Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 177

John Kicklighter · #**2641** (**permalink**) 06-19-2009, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Medium Term trend for USD JPY looks down to me. Linked by the arrow is the previous two cycles compared to the current cycle. MTD 7 low should be due in mid July.

IMO good opportunity to short USD YEN now, Stop Loss above MTD 6 high at 98.85.

Hey cmellon,

I can see your forecasts; but what time frame are you looking at for this position? How long do you think it will take USDJPY to drop below 95.5 and then 94?

I'm keeping with short-term swings until we are through either 99 or 94.

cmellon · #**2642** (**permalink**) 06-19-2009, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Hey cmellon,

I can see your forecasts; but what time frame are you looking at for this position? How long do you think it will take USDJPY to drop below 95.5 and then 94?

I'm keeping with short-term swings until we are through either 99 or 94.

I am looking at below 94 by mid July (the MTD 7 low).

yuan83 · #**2643** (**permalink**) 06-19-2009, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arco

Antonio

The Russian guy is Peter Tatarnikov. Forex Club Sentiment Index.

regards - arco

wow i am 2 years back from this thread also! so did anyone manage to figure out this FCSI (forex club sentiment index)?

Neurosinner · #**2644** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 04:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

The channel has held up once again. Not much momentum on the reversal; but that is a condition of the broader market; and not this pair specifically. I am in from 83.95 and have already taken profit on the first half of the trade. Letting the second half do what it will as my stop has been moved up.

Regards mr. Kicklighter,

what is the reason not to believe that CADJPY could reach again the top of the channel? Fundamentals (risk aversion showing head again) or something else?

BigWave · #**2645** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 05:06 AM

my target for JPY = 92...

cheers

Neurosinner · #**2646** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 06:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigWave

my target for JPY = 92...

cheers

127% extension, 91.92. mine too.

Neurosinner · #**2647** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neurosinner

127% extension, 91.92. mine too.

or maybe not, support at 83,67 and 83,5 broken. too bad, looked like a winner.

qed · #**2648** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 12:01 PM

Given the deflation and poor GDP growth in Japan I just don't understand why anyone would flock to the JPY even in times of fear. I think that element of the trade is gone. The EURUSD has formed a head and sholders top on the daily. If the USDJPY can find support here it may form an inverse head and shoulders. The USD is pushing higher. Commodity stocks are getting pounded. There doesn't seem to be much of a reason for the sell off other than some IMF growth forecast, which isnn't really a reason. The market has rallied beyond the fundamentals. The economies around the world are still weak.

The SPY is down 2.5% and the USDJPY is holding fairly firm being down only ..34%. I think the USDJPY is exhibiting strength and will move higher over the short term.

John Kicklighter · #**2649** (**permalink**) 06-22-2009, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neurosinner

Regards mr. Kicklighter,

what is the reason not to believe that CADJPY could reach again the top of the channel? Fundamentals (risk aversion showing head again) or something else?

Well, technically, the pair has broken down from its trend channel (my second lot was stopped out at breakeven). Fundamentally, risk often has its way with the yen crosses; and it certainly that way now. Take a look at AUDJPY. It could make its own break soon.

cmellon · #**2650** (**permalink**) 06-24-2009, 10:14 PM

Here's what I think is happening with USD YEN.
Delta ITD (Intermediate Term Delta) is lower time frame. Delta MTD (Medium Term Delta) is higher time frame

Xiao · #**2651** (**permalink**) 06-25-2009, 03:31 AM

2009 jun 24

Yen Falls against the USD on Economic Concerns
The Japanese currency fell sharply on Tuesday, falling against most of its major currency pairs, tumbling from creeping doubts about the sustainability of any economic recovery. The JPY fell 0.3% vs. the greenback to 95.54 Yen. The JPY also slipped against the EUR by over 250 pips to 134.61 Yen, as investors continued to cut bets on low-yielding assets, and sold-off the Yen against other major currencies.

Traders were also cautious ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday, and this week's record $104 billion sale of U.S. debt. This has meant that renewed concerns about the global economy have actually fed through more into a weaker Yen than a weaker Dollar, analysts said.

slickpippin · #**2652** (**permalink**) 06-25-2009, 02:28 PM

Hello everyone im a newbie to trading. I was just wondering if anyone had some input on one of my trades? i sold usd/jpy at 95.41 and was just going for a scalp of 10 pips but it went against me should i stay in or should i just take my lose?

Xiao · #**2653** (**permalink**) 06-25-2009, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slickpippin

Hello everyone im a newbie to trading. I was just wondering if anyone had some input on one of my trades? i sold usd/jpy at 95.41 and was just going for a scalp of 10 pips but it went against me should i stay in or should i just take my lose?

now It Is going Around 95.94......

hi pippn

So Bad Time You had sold that Position ppinp...

And If you Can Hold so It can Less your Loss..

In Hourly Chart are Going Great and It Will Soon make you also Great so if you Can... Hold so if your Account And Leverage can..

And You have to Fix Up your Stop Loss , And In This Currency You Also Had Around 120pips Loss Notional and Down Then it is stand Now it is Around 40 pips...

so Beware First To Make up Your Mind What Will Going to be Your Stop Loss...

It is Wonderful That you can See and Of 4 hourly Chart of USD/JPY...

Regards...

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No Worry, Give Tension take Observation...

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Name: no worry.gif
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y_2008 · #**2654** (**permalink**) 06-25-2009, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slickpippin

Hello everyone im a newbie to trading. I was just wondering if anyone had some input on one of my trades? i sold usd/jpy at 95.41 and was just going for a scalp of 10 pips but it went against me should i stay in or should i just take my lose?

I have been trading for two years and one more month and still learning with micro account. There are many professional advises all around Internet such as MM and RR and so on. No need for me to advise them to you again. The only thing I want to advise you and which is also what I am doing now is to trade with micro account where you can risk only $10 or $ 30 with stop loss of 100-200 pips in place or in mind.

For your current case with usd/jpy, this is a bad trade. I don't think it is a good thing for a beginner to scalp, it requires great technics. It is hard for others to advise you how to handle this trade.

Again, trade with micro account, learn and learn and learn.

slickpippin · #**2655** (**permalink**) 06-26-2009, 01:37 AM

Thanks so much for your help guys.