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08-04-2008, 07:22 AM
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Join Date: Aug 2008
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New Zealand
Hi guys, well this is my first post. From my reading some of you are the Real McCoy, very intelligent postings. I am in New Zealand, the other downunder. Do I have any company here. Are there any other Kiwis on the thread?
Thanks
Phoenix
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08-04-2008, 12:46 PM
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
In fact, my prediction was curtailed - the pair could not rise above 108.40, confirming that we are really in a downtrend. Time is up. We have the top of this move. |
Run out of time? Surely you aren't discounting tomorrow's FOMC rate decision. I can guarantee that an unexpected hike or commentary that suggests one will be found next month or in October will lead to an upside breakout.
In fact, if you look at the dollar across the board, it is moving on major technical levels (EURUSD dominate trendline, USDCHF 1.05, USDCAD 1.035), which increases the probabilities for a breakout dramatically.
I wouldn't say the top is in write now. The only high probability outcome in my book is that we will see some incredible volatility tomorrow. |
08-04-2008, 04:01 PM
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In 30 min chart clear 5 waves up are seen. If the 5th wave is equal 1st wave, it will end at 108.40. If 108.40 is really seen in Asia season, I will short with s/l at 108.55, target 107.85.
Last edited by y_2008; 08-04-2008 at 04:29 PM..
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08-04-2008, 08:08 PM
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Member
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Posts: 6
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[IMG]  [/IMG] |
08-04-2008, 10:01 PM
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GBPJPY
Will GBP bounce off the corner of the 38.2% Fib Resistance and the upward sloping support line (211.05)? If breaks through will the next stop be the 23.6% Fib (at 203.96)? It'll probably depend on what the Bank of England decides to say on Thursday.
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08-04-2008, 10:04 PM
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Image
I forgot to attach the image.
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08-05-2008, 04:30 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y_2008
In 30 min chart clear 5 waves up are seen. If the 5th wave is equal 1st wave, it will end at 108.40. If 108.40 is really seen in Asia season, I will short with s/l at 108.55, target 107.85.
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Really good call. Nice job analyzing the 5th wave length and to come up with perfect price projection on the downturn. I hope someone followed the advise. Looking forward the the next one. |
08-05-2008, 05:28 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 141
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NZ
Hi FX Phoenix, Welcome to DailyFX Forum and I am too from Auckland, NZ. Its a great forum to learn as there are some experts whose opinions if followed carefully, we all can make REAL money which I myself have done in last 3 months. Its a great tool and excellent platform to share knowledge, experience, stories and mysteries. Cheers Mate
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08-05-2008, 06:50 AM
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Today's Fed's statement may be disapointing the market and USD will be sold for a while, pushing this pair down a little furhter, and then bouncing back again.
Now it may be in wave C targeting 107.50. I didn't have a chance to get short around 108.40. I do not like to leave an order overnight with tight sl, I can not sleep well that way. I am in Canada.
(Becareful, I am new in fx)
Edit: B wave could be a triangle. If this is the case, then we are still in B wave. I am thinking to get short below 108.15 with 15 pips sl or just at 108.20.
Edit: I will not put any trade. It's too risky at this special day before Fed's statement.
Last edited by y_2008; 08-05-2008 at 09:28 AM..
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08-05-2008, 11:18 AM
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Look at the action in the US dollar across the majors. The greenback was able to surge against pound, broke new highs in USDCHF, marked a major trend break in EURUSD, left behind a seven-month range in USDCAD, and rallied 150 points against the Aussie dollar. Despite all this though, USDJPY is still caught in a 85-100 point range below notable resistance at 108.50.
IMO, this is a prominent reminded that the the recent dollar advance is only one of two factors behind USDJPY price action. The other issue here (and clearly the dominate one for the day) is the weakness in the carry trade. Other yen crosses and yield-heavy pairs have been weak across the board (what with the RBNZ and RBA moving towards cuts and the lower yield central banks promising hikes).
I think volatility off of today's Fed decision could produce a USDJPY breakout; but unless other carry pairs rebound, we aren't going to get much of a trend out of the move.
What do the rest of you think? Technically and fundamentally.
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08-05-2008, 11:18 AM
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Join Date: May 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y_2008
Today's Fed's statement may be disapointing the market and USD will be sold for a while, pushing this pair down a little furhter, and then bouncing back again.
Now it may be in wave C targeting 107.50. I didn't have a chance to get short around 108.40. I do not like to leave an order overnight with tight sl, I can not sleep well that way. I am in Canada.
(Becareful, I am new in fx)
Edit: B wave could be a triangle. If this is the case, then we are still in B wave. I am thinking to get short below 108.15 with 15 pips sl or just at 108.20.
Edit: I will not put any trade. It's too risky at this special day before Fed's statement.
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The Fed could pull a move similar to the BoE a few months back by being very hawkish in an attempt to maintain credibility with the markets that it does have its focus on price stability. Although oil has fallen, it is still up 20% on the year. |
08-05-2008, 08:37 PM
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Watch out there. It's trying to break through 108.58. A lot of traders are waiting to get long once it's above 108.65.
A nice hammer was printed on daily chart after NY season.
Last edited by y_2008; 08-05-2008 at 09:06 PM..
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08-06-2008, 01:08 PM
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My long orders triggered this morning at 108.65. Already took my first target at 109.60.
Don't know what I want to do with the second target. Perhaps a hard target far away and trail my stop and keep up with a trailing stop (though not to close as there is no doubt going to be retracements int his environment.
Watching EURJPY and GBPJPY closely to see if they can follow suit. I am still skeptical of the dollar's ability to drive a pair that is heavily influenced by its carry trade affiliations.
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08-06-2008, 03:35 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
My long orders triggered this morning at 108.65. Already took my first target at 109.60.
Don't know what I want to do with the second target. Perhaps a hard target far away and trail my stop and keep up with a trailing stop (though not to close as there is no doubt going to be retracements int his environment.
Watching EURJPY and GBPJPY closely to see if they can follow suit. I am still skeptical of the dollar's ability to drive a pair that is heavily influenced by its carry trade affiliations.
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Very perplexing price action. I am wondering how much higher will trigger a big profit taking sell-off. Not very often we go through the daily Bollingers like this without a sharp reversal before continuing. The whole thing seems like a huge feeding frenzy of sentiment out of Euro, etc. Seems like that could go the other direction just as quickly. Looks like a genuine break out though -- should stay above 108 for a while. Perhaps settle into a "higher range" if it holds.
I am thinking that we reached the pivot point at which the US recession is overshadowed by the recessions it has set off abroad. Now the real money piles back into the USD to escape them? I would think this will reversal down the road when our recession deepens and again looks much worse than abroad (or some financial collapse looks imminent again). Land mines aplenty.
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08-06-2008, 04:14 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2008
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Well congratulations to all those that played the breakout. I unfortunately didn't as was a bit skeptical when it was around 108.70 as not enough fast movement for me.
Looks like I was very wrong and also got burnt by 39 pips on EURJPY in the upsurge this afternoon.
I don't want to try and call a top before a quick retrace at the mo so staying out.
Am waiting for EURUSD to drop to 1.5390 to go long.
GL all
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