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10-22-2007, 10:07 AM
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Carry Trade
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10-22-2007, 02:04 PM
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USDJPY long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday on Profit Taking
The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.53 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 15.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 11.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 21.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
10-23-2007, 04:00 AM
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Looks like there was no reason to try to talk the yen down at the G7 meeting. It has took up considerable strength on its own. USDJPY has corrected substantially; and technically there isn't really much in the way of support gathered at its recent swing low, so I think another wave of risk selling could easily push us below 113 to test the 111.50 swing from the big move in August. The crosses have seen similar pull backs, but the heavy hitting currencies (EUR and GBP) seem to have lost more ground than the less liquid and even higher yield pairings (CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD). Interesting dynamic.
I have a conspiracy theory for this. Big traders in an effort to protect their carry trade short the most offending exchange rates (USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY) to such a level where the market is still unsure of a genuine change in trend for the yen; but at the same time, enough for policy officials to leave the yen off their radars.
Clearly not plausible in such a liquid market, but fun to speculate about nonetheless.
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10-23-2007, 02:19 PM
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The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% lower than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 9.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 20.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
Source: FXCM Dealing Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
10-24-2007, 12:54 PM
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rimnimbi
I would love to get my hands on some yuan. what are the chances do you think of fxcm offering this?
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10-24-2007, 02:58 PM
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63% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.68). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 30.6%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.
Source: FXCM Dealing Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
10-25-2007, 07:53 AM
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Just FYI for those of you looking at SSI figures.
Retail Traders tend to be RIGHT during periods of range trading which is what we are experiencing now.
Last edited by Antonio Sousa; 10-25-2007 at 01:26 PM..
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10-25-2007, 01:24 PM
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FXCM Traders Positioning
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10-26-2007, 09:09 AM
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JPY data continues to show that the country suffers from vestiges of deflation. Year on year core CPI in Japan has not been neutral much less positive in 2years! Hardly bodes well for nay yen bull arguing for BoJ hike anytime soon.
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10-26-2007, 12:52 PM
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Hey does anyone trade the yen crosses exclusively, there is so much up and down volatily in them, which is perfect for short term trading.
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10-26-2007, 01:38 PM
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62% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.67). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 25.6%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.
Source: FXCM Dealing Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
10-26-2007, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa
62% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.67). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 25.6%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.
Source: FXCM Dealing Desk
For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html
For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968. |
Antonio
Seems to me that all yen cross pairs seem to move in tandem, therefore if usd/jpy is up so are other jpy crosses and vise versa. What say you about this. |
10-29-2007, 07:42 AM
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Some impressive moves this morning in USDJPY. If you look at the high time frame charts, the pair's upside momentum looks minuscule. However, when you look at more granulated time frames, you can see that we had a pretty substantial break of a falling wedge - very clean.
This is pure speculation, but perhaps this upside move is the first sign that the dollar is finding a good bid. It was the situation a few weeks ago, that while the other majors were loosing ground, USDJPY was actually pulling higher on demand for risk. We saw the dollar's weakness overwhelm the bulwark carry over the past few weeks. Now we see USDJPY rebound on strong Asian markets, record crude (in today's dollars) and firmer gold and speculative metal prices.
I'm going to be keeping an eye on USDJPY and compare it to EURUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD. Let's see if this develops into anything.
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10-29-2007, 11:00 AM
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Strong Signal To Sell Usdjpy
61% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.54). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 8.7%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.
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10-29-2007, 11:00 AM
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Carry Trade Recovers
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