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07-10-2009, 12:29 PM
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A narrow escape.
My long usd/jpy sl was 91.77, the lowest price today was 91.78 on MT4 of Gain Captial, just survived by 1 pip for now.
On easy-forex, the lowest one was 91.75.
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07-12-2009, 11:20 PM
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USD JPY Shorting?
As the falling of the Nikkei and Topix Indexes follow the decline of the Democratic Liberal Party in the Tokyo assembly, things look pretty bleak for Japan. However, as the economy of the US is even weaker, it seems likely that traders will stick with hoarding the JPY, a traditional safe haven. However, it is anyone's guess to how low the BOJ will let the yen fall before it cuts interest rates to drive it back up. The previous low was 87 back in December, but it's not likely that the BOJ will allow it fall to such levels again.
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07-13-2009, 03:27 AM
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I have shorted usd/jpy myself. Now waiting for it to fall
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07-13-2009, 10:21 AM
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With last week's break, the medium-term bias is bearish. Now we have a descending wedge on the 60-minute chart but equities took a bullish turn during the European session.
I'm waiting for a move below 91.75 or above 92.60.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-14-2009, 09:45 AM
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John,
whats your take on it now that its above 92.6?
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07-14-2009, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lang
John,
whats your take on it now that its above 92.6?
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It was good for a short-term rally; but the follow through has been capped by immediate resistance just above at 94 (a former range support level). Without momentum from the other yen crosses, a rally can just be tripped up by further resistance at 95 and then 97.
There seems to only be short-term opportunities. I'm only looking for reduced size, breakout trades for now.
What do you think?
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-15-2009, 01:13 PM
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Update USD YEN chart from July 8 to today.
It has potential to go up some more for another 100+ pips before reversing.
Once top (ITD 11) is reached, the low of 91.7 should be taken out on the way to ITD 1 low (and also MTD 7 low).
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07-15-2009, 04:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
Update USD YEN chart from July 8 to today.
It has potential to go up some more for another 100+ pips before reversing.
Once top (ITD 11) is reached, the low of 91.7 should be taken out on the way to ITD 1 low (and also MTD 7 low).
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I wonder can you see this pair getting to 97.20 again? It faces tough resistances but the way it bounced back thro that key key 93.50 level and stayed up has me wondering?! |
07-15-2009, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raulin
I wonder can you see this pair getting to 97.20 again? It faces tough resistances but the way it bounced back thro that key key 93.50 level and stayed up has me wondering?!
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Hi Raulin - under this delta count it shoudn`t breach ITD 9 top - 96.96
Patryk |
07-15-2009, 08:14 PM
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Chinese GDP numbers are due out at 22:00 GMT along with a slew of other indicators. Keep an eye out for it. It will certainly have its influences on the Japanese yen; but it could also revive a trend in broader risk sentiment.
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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com
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07-16-2009, 11:27 PM
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97.20
Hi Raulin,
While I agree with you about the bouncing fact, I doubt if it would be able to reach 97.20 area.
As I see it, we've a very strong Resistance coming up at 95.13 which was previously the Support area.
Cheers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by raulin
I wonder can you see this pair getting to 97.20 again? It faces tough resistances but the way it bounced back thro that key key 93.50 level and stayed up has me wondering?!
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07-16-2009, 11:30 PM
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USDJPY Daily Analysis
With USDJPY, we've witnessed a nice Rally over the last couple of days which started from the Bottom of Strong Support Area (relatively a large area starting 91.75 to 92.40 or so), a very nice Bullish Candle was generated on 15th July with a sting Body signaling for a trend shift over a short period of time for this particular pair. From 12th till 15th, we saw Bulls showing strong commitment and maintaining their interest to push prices higher.
However, there is a very strong Resistance Area just above the current price and once again this is a relatively large area between 94.60 to 95.13, this was previously the Support Area for USD which later on turned into the Resistance Area after the market depreciated lower. We should see a lot of struggle for USD in this price area or even well before that.
Despite the today's pullback, there are chances that we should see market trading in the above mentioned Resistance Area and trade well near to the 95.13 before we start unfolding our next downtrend for USDJPY pair.
Strategy: Bullish for short term but overall Negative Sentiment as we're trading well below the Kumo Cloud
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07-17-2009, 03:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
Update USD YEN chart from July 8 to today.
It has potential to go up some more for another 100+ pips before reversing.
Once top (ITD 11) is reached, the low of 91.7 should be taken out on the way to ITD 1 low (and also MTD 7 low).
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Looks like this pair may have run out of time to make a new high in ITD 11. If so, it's poised to take out 91.7 in coming weeks. |
07-17-2009, 02:16 PM
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cmellon
so did u take a position on usdjpy?
btw by any chance do u trade on indian stocks in some form. i find it so difficult to apply some tech anal concepts there. i am always wrong
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07-17-2009, 11:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upadrasta
so did u take a position on usdjpy?
btw by any chance do u trade on indian stocks in some form. i find it so difficult to apply some tech anal concepts there. i am always wrong
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I will take a short position when USD JPY closes below 93.3. If it makes a new high in next couple of days, then I will change the strategy.
I don't trade Indian stocks. May I know what types of trader you are? Are you a daytrader who enters and exits at the same day, or are you willing to sit with your position for several days/weeks/months?
The technical concept I use is usually for trading a longer term position. In general, the shorter your time frame, the more difficult it is to trade. But some people are good at short term trade / scalp, but it's just not my cup of tea. |
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