Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 168

qed · #**2506** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New Investor

Does anyone have a view on rising long bond yield? The market is managing to confound the Fed presently. Today's uptick is encouraging on the back of a seemingly better payroll number (which looks worse when you take out census workers and revisions). Is it just the balance of too much supply or are bonds signalling inflation? They have a good past history of predicting inflation.

I had the view that yields would top near 3%. $5K later I didn't have that view anymore. When the government gets involved it is hard to understand all of the moving parts.

The American consumer still has way too much leverage. Just because the Fed is pumping money into the system doesn't mean that consumers will borrow and spend. So inflation seems unlikely IMO.

qed · #**2507** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rossco

Having traded virtually nothing for 2 weeks and watching USDJPY trading like it is wearing lead boots whilst every risk asset in the world is on fire.....I am wondering whether USD has become the worlds #1 funding currency and the Yen #2.

I can easily rationalise the Yen crosses to AUD etc but increasingly $/Y feels random. Everyone is aware of the fundamentals , outside of BoJ intervention or a failed JGB auction I can't seem to make much of a case for the pair at 105 - 110 area anymore

Any thoughts ?

I am getting hammered on my long USDJPY position and I too do not understand what is happening. The USD is getting hammered against most currencies at the moment. I was reading today that the U.S. is no longer Brazil's largest trading partner. Now it is China. And China overtook the U.S. as Japan's number one trading parnter some time ago. Supposedly trade with China is picking up in Europe and Japan. Could the demand from China be real? Is this the reason for strength in the JPY? Any idea?

I still think there is a lot of overcapacity in machinery and such, however I think CAT claimed that sales in China were robust, so who knows. Maybe eventually the market will look at JPY fundamentals again.

pdean123 · #**2508** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

I am getting hammered on my long USDJPY position and I too do not understand what is happening. The USD is getting hammered against most currencies at the moment. I was reading today that the U.S. is no longer Brazil's largest trading partner. Now it is China. And China overtook the U.S. as Japan's number one trading parnter some time ago. Supposedly trade with China is picking up in Europe and Japan. Could the demand from China be real? Is this the reason for strength in the JPY? Any idea?

I still think there is a lot of overcapacity in machinery and such, however I think CAT claimed that sales in China were robust, so who knows. Maybe eventually the market will look at JPY fundamentals again.

USDJPY is reacting to an RSI Negative Reversal on the hourly chart. RSI is also in bearish range. No signal for an upswing yet.

marketwavez2 · #**2509** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 09:16 PM

Usd/Yen

Chart result : .............

Long @ 9930 ......... ( Stopline 9840 ) ......... Loss -90 pips

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Dodgers1 · #**2510** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 09:26 PM

if it breaks look out

qed · #**2511** (**permalink**) 05-11-2009, 09:47 PM

I have noticed that if the stock market is up the USDJPY is down. If the stock market is down the USDJPY is down. If the sun rises the USDJPY is down. If the sun sets the USDJPY is down. It must be due to the fact that I am long USDJPY.

lele_king · #**2512** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 12:05 AM

Here is my outlook on the usdjpy, i think the bias is short.

Lang · #**2513** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 03:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

I have noticed that if the stock market is up the USDJPY is down. If the stock market is down the USDJPY is down. If the sun rises the USDJPY is down. If the sun sets the USDJPY is down. It must be due to the fact that I am long USDJPY.

Am I hearing despair? Its just looking for a support point, then it will rally again. US employment needs to improve and the negative RSI bias needs to work itself out too.

New Investor · #**2514** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 04:21 AM

With US trade and budget figures coming up shortly. Maybe these excel charts could be of use to someone. The trade balance on the first chart is a rolling 6 month average of japan/us trade from the US census bureau. USDJPY is the overlay of course. Chart 2 is 10 yr bond differential (red) and LIBOR differencial (blue). Chart 3 is the US budget deficit 12 month rolling average. The period is 1986 to april 2009 - about 23 years. I wish I had more data but this was all I could find. (This is the first time I have posted an image - sorry if it does not work out)

qed · #**2515** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lang

Am I hearing despair? Its just looking for a support point, then it will rally again. US employment needs to improve and the negative RSI bias needs to work itself out too.

Yes, the despair of averaging down and having a big loss. At 96 I am going to have to exit the position to end the pain.

Lang · #**2516** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 11:17 AM

I guess u r looking at the head and shoulders forming and thinking that it may test 93/4? Does look like it..

qed · #**2517** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lang

I guess u r looking at the head and shoulders forming and thinking that it may test 93/4? Does look like it..

I'm just watching my account go down in value. Chart patterns do not matter at this moment. I don't understand why the USDJPY is getting punished. I just made a bad trade and my account is making me acknowledge that fact.

I have a feeling there could be some fireworks at noon though. Some kind of oil report is coming out. Oil prices retreated from $60 so profit taking could become natural at this point. Also, they are dumping all over the most liquid technology stocks. And financials are weak. I don't even know why, but I have gotten very long the USD against the EUR and CHF. I just have a gut feeling. Ever have one of those?

qed · #**2518** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 12:39 PM

I shorted the EURUSD and went long the USDCHF, so I am heavily long the USD index more or less. The USDJPY has seems to have been correlated to the European currencies more or less. If the European currencies roll over do you guys think that the USDJPY will rally along with them falling? I am tempted to hold onto my USDJPY long position(This is called rationalization). I need help!

Uturn · #**2519** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 01:03 PM

30M Downtrend has 'closed out' [MAs]?
Attempting a Base at Trend Channel Support [Oversold]?
Pivot Point Support S2 @96.298?
It has fallen from Top of Trend Channel to Botton of Trend Channel?
May get a 'Dead Cat Bounce' [Strong] Reversal?
Possible Target 96.70 to 96.80
Cheers, Uturn

qed · #**2520** (**permalink**) 05-12-2009, 01:03 PM

...........for about 10 seconds