The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.2% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.6% stronger than yesterday and 17.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

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On a similar note, Randolph Donney of Thompson's IFR says the following:

I disagree. Their working together means their combined capital and interests will be aligned to genuinely improve liquidity conditions. If individual companies tried to set up their own funds to loosen the slow moving, short-term credit market, they would more than likely just be offering liquidity to themselves (which is obviously nothing). Few major institutions would trust any of their contemporaries enough to believe in their financial security to fund these new deals and they wouldn't want to give them the fees anyways. At least this superconduit fund is a standalone fund with a number of banks involved and it is backed by the treasury. Therefore, if this fund is flailing, the likelihood that Paulson would step in (compared to a single fund) is much higher.

I'm hearing arguments that this is a different brand of bailout since Treasury aides have ushered the whole thing. However, I see it as a free-market action that is just slightly more organized, and better off for it. In a truly free market, no one would step up to put capital into this fund as they wouldn't want to take a possible hit; and they would all be waiting for someone else to put their money in and bail the market out.

Opinions?

That was a big drop in USDJPY. I was cleared out of my long position and I'm alright with it. The pair has floundered since breaching 117, which is obviously concerning for me since I was looking for some sort of momentum into the follow through.

I'll stand to the side on this pair, but I'm starting to also look into trades on the yen crosses - both long and short. We'll see if anything interesting happens there. For now, CADJPY and GBPJPY are looking pretty interesting.

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Readings on Yen Risk Reversals are very different than those of the EURUSD, with speculators and/or hedgers seemingly less scared/prepared for a sharp JPY rally. Thoughts?

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Initial Resistance - 117.80
Initial Support - 116.20
Target - 115.85

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.8% higher than yesterday and 2.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.6% stronger than yesterday and 16.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.54 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 24.4% higher than yesterday and 10.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 11.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 13.3% stronger than yesterday and 20.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

IMO, USDJPY has been the most tedious and painful pair to trade this week. So far, 117.00 has fallen momentum has faded in both directions and both the yen crosses and dollar-backed majors have offered nothing in the way of guidance.

However, I'm liking the stalling in price action around these prices 116.00/25 as it would conform with a possible rising wedge that has formed since the beginning of September. For support in this area, we also have the 20 and 50-day SMAs and the 38.2% fib of the 124.20-111.60 bear wave (which was also resistance for a brief stint). These are still questionable levels of support, so my stops would be kept short if I pull the trigger.

Looking out for event risk, we may get some fireworks from the G7 meeting (that is if equities fail us). Both the US dollar and yen will be of considerable interest with Europeans holding a distaste for both. We haven't really heard anything about the yen in the past - even through the European ministers have voiced their anger on the side; but I think Paulson's stance that a strong dollar is good since he took the job should make it easy for other to convince him to change his tune.

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This is our view on the yen

"With Chinese exports to Europe now exceeding those to the United States, European government and business officials are clearly concerned about the competitive disadvantages that are developing. As a result the EURJPY cross may be weighed down for the rest of the week as traders await the language from G-7.

The one countervailing force to this move could come from the equity markets. If DJIA makes another run for 14,000, the EURJPY may rally on carry trade flows. Nevertheless, Mr. Zhou comments introduced a new variable into the currency trading tonight which this week has been dominated mainly by risk aversion/risk appetite flows. If the G-7 does in fact highlight the undervaluation of the Asian currencies in its communiqué, the yen could strengthen against the dollar and the euro irrespective of the stock market moves."

Generally when these things begin they tend to have legs.

USDJPY positioning

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That wedge proved its technical worth, though the break happened before the event risk even came about (which seems to be happening more and more often nowadays). For those of you who were watching or had limits below the 10/17 low, I salute you. Unfortunately, I did not jump on this trade because I was concerned with the GPBUSD price action at the time instead. Time to get a second screen.

For those of you who are short, where do you see this going? Temporary bottoms at 114.80? 114.00? 111.60? or was this the marker for a clear shot to take out 110?

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hi all previous to this ,i said yen hasnot enough power for exit from line and must fall but until where 113 or 112 or 111 .at any rate yen can not go below 111.00 because Boj will interfere in market .if we see yen is falling therfore aud and nzd must fall.

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The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.69 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 33.7% higher than yesterday and 18.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 9.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 17.5% stronger than yesterday and 24.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Looks like the G7 had few words for the yen. I'm hearing a lot of commentary and speculation that this will encourage a rebound in the carry trade since you really don't have a fundamental foundation for yen gains through aggressive monetary policy or intervention.

But, I think there was little chance of this anyways - and the market probably knew it. The BoJ is clearly not finding the necessary support for further rate hikes, so they weren't on deck anyways. And as for the G7 meeting, we have seen from the past that such meetings are not a forum for actual policy changes (at least recently). Most of those in attendance have more than enough evidence that their attempts to jawbone the yen higher have not been successful, so further commentary would not be useful on the way out as well. And, even if they did convince Japanese officials to say something, what would they actually do?

And, from a technical perspective, we have clear evidence of a break of trend channels across many of the crosses, and USDJPY itself has clearly broken down. 111.60 seems to be the next major level to consider for support.