Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 210

Sean Hyman · #**3136** (**permalink**) 10-13-2009, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanramp

Sean Hyman ! How you doin ?

I went LONG Chf/Jpy @ 89.3 and 88.75 levels.Still I am holding these positions.It's Trading in 87.5.It's came from 85.35.Shall I wait for 89-90 levels or I have to exit from here....Please let me know your strategy...

Already we have discussed here and you have mentioned the strong support @ 85.90 on that period.

Thanks again and look forward your advice.

While I can't tell you what you should do...I can point out that there are two major points of resistance coming up on CHF/JPY's daily chart.

sanramp · #**3137** (**permalink**) 10-14-2009, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

While I can't tell you what you should do...I can point out that there are two major points of resistance coming up on CHF/JPY's daily chart.

Thank you so much Hyman.Great analysis.
I hope the second resistance would come and exit from these levels.

Thanks again.

Sean Hyman · #**3138** (**permalink**) 10-14-2009, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sanramp

Thank you so much Hyman.Great analysis.
I hope the second resistance would come and exit from these levels.

Thanks again.

sanramp, you're welcome. Glad to have helped.

brad_1199 · #**3139** (**permalink**) 10-14-2009, 10:48 PM

USDJPY has sure been taking it's time progressing to a new yearly low and as time wears down the decline is looking over extended... I'm very iffy about this pair right now and in my opinion it could go up or down from here... Long term Elliott Wave Structure tells us that price must form a new yearly low below 79.80 at some point, but the path that price wiLL ultimately follow to get there is yet to be determined...

Price could pull back to the 100.00 area before an eventual break down through 79.80 or it may continue to drop straight down to a new yearly low below 79.80 ... Long term the bearish implications in this market are stiLL very clear.. But for bears coming into the market right now with prices down around current levels, traders may want to re-think if the short side is still worth a shot, especially with the daily chart severely stretched into the down side already with niL pull back thus far...

I am stiLL short USDJPY from 98.25 in size and looking to exit at the slightest signs of reversal from prior lows at 87.00 ... Although ultimately I was looking to take my short positions to 80.00 ... One can never be cautious enough in this game...

Speculation on the USDJPY Monthly Chart ---->

Joes · #**3140** (**permalink**) 10-14-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

USDJPY has sure been taking it's time progressing to a new yearly low and as time wears down the decline is looking over extended... I'm very iffy about this pair right now and in my opinion it could go up or down from here... Long term Elliott Wave Structure tells us that price must form a new yearly low below 79.80 at some point, but the path that price wiLL ultimately follow to get there is yet to be determined...

Price could pull back to the 100.00 area before an eventual break down through 79.80 or it may continue to drop straight down to a new yearly low below 79.80 ... Long term the bearish implications in this market are stiLL very clear.. But for bears coming into the market right now with prices down around current levels, traders may want to re-think if the short side is still worth a shot, especially with the daily chart severely stretched into the down side already with niL pull back thus far...

I am stiLL short USDJPY from 98.25 in size and looking to exit at the slightest signs of reversal from prior lows at 87.00 ... Although ultimately I was looking to take my short positions to 80.00 ... One can never be cautious enough in this game...

Speculation on the USDJPY Monthly Chart ---->

Thanks Brad

brad_1199 · #**3141** (**permalink**) 10-14-2009, 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joes

Thanks Brad

No Problem Joe

Tigger · #**3142** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:14 AM

Dang, 6 hour cross for the up. She gave quite well on the way down, so will try the long, small position.

Sean Hyman · #**3143** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tigger

Dang, 6 hour cross for the up. She gave quite well on the way down, so will try the long, small position.

Tigger, I think we'll get this short term pop that Brad alludes to on his chart above.

qed · #**3144** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asherewt

background, Yes and No

I've an IT Background and that perhaps makes few things easier for me to get started with. I've actually been doing research on few high-frequency auto trading applications (not those stupid cheap 99$ forex bots

) and decided to write my own Forex Auto Trading Software. Perhaps thats where I started looking at these crazy things.

I'm quite far from that stage where I've this software with me but perhaps an EA doing what I'm doing manually could be the first stage I guess. And I'm working quite hard on it.

Basic idea if I could explain is to get rid of Lagging Indicators (MA, RSI, MACD and so on) and try looking into the Future ... if you know what I mean

Good talking to you BTW, we must stay in touch.

I have heard that many indicators lag. What would you consider a forward indicator, if such a thing exists?

Sean Hyman · #**3145** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qed

I have heard that many indicators lag. What would you consider a forward indicator, if such a thing exists?

All indicators lag, no matter what someone will promote on their site. Every indicator has to have the price print on the chart first, then it can go into the formulations to form the indicator.

So there is no leading indicator. Sometimes the MACD can diverge and show things that MAY happen in the future (trend change).

Also, chart patterns like the Head & Shoulders and Symmetrical triangle patterns give you a "heads up" ahead of time of a potential break coming.

Also, keep in mind that just because an indicator lags doesn't mean that you can't make money from it. If that were true, none of us would profit from them.

Also, if you want to enhance your odds...take only entry signals that are in line with the daily chart's trend direction.

Also, of the uptrends out there...buy only the strongest fundamentally. For instance, AUD is the strongest of all of the currencies in the G-8 economically. They are the first to add jobs, first to raise interest rates, etc. So it only makes sense to look for buy signals within the uptrends on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, etc.

Hope this helps.

qed · #**3146** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 12:09 PM

All good advice.

It seems like most of this stock market rally in the developed world has been due to the government paying consumers to consume. Cash for clunkers has expired. The home owner tax credit has effectively expired also. These programs benefited Japan IMO because they export autos to the U.S. Could that program have given an artificial pop to the Yen? Me thinks so. What will likely happen to the JPY as the U.S. stops buying cars again?

Japan's Top Exports & Imports: Most Popular Products Traded Between Japan & America | Suite101.com

Uber FX nUblet7 · #**3147** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Tigger, I think we'll get this short term pop that Brad alludes to on his chart above.

Just curios, as i can't see the actual time on that chart. When time exactly is your four hour candle synchronized with. I tried to read it but my eyes are bad and it is really fine print? I assumed that was around the time of your post. so tenish?

Sean Hyman · #**3148** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uber FX nUblet7

Just curios, as i can't see the actual time on that chart. When time exactly is your four hour candle synchronized with. I tried to read it but my eyes are bad and it is really fine print? I assumed that was around the time of your post. so tenish?

I have no idea. I do a gazillion posts a day and don't remember.

However, here's an updated chart at 2:26pm EST.

Uber FX nUblet7 · #**3149** (**permalink**) 10-15-2009, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Tigger, I think we'll get this short term pop that Brad alludes to on his chart above.

I think that is the candle you were talking about. The time is well past, so im going up from here thx.

sanramp · #**3150** (**permalink**) 10-16-2009, 02:07 AM

Sean - I exited from the two long positions @ 88.80.Now it's trading above 89.50.Even though I am very happy :--) to exited these positions with minimal loss.

Thanks for your analysis Hyman.