i love the way yen trades maybe its my style of TA, i love candles and clouds.... and i tend to be a bottom picker in a rallying market , i am not so good a rally seller in a falling market yet but working on it.... i find i dont like the speed of the falling market every thing seems slower in the bull rally phase????

i am very risk averse i buy with tight sl and quickly move sl to entry if stopped out no more trading that pair for that session, wait 8 hours till next session....

once in i add to winners once the market is 40+points in my favour, mainly on pullbackls , i think that money management is more important then anything else... even direction...

Fundamental Catalyst – Traditionally, increased risk aversion and fears of global instability have favored currencies like the USD, Yen and Swissy. However, in the current market environment we have seen some strong evidence of a shifting out of some of the more traditional lower yielding/safe-haven currencies in favor of the USD only. Rapid deterioration within both the Japanese and Swiss economies along with implementation of active intervention policies (most recently the SNB) have managed to easily offset any lure that these currencies once offered with the USD thereby emerging as the clear standout safe-haven choice. While we do not discount additional cross related buying in the yen relative to some of the other major currencies, we feel with respect to Usd/Jpy, the risks continue to be to the upside in light of the current economic environment.

Techs – Usd/Jpy: Although the market has been trading with a heavier tone on Monday, the overall structure remains constructive with the pair in the process of undergoing some choppy consolidation ahead of the next move. While we see no compelling reason to establish longs at current levels by 98.70, we do see good risk/reward opportunities on dips to 98.00 today. The 98.00 handle coincides with a projected daily “ATR” (Average True Range) low and as such, we will look to buy on dips to the figure. This short-term strategy align with our medium-term bias which projects further upside over the coming days back to the 104.00 major double bottom objective off of the 87.15 multi-year lows. Strategy: BUY @98.00 FOR A 100.45 OBJECTIVE, STOP @96.80. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back above 98.50. If trade triggers and 98.50 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm ET) on Monday. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Monday.

All my best,

Joel

It looks to me like the correction will reach the 3/29 lows in all JPY crosses and perhaps try for the 3/12 lows in some, like EURJPY (which has broken that low), and CHFJPY & NZDJPY which have tested it. If this is the case, the strong crosses like USDJPY and GBPJPY still have a ways to go ... Wouldn't recommend selling the crosses that hit 3/29 lows at this point if they bounce.

I can't quite understand the bullishness. USD/JPY peaks occurred in summer 2007 and summer 2008 - banking crisis peaks. Do we really think the banking crisis is over? Today BAC and IBM beat eps expectations then Oracle and Pepsico (could be vertical re-integration) are out shopping - potentially bullish news for the SM, which being mood driven decides to give in. A weekend web report dubiously leaking the results of stress tests painting a grim picture was perhaps behind the turnaround. USD/JPY follows suit. Is the investment community becoming a little tense about stress tests, which are due to be published the same week as another 600,000+ start looking for jobs? Surely we are now just resuming the long-term USD/JPY down trend. We didn't quite make 103, 101 was a reasonable enough bear rally.

You may be right about 101.50 be a top for a while, however, don't forget about Japanese money trying to escape what they know to be a domestic investment climate that will not improve until things improve in the US. USDJPY is not just about what US money thinks.

I don't think the banking crisis is over. That won't stop USDJPY from topping out later this year. I sat and watched USDJPY break 103, 105, 108 all through 2008 in disbelief. It is more than just the US markets.

I have noticed that many long term TA pundits are seeing a good risk reward trade for shorting on bounces with outs that are moving gradually lower. Most cite the longer down-trend and not just the trend from the top in the summer of 07. It is possibly fear of the Fed printing press that is driving the market. Volker has drawn attention to this recently and Obama hit the headlines with spending cuts yesterday - the juxta-position of these two headlines and up-coming stress test results set off alarm bells for me. I guess it boils down to whether you believe Bernanke's strategy will succeed, whether he can withdraw the stimulus as easily as he has introduced it.

