have faith and patience.

Hello everyone I feel this pair will eventually break below 89 and will eventually see 79 if not very close to it. My reason for feeling this way is because it will still take about 2 to 3 more quarter before we really start to see the money from the stimulus package get put to work. Remember its going to take time to dish out that money then select the right jobs to post that will employ enough people with work to last 1 1/2 to 2 years length in time. Being that it will take some time we also have to weight in the fact that even with those positions being filled and subtracting from our unemployment rate it is still going to take about 6 to eight months before people start to spend. I clearly understand that Japan is sliping in to a deep recession but I do feel it is the U.S. economic data that moves this pair and being were the first to fall then everyone falls after I feel our economic data going forward will cause more traders to abandon the dollar. I'm still trying to learn a lot more about Japans economic data so if anyone can help me or direct me to a site where I can understand more about there fundamentals I would really appreciate it.

Try CNBC for news from Japan.
Its under NEWS->ASia Pacific. Unlike the frontpage news which is always about the US troubles, news from other countries needs to be navigated to .

Hello Lang thank you..... Just wanted to let everyone know I placed a trade this morning I sold against USD/JPY with a take profit of 89.45 lets see how it goes. I'm expecting the us retail numbers to be disappointing and also next week is a whole lot of economic data that will weigh in on the dollar hopefully bringing it to 88 to mid 87. So wish me luck guys!

EURUSD breaking down. USDJPY is finding support on a recent break out. This is very bullish for the USDJPY IMO. The normal relationships between these two pairs and the SPY appear to be breaking down as I expected. The USDJPY looks very strong in the face of a very weak stock market.

Attached Images

	USDJPY.bmp (921.7 KB, 25 views)
	EURUSD.bmp (921.7 KB, 19 views)

I see a shorting opportunity coming up. 90.7

I had a long position on USD/JPY took some profit at 90.50 now I'm hoping USD/JPY declines, I have a short position open on the pair brought it at 90.00 with a take profit of 89.45. I think now would be a good time to get a short position open at 90.50-60 with a take profit at 90.30-20-10 one of those three.

Well, it seems EURUSD has held up in the end; and so has USDJPY.

What do you guys think, is it more pressure holding these markets back or pushing them through their respective support levels?

EURUSD will be the pair to watch with tomorrow's European GDP numbers. Get a exceedingly strong number and we may see the the flows to or from the dollar driving USDJPY.

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

I closed my short for a small profit. A new trend beginning, I am going to wait and see if I change my mind about the short term behavior of this pair. It looks like its gonna test 91.50 before the weekend and 92.50 next week.

A small "W" is forming on the 60min chart. I attribute this to recovery in Dow from -200 to baring negative. I think that traders are going into the weekend, bearing in mind of Japan GDP number next week.

Hi All,

I wrote this commentary earlier and thought it might be of interest....you can check out the link for more details and a full daily technical overview....all my best..Joel:

Dollar/Yen Price Action Looking Constructive (Daily Classical)

USD/JPY – Price action is looking constructive on Thursday with the market attempting to put in a bullish reversal day following 3 consecutive negative closes of lower highs and lower lows. However, setbacks have since stalled out by 89.70 (Wednesday's low), and a higher low above 88.60 (3Feb low) could now be in place at 89.70 ahead of a fresh upside extension. Look for the break back above 90.75 to strengthen short-term bullish outlook while a break back below 89.70 will negate. Strategy: BUY@ 90.80 FOR A 92.45 OBJECTIVE, STOP @89.60.

What do you guys think about the falling relationship between the YEn and the risk (sotcks). It's obvious something is going on as the YEn appreciated in the face of either a falling or rising stocks market.

I think its the really bad data that is coming out from Japan.

Thanks for the note. I am positioned for this.

I agree. Risk aversion can only matter for so long until eventually investors figure out that investing in a country with zero interest rates doesn't make much sense. After all you can get nearly 3% in U.S. or German Bonds. Why would you invest in Japan unless you have a home bias living in Asia.

Exports have ground to a halt in Japan. They have shut down nearly all of their auto manufacturring capacity because they are not exporting cars. Eventually that hurts as U.S. dollars are simply no longer flowing into Japan. Plus, despite the Obama stumbles, there is still a possibility that he could get something right which would boost the stock market.