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07-30-2008, 08:53 PM
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yes Terri
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
I'm sticking with a long USD bias, and today it's against the JPY. Daily MACD and RSI look increasingly bullish, and we've seen USD/JPY sustain the break above the 200 SMA. While there's heavy resistance above in the 108.20 - 108.50 zone,
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A slight variation to Terri's observational powers - I can see an ending diagonal completing today Thurs at 108.60. In the chart, note that price is sitting ON the breakout line and was well supported yesterday by the wedge TL and a price/time Gann line that you can see. Though we may revisit the wedge TL, the final move should be upwards, completing today. The sharp fallback is likely 106.60 which is the start of my wedge. Shoulders OFTEN contain wedge patterns. Buy around 108 today for a 60-pip profit.
Last edited by terton; 07-30-2008 at 09:07 PM..
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07-31-2008, 11:21 AM
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Interesting to note after that big dollar drop this morning that USDJPY was held back by a confluence of support.
Now, with spot running back up towards the key resistance level (108.50), it seems that the market wants to reset the potential for an upside breakout - perhaps on tomorrow's NFPs.
If USDJPY sees a similar rebound after a disappointment in tomorrow's labor data, I may just take a long position at the market (regardless of the event risk in the FOMC decision) as such consistent buying pressure would like reflect the underlying sentiment in the market.
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07-31-2008, 11:25 AM
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Given the technical structure of USDJPY, I still like the pair for an upside breakout. However, Friday's event risk leaves me a little uneasy since NFPs are so wildly unpredictable. Is anyone willing to or planning on trading that news?
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07-31-2008, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Given the technical structure of USDJPY, I still like the pair for an upside breakout. However, Friday's event risk leaves me a little uneasy since NFPs are so wildly unpredictable. Is anyone willing to or planning on trading that news?
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It is very tempting Terri to short USDJPY at 108.50 SL 108.80 (for any spikes) as I think NFP's will have to surprise to the upside ALOT to continue the dollar rally at the mo. First in a while dollar has come into NFP's strong, so a little downside in the figures may just produce a large dollar sell off.
my thoughts, what do you think?
B |
07-31-2008, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pubber
It is very tempting Terri to short USDJPY at 108.50 SL 108.80 (for any spikes) as I think NFP's will have to surprise to the upside ALOT to continue the dollar rally at the mo. First in a while dollar has come into NFP's strong, so a little downside in the figures may just produce a large dollar sell off.
my thoughts, what do you think?
B
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Good point pubber; but what about the dollar's reaction to the disappointing news today. While the dollar did sell off, it came right back. This seems to suggest the dollar is responding more readily to bullish data than bearish data (why the dollar couldn't stand down after the GDP shortfall). I would think even a modest surprise to the NFPs could give the dollar a boost - but will we get enough of a surprise to produce a major breakout.... |
07-31-2008, 04:33 PM
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Technical Trader
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Given the technical structure of USDJPY, I still like the pair for an upside breakout. However, Friday's event risk leaves me a little uneasy since NFPs are so wildly unpredictable. Is anyone willing to or planning on trading that news?
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once in a month it comes......... cannot miss it..... what do u think most likely outcome...........
GL.....
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...
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07-31-2008, 11:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pubber
It is very tempting Terri to short USDJPY at 108.50 SL 108.80 (for any spikes) as I think NFP's will have to surprise to the upside ALOT to continue the dollar rally at the mo. First in a while dollar has come into NFP's strong, so a little downside in the figures may just produce a large dollar sell off.
my thoughts, what do you think?
B
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How could dollar rally as if there is no end insight? I don’t think gold price coming down in global market. |
08-01-2008, 05:20 AM
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USD/JPY
Hi Everyone,
I am setting shorts at 109.11 and if met just wait for next two weeks to easily see 105 as it will correspond with the DJIA 12000 in fibbo terms so its the best trade if price reach to that level and there is good possibility of this happening today within 1 hours of NFP results later today. Good Luck and lets make some real money tonight like last night!!!!
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08-01-2008, 09:00 AM
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I'm more doubtful than optimistic about NFPs given the employment numbers we've been seeing lately, but they surprise at times. I shall trade after the fact, though I do have short orders in place for either an extreme spike or a drop through 107.
Will be exciting -- USD/JPY is coming to a big decision time with all of this frustration on both sides of the trade.
Edit: Hah, hah -- I am really awake this morning, the move was so small, I didn't realize the news was out -- CST time was 7:30 instead of 8:30 ... Doesn't really look so good for the bulls -- stopped ahead of 108. Hmm.
Last edited by Firewalker; 08-01-2008 at 09:09 AM..
