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06-05-2005, 10:47 PM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 507
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Usd/cad
being that I mainly trade the USD/CAD, (I also trade the EUR/USD, and others), I wanted to start a thread that focus' mainly on that pair. I believe it is one of the best pairs to understand and pinpoint with confedence its direction. Please feel free to add any ideas at anytime, everyone is welcome, and any input is valued.
Thank you
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06-05-2005, 10:55 PM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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to start.....
June 5 2005, current price 1.2472,
trade, short @ 1.2490, looking to test 1.2152,
reasons, the Canadian economy is strong, it has no worries, inflation is under control and the political mess is out of the spotlight, (plus the house rests for the summer in a month). The weak economic numbers from the US will benifit the Loonie, however last week the BOC decided that it wont increase rates till the fall, this will leave traders minds in the next few days, and traders will then compair the Canadian economy to the US, and as of right now, the Canadian economy is expanding at a greater rate.
Negative Factors, - Loonie, NONE
Greenback - slowing economy, consumer debt, trade balance, flat yield curve.
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06-06-2005, 01:03 AM
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18
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usd/cad
Hi
Glad to see I found a site and forum the that will share ideas on the $CAD I aggree with your comments and would like to add with the PQ leader stepping down in Quebec does not harm $cad.
I have also shorted June-3 @ 1.24.71 looking for 1.23.60.
mac
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06-06-2005, 01:41 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4
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oil
In addition to the reasons mentioned, as oil prices continue to rise, shorting the USD will continue to be a profitable venture. The CAD is the biggest beneficiary when oil prices rise because they are the largest exporter to the US and trail only Saudi Arabia in reserves held. One thing to watch out for though is if OPEC does in fact increase production of oil.
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06-06-2005, 10:12 PM
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minor support is located at the 1.2425-60 level, if it can break it, it will be smooth sailing to 1.2310-30. Expect some stalling at 1.2410
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06-07-2005, 05:16 PM
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The big $ had a nice run up today but just managed to break last high as I shorted as my overnight charts was marked at 1.2499 on the third leg up.
Now we can see at 1.2450 is we can take out 1.2400 all the way down to 1.2360??.
Mac
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06-07-2005, 09:25 PM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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Quote:
Originally posted by rmac
The big $ had a nice run up today but just managed to break last high as I shorted as my overnight charts was marked at 1.2499 on the third leg up.
Now we can see at 1.2450 is we can take out 1.2400 all the way down to 1.2360??.
Mac
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its the 4th day now that it has been testing 1.2450, it looks like its going to break it either later tonight, or during the europe session. When compaired to the other USD crosses, the Loonie is undervalued. After it breaks support, I can see the Loonie trading as low as 1.20-1.21, in the near future |
06-08-2005, 12:13 AM
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Hi
Have been using last Fridays high/low as my entry for the trend downwardswhich today seen the daily RSI bearish.
I would like to see the 1.2450 taken out cleanly as ther must be option barriers at this level?
MAC
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06-08-2005, 12:28 AM
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Economist
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Join Date: Apr 2005
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Quote:
Originally posted by rmac
Hi
Have been using last Fridays high/low as my entry for the trend downwardswhich today seen the daily RSI bearish.
I would like to see the 1.2450 taken out cleanly as ther must be option barriers at this level?
MAC
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its weak support at 1.2450, if a major player was protecting it we would have seen a sharp increase in the USD, (for protection). Also 1.2450 has been broken several times, so the one touch options would be worthless. I cant see any reason for support at that level. (On my chart I have 1.2425-35 as support)
gl |
06-09-2005, 12:10 AM
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Has the trend changed I sold today at 1.2439 but took a sell 1.2510 before being stopped out.
Friday may give direction
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06-09-2005, 04:19 PM
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Economist
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Quote:
Originally posted by rmac
Has the trend changed I sold today at 1.2439 but took a sell 1.2510 before being stopped out.
Friday may give direction
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the trend is still down.... looking at re-shorting around 1.26 if it gets that high |
06-09-2005, 06:23 PM
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USD/CAD chart
Last edited by profx10; 06-09-2005 at 06:26 PM..
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06-09-2005, 09:43 PM
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Hi
I am looking on A pullback ar 1.2510 to go long but friday is the key.
mac
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06-09-2005, 11:28 PM
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Economist
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I dont think going long is the way to go,
the US numbers have been poor, the USD/CAD has lost some ground due to EUR/USD selling. The Canadian numbers are good, plus if the US raises rates it leaves BOC raising them as well. Can not see a speard of more than .5%. A BOC rate hike will carry more weight with the Loonie than the Greenback. The last run was a spike only, it will retract in the next few days.
....however if 1.2750 is broken, I will then go long
gl
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06-10-2005, 07:45 PM
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Hi Profx10
Appreciate your comments and input on c$ the big blue took out all the other currencies today exceptc$.
On that note the c$ could not break1.2450 and if you go back to June -1 same thing. except for JUNE-6/7 went ther 37 times.
Still looking to long at 1.2560 and short at 1.2450.
Both these currencies will gain on the Euro.
MAC
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