The market has to have something to worry about, otherwise how would we climb the proverbial wall of worry. Soon you to will be converted to a USDJPY buall along with the other worrry worts. Do you think conditions are better in Japan then the U.S? The USDJPY had gotten irrationally low. This is what happens at market bottoms. The list of new 52 week lows in the stock market has thinned dramatically. Emerging markets have had a huge rally. And many sectors like the OIH have made very long sideways bases. Strength is building. The market is repairing itself. And the economy in Japan stinks.

Oh, please. Whisper bearish sweet nothings in my ear. This makes me feel more confident in my position.

So what if the US is running the printing presses. It is still going to take a while for us to get up to debt levels in Japan of 200% of GDP. Haven't you looked at this or are you only looking at one side of the equation?

"back on the block"
Hello people I am back on the block.......now lets make money!!!!
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Warning follow @ own risk...I dont use stop loss I hedge

Good points.

The cross hairs remain on the US because it has produced the quickest and most aggressive response to the financial crisis of its major counterparts. At the same time, they were first put there because the US was the epicenter for the crisis. It is still the position that if the US catches a cold the world sneezes; but if the much of the problems are still emanating from the US, the dollar will suffer for it while other economies have alternatives for trade partners.

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

That is an interesting idea John, and one that I have considered. This is a timing issue. China has overtaken the U.S. as Japan's largest trading partner, so presumably Japan might benifit from China's economy which appears ot be sound. But will China's economy be enough to displace falling demand from the U.S. consumer which still has to delever? China's economy is growing fast but its size is dwarfed by the U.S. However Cina's economy is roughly the size of Japan. The question is what products does Japan export to China and will they benifit? I have no idea.

I am no expert on trade, so I have to rely more on sentiment and how the trade in the currency pair is acting. I do not think that Japan will be able to easily displace U.S. demand.

I see U.S. problems as more damaging to the EURUSD than the USDJPY. How do you see it?

The deleveraging of the U.S. and European economies will have ripples for many years IMO. I favor investing in emerging economy stocks, however emerging market currency investments are limited due to liquidity.

Let's face it. Much of the success in Europe and the U.S. is not do to the fact that we are smarter than other countries, it is due to the fact that we happen to be blessed with minerals, oil, and at are a latitude that is conducive to agriculture. Weather patterns may change, but latitude will not. America will still have the ability to grow food in abundance and export it. We do not have a hot climate that slows productivity. We do not have mosquito born illnesses.


Sometimes I wonder if traders totally dismiss the natural resources of the U.S. when they think the dollar is headed for collapse. What do you think?

Wonder no longer, I'm pretty sure they do.

Well, I've written before here on the forum that I see a radical re-organization of the world economy coming, but something that huge happens over the course of a decade at the least. The world has way too much industrial capacity that was built up to feed consumption financed by inflation and debt. I don't see how those levels of consumption can return to previous levels. Which means the industrialized world will have to decide who gets to scrap the excess industry.

This directly impacts Japan, since they're economy is broken at the moment and can't be fixed without finding a way out of the export trade trap. Maybe it'll look like what happened in the United States during the 1980s as they dismantle their unproductive industry and turn more to imports and investment flows to support their economy? I could see a more regional economy in East Asia with Japan as the financial and technical center.

And what of the United States? Its obvious (to me) that America will have to cut its imports and begin producing locally again if it wants to recover from this financial mess. That will also be a huge undertaking, given that it means pouring capital back into the domestic economy and banks locked up tight refusing to lend.

So I guess, what I see is this osmosis process that eliminates the massive imbalances of trade that exist today and the drying up of excess production. Importers begin producing again and exporters begin importing more and scaling back over built industries.

I'm not really sure how China can pull off the "miracle" investors seem to think can happen there. They have to maintain a high level of growth just to employ the masses of peasants who are streaming into the cities for work. I can't imagine that this collapse in trade can just be shrugged off in Beijing anymore than it can in Tokyo.

Notice how bad Jpy news stop making front page these days? Seems so quiet. News these days is "worry" about US financials, US jobs, US housing, but nothing about Jpn economy being worse and getting worse.

I see the market has no direction. Needs something to give it a push.. what would it be?

i am nor so sure about that....The FT lead yesterday with a front page article on the trade deficit ...and the market bought Yen on the back of it !!

stop at 97.50