Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 175

coveredcalls · #**2611** (**permalink**) 06-03-2009, 09:15 PM

unfortunately no, I can't upload the chart to the forum. My charting software is ensign, if anybody uses ensign and is able to upload charts please tell me how.

coveredcalls · #**2612** (**permalink**) 06-03-2009, 09:44 PM

No I don't my charting software cant upload on the forum.

coveredcalls · #**2613** (**permalink**) 06-04-2009, 08:58 AM

Since the Dollar made its move I was anticipating, I move my stop at a 33 pip auto gain. Never want to turn a gain into a loss. If it pullbacks I will be stop out with a gain of 33 pips and than look for a re entry.

Thomas Long · #**2614** (**permalink**) 06-04-2009, 09:20 AM

HOW TO POST CHARTS:

1. Call up the chart on your computer screen.

2. Press the Print Screen key on your keyboard. (Upper right hand corner)

3. Open up a Paint Document.

4. On a Blank Page in Paint, Paste your image by hitting CTRL+V, or right-clicking your mouse and scrolling down to PASTE.

5. Use 'SAVE AS' and name your image. Save your document as a JPEG. Save this onto your DESKTOP, so you can find it easier.

6. On the DailyFX forum, when you post, scroll down to MANAGE ATTACHMENTS and hit this button.

7. In the small window that appears, hit BROWSE, and locate your image (remember it's on your desktop) and press open in the windows box after you find it. Now press UPLOAD.

8. Wait for the image to upload.

9. Then press close window.

10. Scroll back up to your post section.

11. Press Submit Reply.

12. You now have a chart for us to see what you are seeing.

Joel Kruger · #**2615** (**permalink**) 06-08-2009, 06:32 AM

What a difference a day makes. We had established a short trade on Friday with the market so heavily overbought intraday and testing some shorter-term trend-line resistance off of the 101.45 2009 highs. However, gains continued to extend into the afternoon, resulting in a parabolic rally that had closed above the trend-line. This was not the outcome we were looking for and as a result, exited the trade this morning on the pullback into the low 98.00’s for a small loss. We view the close above the trend-line on Friday as significant, with the move likely signaling additional upside over the coming weeks, back towards next key longer-term falling trend-line resistance just over 100.00. As such, we will now look for an opportunity to reverse and get long on a dip below 98.00 on Monday. We will use the 50-Day SMA as a point of entry. Strategy: BUY @97.60 FOR A 100.00 OBJECTIVE, STOP @96.40. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close (5pm ET) on Monday.

All my best,

Joel

John Kicklighter · #**2616** (**permalink**) 06-08-2009, 11:11 AM

I don't know if I should consider that head and shoulders formation that was developed between March and May as complete. Was the neckline a rising trendline or is it the horizontal zone around 94.

I guess it really doesn't matter if we break higher anyway.

I'm watching for a move above 99; but I won't consider getting in until 99.75 goes. Then a build through a move above 101.50.

John Kicklighter · #**2617** (**permalink**) 06-09-2009, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I don't know if I should consider that head and shoulders formation that was developed between March and May as complete. Was the neckline a rising trendline or is it the horizontal zone around 94.

I guess it really doesn't matter if we break higher anyway.

I'm watching for a move above 99; but I won't consider getting in until 99.75 goes. Then a build through a move above 101.50.

Wow, that collection of resistance ended up being more influential than I had thought. I guess it helps that the dollar has generally fallen apart over the past 24 hours.

This isn't a sentiment move in my opinion as the euro and pound are rallying as well (the yen is the safe haven in USDJPY and dollar in the other two pairs).

Kind of disappointed I didn't put a small short position around 98.65/85. Oh well. Looking at 97 as the next level for a potential reversal or reversal. Of course, the potential for a move from there will be much more limited considering we are in the middle of the past month's range.

tank · #**2618** (**permalink**) 06-09-2009, 10:04 PM

Seems like the USD JPY is more reactive to the other pairs?

One thing I noticed, if anyone is trading in the Asia session is that for some reason there's JPY strength early (au/nz session) then a sell off (jp sesson)??

John Kicklighter · #**2619** (**permalink**) 06-11-2009, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tank

Seems like the USD JPY is more reactive to the other pairs?

One thing I noticed, if anyone is trading in the Asia session is that for some reason there's JPY strength early (au/nz session) then a sell off (jp sesson)??

I wouldn't say it is more reactive to other pairs. It is influenced by the same risk factors as most other yen and dollar crosses. In the recent move, it was more the dollar than risk though.

Interesting conflict in the short-term and long-term USDJPY charts.

Long-term there is the big head&shoulders pattern that has a falling trend to hold back a serious test of the right shoulder. On the 60-minute chart, we have a rising trendline that looks as if it could be the line in the sand from this morning's test of support.

Don't know if we can get momentum so close to the weekend (and ahead of the G8 meeting); but there is potential there.

John Kicklighter · #**2620** (**permalink**) 06-12-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I was looking at the same pair.

The blue line is where I tried to short it last time. It was technically relevant at the time; but risk appetite would have its way.

Also, my confidence in this pair is waning as I have to keep adjusting my trenlines to fit swings. Not a good sign...

We have finally backed off that range high; but let's see if this is necessarily the catalyst for a bear wave.

brad_1199 · #**2621** (**permalink**) 06-12-2009, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I wouldn't say it is more reactive to other pairs. It is influenced by the same risk factors as most other yen and dollar crosses. In the recent move, it was more the dollar than risk though.

Interesting conflict in the short-term and long-term USDJPY charts.

Long-term there is the big head&shoulders pattern that has a falling trend to hold back a serious test of the right shoulder. On the 60-minute chart, we have a rising trendline that looks as if it could be the line in the sand from this morning's test of support.

Don't know if we can get momentum so close to the weekend (and ahead of the G8 meeting); but there is potential there.

Here's a weekly Chart of USDJPY..... I think we just might be heading lower from here

sel · #**2622** (**permalink**) 06-12-2009, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Here's a weekly Chart of USDJPY..... I think we just might be heading lower from here

hi brad,
thank you for your support.....
We hope, that we can get lower als 97, but
may be is reasonable to set stop @99...?
have a nice weekend and many, many thanks

janiceenberg · #**2623** (**permalink**) 06-14-2009, 10:48 PM

Hey All, it's always nice to meet new people..Just wanted to introduce my self as new comer into the forum and for you all please feel free to ad me to your buddy list

John Kicklighter · #**2624** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

We have finally backed off that range high; but let's see if this is necessarily the catalyst for a bear wave.

Good stuff. Finally seeing some momentum in the reversal. Let's see how far we can extend it. Little concerned about support in the 86 pivot developing into a reversal point under the possibility that we could have expended all the bearish momentum this morning.

If we don't get a break soon or the market starts to turn, I will take profit.

John Kicklighter · #**2625** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Here's a weekly Chart of USDJPY..... I think we just might be heading lower from here

Whether it's a bullish or bearish break, I think we will get a definitive answer soon (next 48 hours?). USDJPY has worked itself into a terminal wedge and support is coming up faster than resistance is falling.

I'm short from 98.30, but I will be ready to cut out if we move above 98.55/85. Either way, a break below 97.50 or above 98.75 could instigate a new trend. How long such a trend lasts is a completely different quandry however considering we have a shoulder line at 99.75 and a neckline down at 94.

Which way do you guys think we will go?