4% weaker than yesterday and 10.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

John Kicklighter · #**753** (**permalink**) 11-29-2007, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I was tagged out for a 20 point profit, but that is alright. Profit is profit and I'm still concerned with the medium and long-term direction for USDCAD. However, if we can get a move above parity, my confidence in a longer-term trade will be much greater. Right now, I'm not going to put in for an order entry (opting instead for a market order) to avoid a scenario where the market drives us through parity in an exhaustion rally just to clear out the milestone.

It looks like we may also have a case for some short side momentum; however, the floor of a rising trend may keep us in the medium/short-term rising trend. Considering a long limit entry order at around 0.9845/55, but will have to wait until we get closer before I put that position in.

Darn it all! I had two chances to jump in on a long position at the bottom of the trend channel last night, but I didn't take them (the first I was skeptical and the second one I was asleep for). After deliberating last night before leaving the office, I decided that I didn't want to take the risk of a commodity-driven move (clearly not a factor given the surge in oil), more dollar volatility or pre-news release jitters. In retrospect - dumb move. The probabilities were there, so I should at least put in a small position with a relatively tight stop.

Now I will wait until we can get through parity. I might take a small position 10 points above 1.00 and then add to it if we can break through the top of this rising trend channel. Under the same formation, my initial position will have a tight, trailing stop in case the channel controls price.

David Rodriguez · #**754** (**permalink**) 11-29-2007, 11:49 AM

From today's Weekly SSI report:

USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.88 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.03 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 0.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.3% weaker than yesterday and 9.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

John Kicklighter · #**755** (**permalink**) 11-30-2007, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Darn it all! I had two chances to jump in on a long position at the bottom of the trend channel last night, but I didn't take them (the first I was skeptical and the second one I was asleep for). After deliberating last night before leaving the office, I decided that I didn't want to take the risk of a commodity-driven move (clearly not a factor given the surge in oil), more dollar volatility or pre-news release jitters. In retrospect - dumb move. The probabilities were there, so I should at least put in a small position with a relatively tight stop.

Now I will wait until we can get through parity. I might take a small position 10 points above 1.00 and then add to it if we can break through the top of this rising trend channel. Under the same formation, my initial position will have a tight, trailing stop in case the channel controls price.

Pressure is building at parity (not surprising), so the trend channel could be loosing its influence. We say a 15-minute candle close above 1.00 earlier this morning, but clearly it was a run that was ill supported as price action immediately pulled back after the test.

Event risk is going to hit up next week for both the Canadian and US dockets, so we will likely have a good fundamental influence. Though, recently, it looks like price action has been more sentiment driven - buying the pair from its record low despite positive Canadian data. Though, it's interesting to note crude oil has pulled back considerably from its highs. Though this happened just over the past few days and USDCAD has been rising for the past few weeks, could it mean a new, cemented correlation?

Big Mike · #**756** (**permalink**) 11-30-2007, 06:31 PM

The recent action (Nov 15-29) of USD CAD looks to me like a diagonal triangle, which is usually a termination point after a bull run. If I am correct, we might expect one more wave down to 0.990, followed by a move to 1.01; it would be even nicer if we could see an overthrow above 1.01 to confirm.
Once this formation is complete, it will be followed by a swift down move, which will take us below wave 4 (0.9506, Nov. 13), according to Elliott.
Anybody cares to comment?

Big Mike · #**757** (**permalink**) 12-01-2007, 04:32 PM

Hello everybody,
Allow me to introduce myself to this forum. My name is Mike; I've been trading stocks and options for almost 10 years now, but I don't have much experience in currencies. Notwithstanding, some similar principles apply here, too.
Now, getting to the point:
USDCAD looks like it is in the culmination formation, it developed over the last 14 days a form tytpiaclly called Diagonal Triangle, which is an extended wave 5 with its own subwaves.
It will terminate soon, followed by a sharp drop to the level of (approximately) wave 4, which was 0.9605.
How soon? The formation is almost ready; it would be nice to see a final outburst to 1.01, or so, before it drops (so called overthrow).
Can anyone comment? Even, if you don't agree?
Mike

Big Mike · #**758** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 11:19 AM

I entered short position for USDCAD at 0.99925 last night.
For the time being, it is going nowhere, but slightly in the wrong direction.
It should go to 0.9513, imho. It might take a day, or two.

John Kicklighter · #**759** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Hello everybody,
Allow me to introduce myself to this forum. My name is Mike; I've been trading stocks and options for almost 10 years now, but I don't have much experience in currencies. Notwithstanding, some similar principles apply here, too.
Now, getting to the point:
USDCAD looks like it is in the culmination formation, it developed over the last 14 days a form tytpiaclly called Diagonal Triangle, which is an extended wave 5 with its own subwaves.
It will terminate soon, followed by a sharp drop to the level of (approximately) wave 4, which was 0.9605.
How soon? The formation is almost ready; it would be nice to see a final outburst to 1.01, or so, before it drops (so called overthrow).
Can anyone comment? Even, if you don't agree?
Mike

Hey Mike. Welcome to the forum. Momentum has certainly slowed into 1.0, but I don't see the triangle you are speaking of - the top node. Are you pulling the falling half of the triangle from the 8/29 high? I guess it depends more on what time frame you are looking at.

My primary formation for the short and medium term is stilled contained to the rising trend channel - even if I'm concerned about momentum. I'm still picking small trades with nearby targets on the way up until we can break to the downside or the long-term confirms an uptrend with my medium and short frequencies for bigger positions.

I'm looking at 1.115/30 as the my next major resistance, but I' ready to reverse if the rising trend channel falls through.

I don't know if you have seen this, but if you are interested in talking more elliot wave, Jamie moderates an elliot wave dedicated forum.

Big Mike · #**760** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 12:24 PM

Hello John,
Thank you for the nice welcoming message to this Forum. I am glad to be here.
I am new to this site, so i am struggling with some details, like how to post messages and how to attach pictures.
Having said that, i will try to attach a sketch of my Triangle and will paste it to the next message, if I succeed.

Big Mike · #**761** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 12:36 PM

I am trying to attach a sketch, above. Since the is the first time, I might have problems with it.
Look at my lines, to me the formation right now is the termination formation, called diagonal triangle.
My Fibonacci numbers indicate that it could go to 1.01, before it reverses.

Big Mike · #**762** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 12:44 PM

Shoot, my image didn't attach. I am trying again.
(I am clicking on "attach image", then copy and paste the URL. Is this the proper way?)

Big Mike · #**763** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 01:07 PM

http://quote2.fxtrek.com/misc/fxcm2.asp

Please help me to attach a chart.
I tried "copy and paste", (above) but had difficulties

barbapapa · #**764** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 01:50 PM

hello, i made an elliot wave count on daily usdcad, can you tell me what do you think about this count and if you agree or disagree with this. thank you guys. i want to explain that count by the fact that we have an extended wave 5 which has an extended wave 5, this indicate that we must have a retracement to the low at 0.9055.

John Kicklighter · #**765** (**permalink**) 12-03-2007, 02:05 PM

Hey Mike,

After you save the chart you want to upload, you just hit the 'Manage Attachments' button under additional options. Then when the new window pops up, hit browse and select the image you want to put up and hit upload. I recommend trying gif files as they are relatively small and they automatically show up on the website (make sure they aren't too large though otherwise it will go over the site's size limit and an add can cut it off). I use Irfan View to cut my pics. It's free software.