I am inclined to agree with you, pubber, though I would be happy with 108.50 even. Monday should see some unwinding of the 2-hour momentum and I look to go long again at 107.63 As you can see from my chart, dollar yen is actually working in a channel (traders love channels), and there is plenty of support on the price/time line at 107.60 from the rising Gann line. If it drops more than I think, that would enhance the upside gain, which is only a miserable 50.

Have you seen Jamie's W X wave count? It's completely bizarre!

Tetron, re your comment "If it drops more than I think, that would enhance the upside gain, which is only a miserable 50" I don't understand what you mean there......
Although we are in this rising channel, as soon as the Fed stops flapping their mouth (which will hopefully be at 108.60) we should see a nice retrace?

Thanks

B

Cannot help but share my 2 cents on yen. it is imp to me now as yen could be the final deciding factor on euro next move against dollar and as well if euppy will stay below 170 or blast through it..

Looking initially 108.10 to cap for a possible move down to 107.62-68 quite possibly extending lower to 107.30 where it should meet decent demand.

On bigger picture 106.85-108.30 is the range to play with a break either side deciding the next bigger move to come.

Pointers: for eur/jpy to stay lower to 170, 108.50 would or should hold.
for euro again to descend higher yen again need to get pass below 106.70.

While euro / gbp / chf seems to be rebounding from their lows against dollar yen is finding hard to rally against the USD. all eyes on YEN to decide next possible move in the USD.......

Attached Files

YEN.doc (636.5 KB, 112 views)

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Stryker,

I too think we will see a reversal from the 108.20 region, I would like to say 108.50-60 as in my last post but don't want to miss out here. I'm not too concerned of catching some pips on the way up as too risky for me, but would see a short back down to 106.96 were the 200SMA sits on the daily chart.
As for if it shoots through the 108.50 mark and daily closes there the next stop is 110 (the begin of Jan 08 restistance, and 50% fib of 124.00-96.00 Jun07 - Mar 08).
so I think I will place a short at 108.35, SL 108.69 (just above 14 Feb high), TP 107.00.

Any comments on this please. Daily chart attached

Attached Images

 

Pubber,

i don't track avges, so no comment on it..
as for picking shorts there are quite few possibilities....
108 followed by 108.10 FOLLOWED BY 108.17-35 (tryable) to stops above 108.50 or above the 108.58........

the above is as for the TL's......

this would also hold, if euro dips lower to 5650 and would call for short covering in euppy......... good for yen to dip lower to tesing 107.30.....

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

took some light longs off 107.30 supp bailing out for 21 pips........ slow moving mkt and seems to be in a limbo........ would take whatever i can.
looking for a 107.80-85 stall to go short......... however better oppurtunities await around 108.15-25...

GL ALL.......

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Stryker,

Yes this market is painful! Not much going on.
I missed out on my short at 108.10 by 2 pips yesterday, took 15 pips off a long from 107.61.
I have taken a few pips off longs on USDCHF from 1.0324, but it just can't move up, EURUSD needs to move down for this to happen.

I have a short waiting at 107.95, SL 108.31.
EURJPY is also looking good so have a short awaiting at 169.70.

GL

i would assume the actual bigger movements should start up around IMM session tomorrow and thursday, plus NFP around the corner... but as always the nkt would do some 150 pips move prior to it....... need to catch that move....

GL .....

__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

It seems that despite the massive writedowns at ML and their plans to dump their debt onto an anxious market, the carry trades are doing pretty well.

Realistically, this move is solely the work of the dollar; but we have seen it have a real impact on USDJPY and USDCHF.

For USDCHF, the dollar's strength has led to a notable channel break which has significant room to run before major technical levels come into view.

USDJPY is another story, however. The dollar jump is noted, but the major break has not been confirmed (what I would consider a move beyond 108.50).

So which one is really reflecting the direction of the dollar and the carry? The USDCHF would suggest the dollar is making its breakout (which isn't confirmed yet by the most liquid major - EURUSD - in a major break of trend) and carry interest is on the rise. USDJPY would say the dollar was just set for a short burst but now is caving to resistance.

What's the consensus?

I was triggered on a long USDCHF position and am now watching for a market entry on a confirmed upside USDJPY break of 108.50 (may move that over to limit orders).

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I was away from my trading station for the afternoon and came back to some pretty huge moves. I got tired of USDCHF and closed my long position this morning as got fed up with the tight range and thought I would re long at 1.0292. how wrong I was!!!! Well I missed the upmove for now, caught 20 pips scalped on the way back down.
USDJPY my short order at 107.95 was filled, SL 108.35. I'll hold this for now to see where we are tomorrow.

GL all

USDJPY could be looking at a break higher. The break above the 200 day SMAA has led to a sustain bullish rally for the pair but the technical level has served as support which may limit the downside risk to a long trade. Risk appetite is definitely on the rise with oil easing and the recent Merrill Lynch news of a stock offering has yet again spurred hope that the worst of the credit markets has passed. Even our technical analyst Jamie Saettele has a bullish strategy for the pair in his short term outlook, with a target above 108. The 110.24 76.4% Fibo level of the 1114.75 i 95.69 decline, may be a little ambitious, but I think a test of 109 could be feasible.

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Closed my short at 107.75 for 20 pips.
I too think this is short term bullish now with a close above 108 yesterday.
My more preferable entry posint would be around 107.40.

But we are testing a upward trend line on the hour chart from 16 jul, if this doesn't hold we should see the next level congestion area of 107.30-40.

GL

B

That is a big retracement of yesterday - 88.6% Fibo. I don't feel it will go much lower than 76.4% which is 107.53. What do you all think?

I'm sticking with a long USD bias, and today it's against the JPY. Daily MACD and RSI look increasingly bullish, and we've seen USD/JPY sustain the break above the 200 SMA. While there's heavy resistance above in the 108.20 - 108.50 zone, I think this news that the Federal Reserve is going to extend the amount of time that investment banks will be able to borrow from its discount window until January 30, 2009 (originally scheduled to end this September) will be quite bullish for the US equity markets and thus, USD/JPY. While this sort of news only indicates that the stress in the credit markets has persisted beyond the Fed's expectations, and perhaps they anticipate that things will get worse, equities and the JPY crosses have responded positively in the past to the initial reports of government and central bank intervention.

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The responses to gov't/fed intervention are getting anemic here and Asia is reading the Fed move negatively as confirmation that the problem is worsening and unresolvable.

I am seeing a rising wedge with divergence on the tops on MACD and Stochs (longer term 40,3,3) (8 hour chart), which is bearish. The determination of the short selling is impressing me more than these violent spikes up. Spikes like those should break resistance decisively -- especially when new highs are neared, but they are only able to barrel through a little further topside the last three tries and then are knocked down. Supply of USD is being dumped from Asia and they have all the USD any carry trader could want to buy. I suspect they are saying "sold to you" with a bow and smile.

107.70 is the key support -- last low to test the support line.

But who knows what the news coming tomorrow will bring. I am out until then (perhaps till Monday).