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07-23-2008, 11:49 AM
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Somewhat related to USDJPY in its risk-sentiment connection; but is anyone watching USDCHF? It's coming up on a falling trendline (one that looks a lot like it yen counterpart before it broke) and a notable 61.8% fib.
Anything think there is a trade here - breakout or range?
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07-23-2008, 12:53 PM
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Short for me
I am short USDCHF at 1.0350, jumped in a bit prematurely unfortunately. We have the falling trend line as resistance and the 61.8 fib (1.0630-1.0016) also at 1.0394. I'm long on EURUSD at 1.5704 and this pair normally acts as a mirror to the EUR.
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07-23-2008, 12:55 PM
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Sorry!
oops sorry John just saw your Fib levels drawn on the chart, sorry for statign the obvious in my post......  |
07-23-2008, 07:32 PM
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**Just some follow-up, I was promptly stopped out above my trendline. A swift reminder as to why I don't usually trade this pair I'll continue to watch from a distance. |
07-23-2008, 07:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pubber
oops sorry John just saw your Fib levels drawn on the chart, sorry for statign the obvious in my post...... |
No worries. Merely confirmation as to how obvious the technicals are - which is a good thing for setting up trades. |
07-23-2008, 08:02 PM
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UP Thursday
Following the strength of the greenback, USDJPY must now test 108.50-60, just as the euro must test its 61.8% retracement at 1.5584 (see other thread for my euro chart).
On the moving train principle, I would not take a short at 108.50-60 unless you see a 2-hour chart reversal confirmed. See how the euro performs at support. I suspect a dollar bull market is happening.  |
07-24-2008, 02:34 PM
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Shorting @ 108 looks to have been a decent range trade.
Market just doesn't seem to understand yet that this recession is neither shallow nor short-lived. Keeps being wishful about interest rate hikes. But let's see if we have a double top. I think an actual interest rate increase (not talk of one) is needed for the bull market to happen. Market would go nuts for a while afterwards. But until then, it will stay ranging, with some downward bias given the recession news that continues.
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07-24-2008, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewalker
Shorting @ 108 looks to have been a decent range trade.
Market just doesn't seem to understand yet that this recession is neither shallow nor short-lived. Keeps being wishful about interest rate hikes. But let's see if we have a double top. I think an actual interest rate increase (not talk of one) is needed for the bull market to happen. Market would go nuts for a while afterwards. But until then, it will stay ranging, with some downward bias given the recession news that continues.
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What about a surprisingly strong 2Q GDP number to dispel concerns of an imminent US recession? The advanced reading is due on the July 31st (the day before the July NFPs release). Economists' official consensus is already calling of a 2.0 percent pace of annualized expansion through the first half. Of course that does seem something of an optimistic forecast.... |
07-24-2008, 07:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
What about a surprisingly strong 2Q GDP number to dispel concerns of an imminent US recession? The advanced reading is due on the July 31st (the day before the July NFPs release). Economists' official consensus is already calling of a 2.0 percent pace of annualized expansion through the first half. Of course that does seem something of an optimistic forecast....
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I am sure it would spur a rally on interest rate expectations, but if the Fed does not follow through, I think it will fizzle again as soon as market is reminded that US economy is still stalled out. This is the pattern so far. I think either interest rates will have to be raised despite a recession or the recession will have to end for carry trades to break out. They want to break out, obviously, but they need fundementals in place to give them support.
Charlie. |
07-24-2008, 08:22 PM
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breakout or reverse?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewalker
Shorting @ 108 looks to have been a decent range trade.
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Absolutely right for Thursday - nothing else possible. But look out Friday, today!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewalker
.. But let's see if we have a double top.
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No such thing according to Prechter, unless the first move down was impulsive, creating a 1,2 situation with 2 being an 88.6% to 100% retracement. Do you see yesterday as being impulsive down? Aha!  |
07-25-2008, 11:28 AM
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There is some crazy price action for USDJPY. The falling trend that was broken on Wednesday is now longer a consideration as support or resistance; and the rising trend from the March swing low is long gone.
Technicals for me are now 108.50 to the upside and 104 to the downside.
Once again a perfect wedge passes on a major breakout to fall back into congestion.
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07-25-2008, 03:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
There is some crazy price action for USDJPY. The falling trend that was broken on Wednesday is now longer a consideration as support or resistance; and the rising trend from the March swing low is long gone.
Technicals for me are now 108.50 to the upside and 104 to the downside.
Once again a perfect wedge passes on a major breakout to fall back into congestion.
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We are stopped cold at 108. And we haven't been this overbought on the hourly chart it quite some time. I would expect a pullback from this top -- then it is up to the news we get next week.
Also, I have begun to consider analyst consensus on the USD/JPY to be a contrarian indicator ....
Charlie. |
07-25-2008, 03:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewalker
We are stopped cold at 108. And we haven't been this overbought on the hourly chart it quite some time. I would expect a pullback from this top -- then it is up to the news we get next week.
Also, I have begun to consider analyst consensus on the USD/JPY to be a contrarian indicator ....
Charlie. |
Ouch. In my defense, my CADJPY made my first target and then retraced to get stopped out near breakeven.
Looking at the yen calls (we have to review those on Wednesday - its difficult to call a trade on a specific day when something hasn't actually set up yet, though it does help you to develop a position on the market in general), they were pretty split on the USDJPY. Just a good indicator of a range conditions and the mix that fundamentals and technicals are playing in keeping the pair range bound.
Looking at any other yen crosses? |
07-26-2008, 07:20 AM
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Interesting
A look at the 4 hr chart and we have a strong resistance from 16 Jun and divergence on RSI, MACD, and slow stoch. My concern is on the daily we are right in no mans land of the 50 & 38.2% fib marks of the 124 top and 96 bottom. Also with the $ strengthening price can well push through this mark. Maybe I'll be more inclined to short at 108.60 where there is huge daily resistance.
What do you think?
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07-26-2008, 10:43 AM
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recovery to 50%-61,8% ?!
I think it is possible to see a recovery to 50% or 61,8% fibonacci to 110,00 and perhaps 113,00 in extension before price will change his direction.
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