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08-01-2008, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewalker
I'm more doubtful than optimistic about NFPs given the employment numbers we've been seeing lately, but they surprise at times. I shall trade after the fact, though I do have short orders in place for either an extreme spike or a drop through 107.
Will be exciting -- USD/JPY is coming to a big decision time with all of this frustration on both sides of the trade.
Edit: Hah, hah -- I am really awake this morning, the move was so small, I didn't realize the news was out -- CST time was 7:30 instead of 8:30 ... Doesn't really look so good for the bulls -- stopped ahead of 108. Hmm.
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It's interesting to see how NFPs haven't really been a reliable market-mover in recent months, which I think has more to do with the fact that they don't really shift interest rate expectations anymore. That said, I don't think it would be wise to ignore the indicator, but I don't know that I would count on a it as a key gauge of dollar direction.
I'm still waiting for an opportunity to buy USD/JPY, but I would prefer to wait for the pair to drop closer to 106.50/65.
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08-01-2008, 10:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
It's interesting to see how NFPs haven't really been a reliable market-mover in recent months, which I think has more to do with the fact that they don't really shift interest rate expectations anymore. That said, I don't think it would be wise to ignore the indicator, but I don't know that I would count on a it as a key gauge of dollar direction.
I'm still waiting for an opportunity to buy USD/JPY, but I would prefer to wait for the pair to drop closer to 106.50/65.
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Terri --
My understanding of the underlying fundamentals at work (not necessarily those the market perceives) is that USD will devalue greatly by next year -- a long term target, of course. In the meantime, range trading will continue as those who do not want to be caught holding long on a top will short rallies and those for whom it is unthinkable for the USD to devalue more than it has continue to buy drops. For traders this just means, be very careful not to get so excited about breakouts and stop yourself out repeatedly. Fundementals drive the charts not vice versa.
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08-02-2008, 11:07 PM
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Its over
Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
A slight variation to Terri's observational powers - I can see an ending diagonal completing today Thurs at 108.60...
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In fact, my prediction was curtailed - the pair could not rise above 108.40, confirming that we are really in a downtrend. Time is up. We have the top of this move.
Daily momentum turned flat to negative on Friday. Here are my calculations for 10556, 10370 and 10100.
A break of 10730 confirms a lower level target of 10556, the 23.6% ret level of the entire move from March 17.
The next likely level is 103.70, which is the 38.2%. At that point, we will have to wait and see, because a larger flat is possibly ending there, provided there are only three waves a-b-c down. BUT I WOULD NOT BET ON IT!
A larger cycle correction, even a c-wave down from 108.40, will likely tackle the 61.8% level which is 101.xx.
Going back to the short term, reaction days fall on Thursday 7th, Friday 8th and Wednesday 13th. The last one is likely to be a low reversal and at at least 103.70.
Monday should see a failure around 107.90 and a decline. Sunday night and Monday will therefore have good levels to SELL SHORT at high risk (RSI 14 daily is still at 55). 
Last edited by terton; 08-02-2008 at 11:31 PM..
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08-03-2008, 04:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
In fact, my prediction was curtailed - the pair could not rise above 108.40, confirming that we are really in a downtrend. Time is up. We have the top of this move.
Daily momentum turned flat to negative on Friday. Here are my calculations for 10556, 10370 and 10100.
A break of 10730 confirms a lower level target of 10556, the 23.6% ret level of the entire move from March 17.
The next likely level is 103.70, which is the 38.2%. At that point, we will have to wait and see, because a larger flat is possibly ending there, provided there are only three waves a-b-c down. BUT I WOULD NOT BET ON IT!
A larger cycle correction, even a c-wave down from 108.40, will likely tackle the 61.8% level which is 101.xx.
Going back to the short term, reaction days fall on Thursday 7th, Friday 8th and Wednesday 13th. The last one is likely to be a low reversal and at at least 103.70.
Monday should see a failure around 107.90 and a decline. Sunday night and Monday will therefore have good levels to SELL SHORT at high risk (RSI 14 daily is still at 55).
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We're somewhat on the same page. I'm looking for 106.67 as a target, from there I'll look and see if we're going to be returning up. You should like a wave counter..can you post a chart please?
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08-03-2008, 06:45 AM
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Short order waiting at 107.86, SL 108.15.
It has been rejected too many times now to make a break of 108.50, all indicators ae turning down.
Chart attached.
GL
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08-04-2008, 05:49 AM
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USD/JPY long position
The USD is maintaining position on relatively strong ground around 107.30-107.50. We have another short term uptrend which is likely to cool off as US data is coming out in less the two hours. I would predict for the next 12 hours the pair will trade between 107.70-108.10. It may find a bit of resistance on that point as it continues on an uptrend. We can see a MACD crossover signal turning bullish again and also RSI is still in uptrend
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