Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 10

arco · #**136** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 03:26 AM

Hi Tony

Action holding just above the 50% retrace of the last move but still below 220,
so thats what I'm currently watching as pivot.

rgds - arco

#**137** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 03:37 AM

Morning Arco - did you finish your newspaper round? Hehe!

I understand your view, and I have a math level at 121.97 and an industry day pivot at 122.02, but it has not reacted away from these or your levels. Worth a rebound if anything is??

Empire Manufacturing has a downside risk, but I THINK the Japanese et al will start selling yen at 21:00 GMT in advance of the Tertiary Index, and I would take a long position at 121.78, with low mom.

arco · #**138** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 04:40 AM

Good Morning Tony.
(Here in NZ its evening).

FX markets could be quieter today

Third Monday of July (national holiday)
Ocean Day (umi no hi): A recently introduced national holiday to celebrate the ocean. The day marks the return of Emperor Meiji from a boat trip to Hokkaido in 1876.

arco

arco · #**139** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 04:58 AM

Anyone into Ichimoku?

Its something I studied in great depth, and is mainly useful for longer term trends IMO.

The trend is deemed to be upward when the Chikou span is located above the closing prices and downward when the indicator is located below them. Many traders watch for the Chikou span to cross below the closing prices as a signal that the price of the asset is getting exhausted and is likely to experience a pullback. On this chart we see the Chikou Span (Green) has broken through the plot. The action has already tested the Kumo (cloud) once and may do again.

#**140** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arco

Good Morning Tony.
(Here in NZ its evening).

FX markets could be quieter today

Third Monday of July (national holiday)
Ocean Day (umi no hi): A recently introduced national holiday to celebrate the ocean. The day marks the return of Emperor Meiji from a boat trip to Hokkaido in 1876.
arco

Ah, so you'll be away down to the pie shop on your bike, then?

I was reading Jamie's a-b-c of this pair, which might explain the 3-leg five down that's finishing. Anyway, I stand by my cycles that there will be a pullback at least after the Empire Manu is clear of the wires at 12:30 GMT, and certainly at 22:00 pom time. I shall be asleep in Thailand.

Hoftman · #**141** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 08:24 AM

Hi guys!

It's been a long, long time. I'm no longer with the bank so I'm cleared to post, again.

Have a very profitable week!
Hoftman

Outstanding Order:
s000usdjpy123‰s123¾t118¾

PS: There should be a USD/CHF thread...

.

Terri Belkas · #**142** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoftman

Hi guys!

It's been a long, long time. I'm no longer with the bank so I'm cleared to post, again.

Have a very profitable week!
Hoftman

Outstanding Order:
s000usdjpy123‰s123¾t118¾

PS: There should be a USD/CHF thread...

.

Hi Hoftman, we've been discussing USD/CHF in the "Other Crosses" room, feel free to join in!

#**143** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

The USDJPY rally from 120.97 is in 5 waves, which strongly indicates that the entire decline from 124.13 was an a-b-c correction. The decline from 122.61 has been corrective so far and ended near the 61.8% of 120.97-122.61 at 121.60. 120.97 must hold in order to keep the bullish structure intact. A rally through 122.18 instills confidence in the bullish case.

Targets for USDJPY and EURJPY respectively are 121.30 and 167.20-10. This by end Thursday 18th.
Frequently, USDJPY will correct 76.4% on such a cycle as this one, and so I think we are currently half way down with a contracting price pattern that should make for an easy entry.

Regards
Tony

#**144** (**permalink**) 07-16-2007, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

Initially the yen sold off on news that an earthquake stroke Japan during last night. However, the yen managed to recover all the losses in less than two hours once traders realized the earthquake didn’t cause a lot of damage. This is in our opinion a very bullish signal for the Japanese yen.

A friend emailed me an extract from the Osaka Shimbun, as follows.

"Taxi driver Yoshi Kawasaki appeared in Osaka Magistrates Court today
charged with running two red lights in central district. Apologizing,
Mr Kawasaki said his mobile phone battery was down and he was trying
to reach his foreign exchange broker to meet a margin call. Imposing a fine
and a caution, Magistrate Eiji Mizuho told Mr Kawasaki that if he paid more
attention to driving his taxi and less to driving the foreign exchange market,
it would be safer for everyone."

arco · #**145** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 12:42 AM

Mr Gann nailed it nearly to the pip - yesterdays low 121.53

Post #146 active Gann targets (potential supports) below @ 121.54

Max day trading profit using pivot mentioned - circa 40 pips.

Todays active Gann points

121.40 Major

and further below for reference

120.70
120.16
119.97

GT - arco

#**146** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arco

Mr Gann nailed it nearly to the pip - yesterdays low 121.53

Post #146 active Gann targets (potential supports) below @ 121.54

Max day trading profit using pivot mentioned - circa 40 pips.

Todays active Gann points

121.40 Major

and further below for reference

120.70
120.16
119.97

GT - arco

I have my own static math level at 121.40 precisely, too. And that is very close to 121.37 76.4%ret, and two price-time lines I have constructed are close by. Therefore it seems a logical point of support. However, it can go lower, as you imply.

As regards the timing, I make it about 12:30 GMT to go blind short from a high. Anything over 122 is really good value for money.

Tony

arco · #**147** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 06:50 AM

Hi Tony/All

Forgot to mention.............

Gann overhead 122.26/31

rgds - arco

fxtreme · #**148** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Check out the USDJPY, the pair just broke above 122.08, confirming that wave 3 up is underway. This is likely the beginning of a much stronger rally.

pair rite now at 122.05-10.....what about the impact of the subprime at the opening of NY market soon.....how much stronger are we actually talking about...?
Thanks for a quick reply,

fxtreme

fxtreme · #**149** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

Well, it's always important to watch how US equities open up. At T-15 minutes, Dow Jones futures (YM Contracts) are up 20 points. There's a decent chance we see 14,000 flash across the ticker today, which would definitely be bullish for the USDJPY.

Thanks a lot for your quick reply...I'm following the pair up as we speak
I've got info Dow Jones Average snapshot.(13,950.98)...anyway to tell where i can find real-time Dow Jones, please

Regards,

Fxtreme

fxtreme · #**150** (**permalink**) 07-17-2007, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

We use the Bloomberg Professional Service here, but an easy way to see free realtime quotes online is through MSN money. You need a hotmail or MSN account, but I suspect that most people have a hotmail account laying around.

Check them out here:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...eCharting.aspx

P.S. In case there was any confusion above, I said that the DJIA Futures were trading above 14,000, but that the actual index was below. The Futures will always trade at a premium to current prices to account for interest rates.

I've attached a Bloomberg screen with the most recent quotes on major world indices.

USD/JPY pair is indeed getting bullish 122.34-39....
thanks so much for your kindness to reply so swiftly....have a nice day,

Fxtreme