|
|
 |
|
08-11-2008, 02:37 PM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 806
|
|
|
Looks like if there's anytime for the dollar to pull back...it's now. The Dollar Index has run into falling trendline resistance which caps the late 2005 - 2007 highs. Is a break higher possible? Sure...but don't count on it happening today.
|
08-11-2008, 03:41 PM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Looks like if there's anytime for the dollar to pull back...it's now. The Dollar Index has run into falling trendline resistance which caps the late 2005 - 2007 highs. Is a break higher possible? Sure...but don't count on it happening today.
|
Looks like we are already pushing through that level right now. |
08-12-2008, 09:16 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,023
|
|
|
looks like we already pushed through it.
|
08-12-2008, 09:45 AM
|
|
Registered User
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
I have a lot more faith in USD/JPY upside than for EUR/JPY. In fact, the USD has been the only major to gain against the JPY over the past 5 days (see the attached Bloomberg chart). USD may be the strongest currency right now, but it looks like JPY is right up there in second place.
|
Hi Terri Belkas,
My i know how do u get to the chart? I tried to find it at bloomberg but cant figure it out.Hope anyone can help.
Thanks |
08-12-2008, 11:11 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by elson
Hi Terri Belkas,
My i know how do u get to the chart? I tried to find it at bloomberg but cant figure it out.Hope anyone can help.
Thanks
|
Hello elson,
This chart is from Bloomberg Professional Service and not their website. |
08-12-2008, 08:28 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
The following is 1 hr chart. Currently it is near the end of wave 3.
Edit: Wave v within wave 3 could end around 108.90.
Edit: Wave v of 3 ended at 108.40. Wave 4 is on its way. One more low which is wave 5.
(I try to learn EW counting)
Last edited by y_2008; 08-13-2008 at 01:33 AM..
|
08-13-2008, 06:58 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 11
|
|
|
USD/JPY Pullback
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Looks like if there's anytime for the dollar to pull back...it's now. The Dollar Index has run into falling trendline resistance which caps the late 2005 - 2007 highs. Is a break higher possible? Sure...but don't count on it happening today.
|
Hi Terri
Where do you think the pull back may goto. I would like to build longs from 107.25 to 106.5 is this realistic?? Any thoughts from others out there? |
08-13-2008, 07:04 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 11
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Terri Belkas
Looks like if there's anytime for the dollar to pull back...it's now. The Dollar Index has run into falling trendline resistance which caps the late 2005 - 2007 highs. Is a break higher possible? Sure...but don't count on it happening today.
|
Hi Terri, me again, I forgot to ask, is it o.k to run long positions without stops if while building longs at 107.25 to 106.50 or am I asking for trouble? |
08-13-2008, 08:39 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
It looks like wave 5 is on its way. A lot of traders are waiting to get long around 108.20. S/L can be 107.70
(Just my wild thoughts)
|
08-13-2008, 09:25 AM
|
 |
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 90
|
|
|
|
08-13-2008, 11:27 AM
|
 |
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 287
|
|
|
I am seeing a retrace in the USD/JPY as risk aversion builds from the JPM $1.5 billion write down announcement. A test of support at 107.04, the 50.0% Fibo of the 103.79-110.29 rally is clearly within range.
__________________
John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.
|
08-13-2008, 11:33 AM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aeron
Hi Terri, me again, I forgot to ask, is it o.k to run long positions without stops if while building longs at 107.25 to 106.50 or am I asking for trouble?
|
I'm not Terri, but I think I can answer this. You're always looking for trouble when you don't have a hard stop in place. It is just more complex to place stops for individual orders for a building position - but it is essential. I recommend creating a simple spreadsheet where you keep track of all of your trades. Then, keep track of all the components of a multi-lot trade so you know definitively where all the stops and targets are (and perhaps where you should trail stops if you do).
As for your previous question, most of the DailyFX analysts are following USDJPY today in the Analyst Picks on the website.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
|
08-13-2008, 12:33 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
Wave 4 is likely a triangle, still in progress. I may try to get short around 109.00 with a tight stop loss, targeting 108.25.
Edit: wave 4 could be still a ABC correction, as shown in the following chart. In this case it should end at around 109.25. So, if I enter short at around 109.00, my stop loss should be 109.45.
( I haven't put any real money yet)
Last edited by y_2008; 08-13-2008 at 12:49 PM..
|
08-13-2008, 01:28 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 184
|
|
|
short @ 109.26, s/l is very tight (109.41). confedence is low because it is impulsive now.
Stopped out. What is behind this move? I have no idea. Thanks god my stop was tight.
Last edited by y_2008; 08-13-2008 at 01:57 PM..
|
08-13-2008, 03:10 PM
|
|
Moderator
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,768
|
|
|
It was a move across all the yen pairs. I think it is linking up pretty nicely to the reversal in equities. Seems though its more linked to a necessary breather after such incredible momentum (in the other yen crosses, not USDJPY). With a broad yen selling in the crosses, you then meet a strong dollar and you have this considerable snap back.
The question now is whether we can get back above 110 or if we are destined to break that rising trend and back below former resistance at 108.60.
__________________
John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
|
|
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Rate This Thread |
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
