Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 45

djindyfx · #**661** (**permalink**) 11-07-2007, 06:38 AM

Been in since 115.06.. I'm hanging in there for the fall.

Terri Belkas · #**662** (**permalink**) 11-07-2007, 06:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djindyfx

Been in since 115.06.. I'm hanging in there for the fall.

Do you have a target in mind? Next layers of support loom at 112.58 and 112.00.

Antonio Sousa · #**663** (**permalink**) 11-07-2007, 12:59 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.97 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.72 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 18.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.8% lower than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 10.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

djindyfx · #**664** (**permalink**) 11-07-2007, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

Do you have a target in mind? Next layers of support loom at 112.58 and 112.00.

I"m holding on to under 100... I'm hoping the move Down will cover my loss of instrest.. However; If the US lowers rates some more.. It will not hurt as much.

With all of this Anti $ stuff going on.. I am holding on to this. JPY = Par to $..

David Rodriguez · #**665** (**permalink**) 11-07-2007, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djindyfx

I"m holding on to under 100... I'm hoping the move Down will cover my loss of instrest.. However; If the US lowers rates some more.. It will not hurt as much.

With all of this Anti $ stuff going on.. I am holding on to this. JPY = Par to $..

I would tend to agree with this sentiment. Market volatility is such that I don't expect any substantive recovery in risky assets (specifically US stock markets), and risks seem tied to the downside on the USDJPY. A break below 112.58 leaves the pair for a further drive towards 111.57.

Terri Belkas · #**666** (**permalink**) 11-08-2007, 02:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

I would tend to agree with this sentiment. Market volatility is such that I don't expect any substantive recovery in risky assets (specifically US stock markets), and risks seem tied to the downside on the USDJPY. A break below 112.58 leaves the pair for a further drive towards 111.57.

Not to just jump on the bandwagon, but I tend to agree with you guys as well. As far as the Dow goes, I really think it may have already topped out and we won't see 14,000+ for quite some time.

*watch it make the biggest recovery ever tomorrow

Antonio Sousa · #**667** (**permalink**) 11-08-2007, 01:51 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.78 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.72 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 13.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 18.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 9.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

djindyfx · #**668** (**permalink**) 11-08-2007, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

I would tend to agree with this sentiment. Market volatility is such that I don't expect any substantive recovery in risky assets (specifically US stock markets), and risks seem tied to the downside on the USDJPY. A break below 112.58 leaves the pair for a further drive towards 111.57.

OK David; It broke 112.58.. I count 1 more down day and then a slight correction.. Or;.. It could just drop like a rock like it did back in July

. Either Way... I did a pirmid and I'm 4 positions Short.. Starting at 115.09..
I"m still wondering what we are going to call this situation 5yrs from now. US Contagion?

More and more private Equity is going to pull out as the Jpy Pairs start selling out.. I"m looking for a reset and new runs of the Eur/JP as it breaks its stride with the Dow. Twins always get sepearate at some time in thier life... Look at US/JP pair.. It seperated its run up from the rest of the Pairs.

It is a Roller Coaster Ride down now!

John Kicklighter · #**669** (**permalink**) 11-09-2007, 12:04 PM

I'm tempted to say this is good confirmation for a medium to long-term down leg in USDJPY.

I'm looking for 110.25/00 next. From there, we can see a relatively technical free down move until 100 - where the BoJ would inevitably move in to protect the yen.

Any one have positions in this move? Anyone thinking about fading this sharp move?

Antonio Sousa · #**670** (**permalink**) 11-09-2007, 02:37 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.01 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.72 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% higher than yesterday and 21.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 22.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 12.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

JohnR · #**671** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I'm tempted to say this is good confirmation for a medium to long-term down leg in USDJPY.

I'm looking for 110.25/00 next. From there, we can see a relatively technical free down move until 100 - where the BoJ would inevitably move in to protect the yen.

Any one have positions in this move? Anyone thinking about fading this sharp move?

We are about to break 109, and it does look like clear sailing to at least 105, before we see significant resistance.

djindyfx · #**672** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 09:26 AM

Still holding on since 115.06.. Riding the Ride straight down.. 104 / 102 Next? Could This go even lower? I'm sure that 101.xx something is a solid bottom. Time will tell.

John Kicklighter · #**673** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 11:29 AM

Yeah, it's always cool to see how the trends in the dollar are squaring up to the yen-favored risk trends. This downtrend is certainly accelerating.

I'm thinking we are still in the medium-term downtrend; but we could very well see a short-term rebound. I'm targeting 119 as the next level of support that could have any kind of influence in this kind of downside momentum. I'm considering a short stop order at 118.70; but then I'd have to give up on all the yen crosses as I don't want to overleverage myself into the volatile currency.

Any advice? Should I keep it to USDJPY or should I participate in the more volatile crosses? Perhaps I should just spread the risk out in smaller sized positions.

Antonio Sousa · #**674** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 11:34 AM

Carry Trade Falls Sharply on Higher Risk Aversion

Antonio Sousa · #**675** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 01:15 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.89 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.10 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.9% lower than yesterday and 22.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 19.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.5% weaker than yesterday and 5.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...715337428.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.