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06-06-2008, 09:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicolebobbin
USD-CAD
One move lower to 1.0100 or 1.0036 is anticipated while below 1.0178 - 1.0210 area. Stop loss above 1.0256 zone.
Source : FXCM Blog |
I like how that guy poached on the FXCM brand name....
I'm actually short as well. Entered half my normal position size on a short at 1.02 on the basis of the falling trendline from the January swing high (which is more or less a range high with a tilt); and the fact that volatility was going to die out through the week's end.
Of course, I didn't go in at my regular size because there is still so much upside momentum on the pair through the week. We have seen USDCAD's advance slow into this technical level though. Once again, I'm trying to make an overall technical trade with a pair that doesn't like to obey its technicals. |
06-06-2008, 02:55 PM
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Due for a fall
In my opinion, this pair is due for a correction lower. It's advanced upwards 7 days in a row, oil hit an all time high today of $138 a barrel and the US unemployment news was far worse than anticipated.
I'm thinking we can see this pair back near par by Tuesday or Wednesday. What do you guys think?
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06-06-2008, 06:57 PM
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C$ and oil have decoupled so it doesn't matter what oil does. Anyway the oil spike over the last couple of days was overwhelmed by by some poor economic news in central canada. I think the market is being moved mainly by interest rate expecations. I expect continued C$ weakness until the BOC changes its dovish bias. This shift should happen when canadian inflation picks up.
Last edited by SkiBunny; 06-06-2008 at 07:01 PM..
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06-08-2008, 04:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
C$ and oil have decoupled so it doesn't matter what oil does. Anyway the oil spike over the last couple of days was overwhelmed by by some poor economic news in central canada. I think the market is being moved mainly by interest rate expecations. I expect continued C$ weakness until the BOC changes its dovish bias. This shift should happen when canadian inflation picks up.
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Thanks Skibunny. Why have they decoupled and when? Just 2 weeks ago it seems like this pair was falling and the reason largely given was the rising price of oil (since Canada has so much of it). |
06-09-2008, 12:01 PM
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Here's some hard data for you guys to chew on.
Yield expectations have shot up in the past few months in favor of the US dollar (not unexpected give the market's heavy discount for the US curve). On the other hand, crude has jumped and not taken the Canadian currency with it. In effect, I think there fundamental influences are offsetting each other and keeping USDCAD stationary.
Interesting side not, there is still a pretty good correlation between USDCAD and gold. The precious metal is a good inflation gauge and benchmark commodity - duel influences.
Remember, these correlations are long-term things, so it's not going to be point-for-point response. These relationships are important when there is a really big move, big reversal or some sort of milestone is marked.
Still short on small size. Waiting for it to do something so I can put on a real position.
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06-09-2008, 12:14 PM
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AUDUSD has been offering ridiculous range trades recently. Volatility has experienced high volatility but been contained to a pretty tight 0.95-0.9650 congestion zone for three week's now.
I'm not going to try to take part in this range - a little too tight for my liking. Anyway, I'm still long AUDJPY. Like that pair better because it still has a lot of upside potential, where the dollar is trying to find its footing. Nonetheless, could have a pretty big breakout from AUDUSD soon. I may play a break above 0.9650 (especially if it follows a fake break of 0.95 before the rising trend kicks in) or a break below 0.9425.
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06-10-2008, 02:35 AM
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Although, I feel that we will see a bit of a retrace after the rate decision, since Governor Carney is expected to signal the end of the current easing cycle after a 25 point rate cut. Longer term I see USDCAD heading toward 1.0459 50.0% Fibo of 1.1874-0.9056. Especially, with the anticipated demand destruction for oil due to the global slowdown and also be aware that intervention talk has resurfaced which may really start to depress oil prices. Although, they are rebounding today.
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06-10-2008, 09:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiBunny
C$ and oil have decoupled so it doesn't matter what oil does. Anyway the oil spike over the last couple of days was overwhelmed by by some poor economic news in central canada. I think the market is being moved mainly by interest rate expecations. I expect continued C$ weakness until the BOC changes its dovish bias. This shift should happen when canadian inflation picks up.
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Since they kept interest rates at 3%, has this signaled a change in their 'dovish bias'? |
06-10-2008, 09:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fxvalor
Since they kept interest rates at 3%, has this signaled a change in their 'dovish bias'?
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Yeah, they are now firmly neutral. Their outlook for inflation sees core CPI below 2.0% (their target rate) through 2009, but they noted the risk of a pace above 3.0 percent should energy prices remain near highs. They also suggested credit conditions are improving and growth would 'pick up' this year and accelerate through 2009.
Clearly a hawkish tone to this commentary. And, to top it all off, they called the currency policy rate "appropriately accommodative." A tribute to the ECB?
Crazy volatility. USDCAD was 100 points down in a few seconds. This BoC outlook is about the same (perhaps a little more aggressive) as the Fed . With this event risk, we are now stuck in the middle of the range again.... I need a breakout. |
06-10-2008, 09:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
AUDUSD has been offering ridiculous range trades recently. Volatility has experienced high volatility but been contained to a pretty tight 0.95-0.9650 congestion zone for three week's now.
I'm not going to try to take part in this range - a little too tight for my liking. Anyway, I'm still long AUDJPY. Like that pair better because it still has a lot of upside potential, where the dollar is trying to find its footing. Nonetheless, could have a pretty big breakout from AUDUSD soon. I may play a break above 0.9650 (especially if it follows a fake break of 0.95 before the rising trend kicks in) or a break below 0.9425.
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We're below the range support and now back testing the rising trend around 0.9465/75. If I weren't long AUDJPY already, I would take an exploratory long position in AUDUSD to the upside. Maybe I will take some very small size that I can build up on signs of a real recovery...
A breakout to the downside, I would certainly jump on as there is lots of room to run and it would hedge my AUDJPY position.
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06-10-2008, 10:07 AM
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I just went long USDCAD at 1.0210 with SL 1.0160 and TP1: 1.0310
any suggestions? im not too experienced with the USDCAD market...
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06-10-2008, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tabimansour
I just went long USDCAD at 1.0210 with SL 1.0160 and TP1: 1.0310
any suggestions? im not too experienced with the USDCAD market...
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Can you tell us which time frame you are trading....... each time frame has its unique cycles.... |
06-10-2008, 10:29 AM
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1hr / 4hr usually ... showing uptrend + standing over the 1.0200 support now. in case that was broken i can close with little loss and go reverse.
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06-10-2008, 10:48 AM
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a quick look at the 240 minute chart shows some divergence indicating that there will be a down move..
Perhaps you will observe your chart to see if you agree....
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06-10-2008, 10:53 AM
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according to fib levels ... the downtrend could reach 1.0130-50's at max ...
do you have a ready chart for USDCAD that might be helpful to better analyse the situation?
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