Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 39

Antonio Sousa · #**571** (**permalink**) 10-04-2007, 10:50 AM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 13.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 28.8% higher than yesterday and 69.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.7% stronger than yesterday and 26.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Antonio Sousa · #**572** (**permalink**) 10-04-2007, 06:40 PM

USDJPY - 56% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.28). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 10.1%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

FXpert · #**573** (**permalink**) 10-04-2007, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Anyone else in now or contemplating event-driven trades?

If NFP comes out strong tomorrow the dollar will get back everything it lost in September. The Eurodollar's return to mean this week has been impressive. The pair is only now only 0.5% above its adjusted quarterly average. Factor in the Dollaryen broke above its adjusted quarterly average today, and traders have a compelling case to be long dollars.

If NFP comes out weak though, I have no trade. I don't feel comfortable using any currency to go short dollars, because, the way I see it, with the exception of the JPY, every other major is now trending against the dollar and I'll get a terrible price. I'll just have to sit on my hands and watch.

Either way, its shaping up to be a boring October for me. Either my indicator has to catch up, or the market has to retrace a bit, or both. Given October's reputation historically, I think I might be lucky to have such a problem.

John Kicklighter · #**574** (**permalink**) 10-05-2007, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXpert

If NFP comes out strong tomorrow the dollar will get back everything it lost in September. The Eurodollar's return to mean this week has been impressive. The pair is only now only 0.5% above its adjusted quarterly average. Factor in the Dollaryen broke above its adjusted quarterly average today, and traders have a compelling case to be long dollars.

If NFP comes out weak though, I have no trade. I don't feel comfortable using any currency to go short dollars, because, the way I see it, with the exception of the JPY, every other major is now trending against the dollar and I'll get a terrible price. I'll just have to sit on my hands and watch.

Either way, its shaping up to be a boring October for me. Either my indicator has to catch up, or the market has to retrace a bit, or both. Given October's reputation historically, I think I might be lucky to have such a problem.

I agree with your incite on the majors. Many of the other majors have come off their dollar-lows; so trying to get in long dollars for most of them would be messing around with pumped up prices. USDJPY certainly has quite a ways to go in the dollar's favor if things start happening on the calendar and we slip through 117.00.

I am contemplating whether I will even trade USDJPY on the NFP event risk. My feeling is that the employment report could be as heavy handed with the equities market; so we could see a good reaction from the yen crosses on risk appetite/aversion. So I am thinking about putting in an order for a possible USDJPY upside break and covering my basis with an order to short CADJPY should the NFPs be really bad (though I'll need to watch the Canadian jobs number as well).

In a side note, AUDUSD could also be a cheap place to buy dollars considering it is just below its 18-year high.

John Kicklighter · #**575** (**permalink**) 10-05-2007, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I am contemplating whether I will even trade USDJPY on the NFP event risk. My feeling is that the employment report could be as heavy handed with the equities market; so we could see a good reaction from the yen crosses on risk appetite/aversion. So I am thinking about putting in an order for a possible USDJPY upside break and covering my basis with an order to short CADJPY should the NFPs be really bad (though I'll need to watch the Canadian jobs number as well).

Clearly, the CADJPY short is no longer a realistic trade. Even if a risk unwinding was to ensue on a weak NFPs; the pair is far too expensive at its current level. I'm replacing it with the much more appealing EURJPY trade. You can see a steady rising trendline underling it, which will act as my trigger line for any downside move.

Anyone playing the crosses for this event risk?

thecurrencydeal · #**576** (**permalink**) 10-05-2007, 10:02 AM

seems to be approaching the max a bit too early than I like though there is
steam left for today. Next week/s may be different story...

FXpert · #**577** (**permalink**) 10-05-2007, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

USDJPY certainly has quite a ways to go in the dollar's favor if things start happening on the calendar and we slip through 117.00.

I'm long at 116.93 with two day low stops to trail market closes. My indicator has no clear exit point, so I can't scale out. I'm using 5:1 leverage.

Antonio Sousa · #**578** (**permalink**) 10-05-2007, 01:33 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 5.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.3% higher than yesterday and 57.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

hussin naiji · #**579** (**permalink**) 10-06-2007, 05:19 AM

hi all i said (my post no:565)usd/yen is correction 4 wave .yen have diffficult with this peak(117.20).someone is that tell to me ,why yen must weak against usd now?thanks 4 your cooperation and have a nice time bi bi

John Kicklighter · #**580** (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 05:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXpert

I'm long at 116.93 with two day low stops to trail market closes. My indicator has no clear exit point, so I can't scale out. I'm using 5:1 leverage.

Trailing stops on variable session lows is a good trade management strategy. However, I would be careful in using this if we don't see volatility in this recent move through 117. I used a similar method for my recent GBPJPY breakout trade and its volatility and weak follow through in the upside break lead a big pullback to knock me out of the trade prematurely.

That being said. The technicals on this pair are looking good. What's more, with the entire market already learning on the dollar negatives, there is strong potential that a dollar rebound will be the more volatile move from this pair.

We may have to wait until Tuesday or beyond to get some good price action in this pair though. Japan is on holiday for Health and Sports Day and there is nothing on the US calendar of any import.

FXpert · #**581** (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Trailing stops on variable session lows is a good trade management strategy. However, I would be careful in using this if we don't see volatility in this recent move through 117.

That being said. The technicals on this pair are looking good. What's more, with the entire market already learning on the dollar negatives, there is strong potential that a dollar rebound will be the more volatile move from this pair.

Honestly, I hope to see no vol in this pair as I'm only long spot at this point. I hope to see an orderly move upwards.

As far as the two day low method, I only use it when the pair is trading at a second std. deviation. Otherwise I'd close half the position at the 2nd std dev and move trail the two day low.

Antonio Sousa · #**582** (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 02:34 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.24 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 25.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 61.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 15.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**583** (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXpert

Honestly, I hope to see no vol in this pair as I'm only long spot at this point. I hope to see an orderly move upwards.

The USDJPY has shown a fairly negative relationship with implied vols, and I think a further uptrend would, by necessity, be an "orderly" one. The downtrend in short-term volatilities certainly bodes well for the USDJPY, poorly for the JPY.

Antonio Sousa · #**584** (**permalink**) 10-08-2007, 06:34 PM

55% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.24). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDJPY (short positions are up by 25.1%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Antonio Sousa · #**585** (**permalink**) 10-09-2007, 02:43 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.30 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 23.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 59.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% stronger than yesterday and 16.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.