Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 179

asherewt · #**2671** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 07:32 AM

I've opened a long position at 95.15 ...

Quote:

Originally Posted by swifty

Fundys tell me to get out. Going up-not down. My advice: Follow Cmellon
:-)

Mike

ekfalcons59 · #**2672** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 12:58 PM

[quote=kengur28;304462]

Quote:

Originally Posted by asherewt

I've opened a long position at 95.15 ...[/QUOTE

I am also long from the same level...I think the equity will recover and push USD/JPY up along....

As I understand, the key event is wednesday, when Alcoa releases its report...until then, I think we'll go up....

What do you think, did we see a bottom in crude oil at $63,41 today?

Alcoa kinda pre-announced, bad results

asherewt · #**2673** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 05:57 PM

Just added few more long positions at 94.67, the previsou support kumo support level.

Things seems to be working fine for the time-being.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kengur28

I am also long from the same level...I think the equity will recover and push USD/JPY up along....

As I understand, the key event is wednesday, when Alcoa releases its report...until then, I think we'll go up....

What do you think, did we see a bottom in crude oil at $63,41 today?

swifty · #**2674** (**permalink**) 07-06-2009, 06:56 PM

Given, this is only a 15 minute chart, but what /prevents/gives cause to hesitation, that you technical traders do not recognize this as a reverse head and shoulders pattern? I will look for a movement up, but it clearly never happened as of time of this chart. I'm guessing the TF? Really weak Head and Shoulder Setup? If even at all? Thanks, --

Oh, and my Fundys are still bullish on USDJPY. TF 1 week.

Mike

Sofia.forex · #**2675** (**permalink**) 07-07-2009, 07:20 AM

Thanks a good recommendations swifty.... right now i see that since it had turned lower, accelerating on today's break below the bullish trendline since May (currently at 95.35) and on way toward 93.90 (May 22nd low) and even below ahead.

John Kicklighter · #**2676** (**permalink**) 07-07-2009, 12:50 PM

I come back from vacation and nothing has changed with this pair. The head-and-shoulders formation that has offered a potential pattern to play off of has waxed and waned for nearly a month now. You could argue it can still play out from here; but I'm more concerned with the follow through that would be possible.

So far, there has been a pull back in all things risk related; but the retracement has been slow and shallow. In the meantime, we have wasted many good technical triggers that could have developed volatility or catalyzed new trends. I just think investor sentiment is generally balanced and we won't see any major shifts until a big fundamental wind picks up (a double bottom recession, ECB talks about rate hikes, Eastern Europe defaults or devalues, US credit rating is downgraded, etc).

Right now, shortening my trading time frame and pulling my targets in closer.

John Kicklighter · #**2677** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 09:52 AM

USDJPY has seen a tentative, bearish break; and many of the other crosses are projecting the same. However, there is plenty of support below and there has been a clear lack of momentum or fundamental drive to really push us lower on a new trend. I'd like to see equities really dig into a bearish reversal before I jump in on the short band wagon. For now, keeping my targets relatively close or position size down on my more time consuming and distant objectives.

y_2008 · #**2678** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

USDJPY has seen a tentative, bearish break; and many of the other crosses are projecting the same. However, there is plenty of support below and there has been a clear lack of momentum or fundamental drive to really push us lower on a new trend. I'd like to see equities really dig into a bearish reversal before I jump in on the short band wagon. For now, keeping my targets relatively close or position size down on my more time consuming and distant objectives.

I have placed a very small long order just under 94.00 since yesterday on the same thoughts.

Breaking 94.00, if happened, will be short lived, I think.

cmellon · #**2679** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi Krismitt,

At the moment short 97 (from early June), Stop Loss 98.86.
Attached is Delta Chart in ITD time frame and MTD time frame for what could possibly happen.

I am waiting for confirmation on ITD 9 high, which may or may not have been reached at 97 yesterday.

I plan to take 100 pips profit for partial position, and then move the remaining position stop loss to 1 pip above ITD 9 high. Target is below 94.

Closing at 93.15 now... sayonara.

John Kicklighter · #**2680** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

USDJPY has seen a tentative, bearish break; and many of the other crosses are projecting the same. However, there is plenty of support below and there has been a clear lack of momentum or fundamental drive to really push us lower on a new trend. I'd like to see equities really dig into a bearish reversal before I jump in on the short band wagon. For now, keeping my targets relatively close or position size down on my more time consuming and distant objectives.

They are all moving with authority now. I still want to see this reflected elsewhere in other markets.

cmellon · #**2681** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 12:11 PM

We are near ITD 10 low and MTD 7 low now. Awaiting for reversal signal before going long.

Bongoman · #**2682** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 12:44 PM

Well what a opportunity to take a long on thye USD Yen

This a saber rattling that the Dollar will be replaced as the worlds currency

I see a snap back to at least 9300+ from the 9200 now

Good luck Rsi at 10 on the 1 hr chart

Bongo

cmellon · #**2683** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 01:00 PM

Well... looking at USD YEN ITD chart again, in the past two cycles, ITD 11 was due only a couple of trading days after ITD 10, then there's a relatively long trading days from ITD 11 to ITD 1.

This may mean that MTD 7 low will be due at ITD 1 low instead of being due at ITD 10 low as I first posted. And time frame wise, ITD 1 low will be due around end of July. In other words, assuming if the low today is ITD 10 low, further slide down below ITD 10 is likely after a quick and short lived 2-3 days rally from ITD 10 low to ITD 11 high.

cmellon · #**2684** (**permalink**) 07-08-2009, 08:09 PM

In anticipation of ITD 10 low, I enter long USD JPY now at 92.75 with Stop Loss below yesterday's low at 91.8.

Target is only conservative 94.75 (2x risk). Further downside is likely after completion of ITD 11 high.

stalla · #**2685** (**permalink**) 07-10-2009, 06:58 AM

The Dollar’s gained slightly on Wednesday, as the meeting of G8 leaders in Italy got under way. One bright spot for the Dollar was the departure of the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, to China and so a debate on the reserve status of the Dollar did not happen.

Germany however, seemed to take a swipe at the USD, saying the focus of recovery efforts should not be spending based but on the contrary, debt reduction.

Although the Dollar and Yen have found safe-haven support from the uncertainty in the global markets, it has been balanced by fears that the Dollar’s status as a reserve currency might be discussed at the summit. As a result, the Dollar stagnated then gave way for the Yen to become the safe-haven choice for Forex online investors.