Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 176 - DailyFX Forex Forum

Xiao · #**2626** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Whether it's a bullish or bearish break, I think we will get a definitive answer soon (next 48 hours?). USDJPY has worked itself into a terminal wedge and support is coming up faster than resistance is falling.

I'm short from 98.30, but I will be ready to cut out if we move above 98.55/85. Either way, a break below 97.50 or above 98.75 could instigate a new trend. How long such a trend lasts is a completely different quandry however considering we have a shoulder line at 99.75 and a neckline down at 94.

Which way do you guys think we will go?

could you tell me what is the timing that USD/JPY got very High volume Of Trading?

sel · #**2627** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 01:36 PM

Hallo Mr.Kickligther,
what means here "Which way do you guys think we will go?"
From time to time, women also have an opinion.....
We are still see today 97,60 and it will be brouken south direction...
The losses on the international stock markets will continue this week....
Brad, thanks for your Chats in the forum. With your EW counts you have really strengthened us mentally
Mr. Kickligther: Thank you and the entire team of DailyFx for a perfect explanation of the economic relationships and economic linkages with the impact of currencies during the last days on the web pages!!
Never change the winning team!!
I am "unhappily" now in the Lesson 4 of Technical Trading Strategies, but good thing needs a time?!
Good luck with "scoop"
Nelli

John Kicklighter · #**2628** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiao

could you tell me what is the timing that USD/JPY got very High volume Of Trading?

I did a report on this a little while ago for Investopedia (link). Check out the Figure 3. The green line is USDJPY.

I simply took a long-term average of the hourly ranges for a 24 hour day going back 10 years. I could update it; but it probably wouldn't alter the results much.

John Kicklighter · #**2629** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sel

Hallo Mr.Kickligther,
what means here "Which way do you guys think we will go?"

Nelli

No offense meant. It is just an expression usually used to include men and women.

sel · #**2630** (**permalink**) 06-15-2009, 04:01 PM

Dear Mister Kickligther
I also did not mean evil.
Eventually, a little relaxation for us to have occurred.
I just red through the lesson 4 of Currency Forecasts Q2, 2008 and I'm just speechless. Your team of analysts at DailyFX're is simply the best.
Special Thanks for Mr. Saettele for Chart USD / JPY. We are now has been confirmed in our counting..
Our business are just USD / JPY or EUR / JPY and it is very difficult in german area to find for this kind of currencies such a great forum.
I know that my English is not so good, hope you still understand what I mean.
Sincerely
Nelli

sel · #**2631** (**permalink**) 06-16-2009, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Whether it's a bullish or bearish break, I think we will get a definitive answer soon (next 48 hours?). USDJPY has worked itself into a terminal wedge and support is coming up faster than resistance is falling.

I'm short from 98.30, but I will be ready to cut out if we move above 98.55/85. Either way, a break below 97.50 or above 98.75 could instigate a new trend. How long such a trend lasts is a completely different quandry however considering we have a shoulder line at 99.75 and a neckline down at 94.

Which way do you guys think we will go?

Hi Mr. Kicklighter,
in attachment first our opinion for development in overview and we consider like Mr. Saettele, thanks for his long term curves we did not have and now is clear, therefore we believe in a long term down too and in his wave 5 there is much potential for the next time/decades now and wow !!!
We are preparing next a shorter term view in detail.
Thanks so much for support!
Clearness/Decisions will only come even if waves are completed, before there are only variations/speculations possible, sorry, but you get, and that is very interesting in elliott waves, relevant exspectations.
So we wish you a nice wish to catch it well !

A concret Question and the Question is:
wave 3 or 5 on 101,50 !?
i think i have seen stopping wave 5 in a running zik-zak/double top at 101,50 and therefor i think, that the long impulse wave up to 101,50 stopped and ended.Therefore next must come a minimum correction as wave a-b-c and then up, ore more, an impulse wave down, for getting lower.
The decision comes next. but the signs are showing down, we believe.
greatings

sel · #**2632** (**permalink**) 06-16-2009, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Whether it's a bullish or bearish break, I think we will get a definitive answer soon (next 48 hours?). USDJPY has worked itself into a terminal wedge and support is coming up faster than resistance is falling.

I'm short from 98.30, but I will be ready to cut out if we move above 98.55/85. Either way, a break below 97.50 or above 98.75 could instigate a new trend. How long such a trend lasts is a completely different quandry however considering we have a shoulder line at 99.75 and a neckline down at 94.

Which way do you guys think we will go?

Quote:

Originally Posted by skyblue

Support looks good today, resistance is holding...

Hi Skyblue,

what do you meen? which support -> long or short?

janusinho · #**2633** (**permalink**) 06-16-2009, 09:19 PM

20 pip profit on a long from 96.246 to 96.446, now just aud/jpy and eur/usd to fall, good luck with the trades guys

Joel Kruger · #**2634** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 05:13 AM

Usd/Jpy: There are simply no attractive trade set-ups on Wednesday and as usual, we will stand on the sidelines until something really compelling presents itself. Yesterday we attempted to buy the pair at 96.35, but subsequently exited the position for a small loss in Asia after showing no follow through. Today, we will once again look to take a shot, but only in the unlikely event that the market collapses to test psychological barriers at 95.00. The 95.00 level also coincides with our favorite retracement level in the form of the 78.6% fib retrace. This is the 78.6% fib retrace off of the latest major 93.85-98.90 move. Our in-house proprietary model still shows room for additional Usd/Jpy weakness, and as such we are quite content on waiting to see any existing longs flushed out before once again looking to enter a long position. Strategy: BUY @95.00 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE, STOP @93.75. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close (5pm ET) on Wednesday.

All my best,

Joel

bob92588 · #**2635** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 07:58 AM

thanks for all the info

John Kicklighter · #**2636** (**permalink**) 06-17-2009, 09:38 AM

Depending on what your tolerance to risk is, check out CADJPY. It has been a very momentous 550-plus point decline; and it would be no surprise to see a break in such a trend. If we indeed get a stalled decline, it will fit nicely within this long-term trendchannel.

On the other hand, if it goes for an immediate break; it will likely immediately loose its bearings for some time as such an extended trend will be tempered, especially without fundamental support through growth forecasts (not impressive for Japan) or a wave of risk aversion (which we haven't seen to the degree that we would expect such a severe decline).

John Kicklighter · #**2637** (**permalink**) 06-18-2009, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Depending on what your tolerance to risk is, check out CADJPY. It has been a very momentous 550-plus point decline; and it would be no surprise to see a break in such a trend. If we indeed get a stalled decline, it will fit nicely within this long-term trendchannel.

On the other hand, if it goes for an immediate break; it will likely immediately loose its bearings for some time as such an extended trend will be tempered, especially without fundamental support through growth forecasts (not impressive for Japan) or a wave of risk aversion (which we haven't seen to the degree that we would expect such a severe decline).

Already hit my first target on this reversal. Trailed my stop up and we'll see where we go.

Also looking to take profit on a small NZDJPY long position I took yesterday at 60.15. That was a well-behaved reversal; but a breakout is going to have to come sometime soon here.

sel · #**2638** (**permalink**) 06-18-2009, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

The USDJPY is looking somewhat top-heavy at the moment, with the pair's inability to clear 119.80 leaving short term risks seemingly to the downside. This in and of itself is not compelling evidence for a retrace, but looking at bond yields reveals that the US 10-year vs. 10-year JGB yield spread has shrunken by 4 basis points overnight. This type of price action in bonds typically coincides with a drop in the USDJPY, which has yet to materialize.

Dear Mr. Rodriguez,

thank's you and all the team of DailyFX for a excellent support!!!
In the moment, as i red "$USDJPY within 9 pips from the 200 day SMA at 96.49", my heart was just before the halt!!
Today I modified my strategy:
first position had now stop los @ 96,80 and take profit @ 95,50 (this position is already running since April 2009 with the profit in May and with a further extension till 07/31/2009). The second position is associated with a higher start value, and has still made a profit.

I hope, that everything will be have a happy end!
I have much to learn about the trading, I'm just not a profi
And than a so great message:
At 200-day SMA of 96.35. Absent a noteworthy break above, I ermain bearish on broader downward momentum. Trendline at 95.50.
Should I already make a reservation for a ticket to NY?
Yours sincerely
Nelli
Question: I am looking im the forums for the methods: How is to calculate a stop-loss and the support.

cmellon · #**2639** (**permalink**) 06-19-2009, 02:52 AM

Medium Term trend for USD JPY looks down to me. Linked by the arrow is the previous two cycles compared to the current cycle. MTD 7 low should be due in mid July.

IMO good opportunity to short USD YEN now, Stop Loss above MTD 6 high at 98.85.

John Kicklighter · #**2640** (**permalink**) 06-19-2009, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Depending on what your tolerance to risk is, check out CADJPY. It has been a very momentous 550-plus point decline; and it would be no surprise to see a break in such a trend. If we indeed get a stalled decline, it will fit nicely within this long-term trendchannel.

On the other hand, if it goes for an immediate break; it will likely immediately loose its bearings for some time as such an extended trend will be tempered, especially without fundamental support through growth forecasts (not impressive for Japan) or a wave of risk aversion (which we haven't seen to the degree that we would expect such a severe decline).

The channel has held up once again. Not much momentum on the reversal; but that is a condition of the broader market; and not this pair specifically. I am in from 83.95 and have already taken profit on the first half of the trade. Letting the second half do what it will as my stop has been moved up.