Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 46

Dumb Money · #**676** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 03:07 PM

Ouch 500 pip loss in USD/JPY? Don't you read your own reports? DailyFx called 115 to 110. I'm thinking we will rebound for a bit maybe to 112 and then the bottom will fall out to 107-108 and eventually 100 by years end.

djindyfx · #**677** (**permalink**) 11-12-2007, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

I'm thinking we are still in the medium-term downtrend; but we could very well see a short-term rebound. I'm targeting 119 as the next level of support that could have any kind of influence in this kind of downside momentum. I'm considering a short stop order at 118.70; but then I'd have to give up on all the yen crosses as I don't want to overleverage myself into the volatile currency.

Any advice? Should I keep it to USDJPY or should I participate in the more volatile crosses? Perhaps I should just spread the risk out in smaller sized positions.

My Style is to spread a little bit around every where! I'm Short US/JP, GB/JP, EU/CF, GB/CF and several others.. I'm Long EU/NZ, EU/AD, GB/AU. It is a Pain managing so many positions but.. Not every currency trends at the same time or gives the same gains.. I spread out a little everywhere. When it is time to add positions.. My style tells me..

I"m Moving my stops and I'm riding the Coaster down!

hussin naiji · #**678** (**permalink**) 11-13-2007, 09:36 AM

hi all i think that we are arguing about an pair (usdyen)that alone main artery this country for continuation life is only exports. therefore strengthening yen against usd have decrease exports after.for example two or three month front boj(governor) said in the event that yen go under 110.00 we will control market .up chart show to us previously this worked .two pullback from my point of view is interference boj for control market .we must see that usdyen will go above 113.80-1140.00 .but treade on an pair (usdyen)that have interference by itself reserve bank is good?

Antonio Sousa · #**679** (**permalink**) 11-13-2007, 01:46 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.84 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.10 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 25.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.2% higher than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 8.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

John Kicklighter · #**680** (**permalink**) 11-14-2007, 11:19 AM

I'm waiting to see whether or not we can get a strong move in the Dow today or tomorrow. If we get another 300 point drop from the Dow or a 60 point slide in the Nasdaq Composite, I'm going to put in a pretty hefty stop short order below 109 and wait for the break.

However, if that doesn't happen, I'll just watch momentum and price action around 111.50/70. My think is that if volatility cools once again, USDJPY will slowly move back above resistance at 111.70 (38.2% fib of the 11/1-11/12 move and the exhaustion low on 8/17) in a steady move back to 114. Under those kinds of conditions, I may take a small position or just sit aside. I'd much rather see a sharp rebound in the Dow towards all-time highs with the Asian and European indexes put in for similar efforts (not the meager bounce we have seen since August). If we get this upside volatility and find capital plowing into risk, I'll try to play a standard position in a break above 111.70 (or wherever I can catch it).

Anyone else already positioned in USDJPY?

Dumb Money · #**681** (**permalink**) 11-14-2007, 11:42 AM

Im short at 111.72, you may be right with your analysis of this going the other way, but looking at the Dow chart looks like we are in a downtrend as we topped out at 14000 twice in the last four months.

davetheeagle · #**682** (**permalink**) 11-14-2007, 02:18 PM

I'm short at 109.67, doh! No reason, just a punt.

Antonio Sousa · #**683** (**permalink**) 11-14-2007, 06:01 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.79 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.10 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 23.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 14.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 8.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

John Kicklighter · #**684** (**permalink**) 11-15-2007, 01:28 PM

I'm still watching this pair. My theory of low volatility equaling a slow rise is pretty much blown by now. I should always go with the trusty, 'if volatility is low, probabilities are best for technicals to hold'.

Looking at the weekly chart, we can see where the risk truly lies - to the downside below 109. However, at the same time, if we close this week out around where we are at right now, we will have a considerable doji. Now that I'm looking for more candlestick formations for the candlestick thread, I have been looking back over historical formations like these, and dojis after large moves are pretty good predictors of turns. We'll have to see.

Event risk is light next week. I'm growing more and more convinced that we will get an upward break next week. However, that cliff to the downside is too foreboding and too easy to set a stop short entry order below; so I'll keep my bias to the side and put the trades where the money is.

Antonio Sousa · #**685** (**permalink**) 11-15-2007, 01:49 PM

The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.10 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 18.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.9% higher than yesterday and 7.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 9.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**686** (**permalink**) 11-15-2007, 03:17 PM

The Yen is the only major currency to gain in any big way against the dollar on the day. As long as market volatility continues, this will likely continue to be the case.

Dumb Money · #**687** (**permalink**) 11-15-2007, 04:29 PM

needless to say its been a great week for my pockets.

JohnR · #**688** (**permalink**) 11-16-2007, 09:02 AM

Looks like we have a little dollar rally coming off this Morningstar reversal

Dumb Money · #**689** (**permalink**) 11-16-2007, 01:14 PM

Yup, do you follow stochastics? Using the 4hr chart gives you good idea of when its overbought or oversold and last night the USD/JPN hit about 15% oversold, so I covered and made some big dollars. Going to take the day off today...looks like USD/JPN will be going up today...It's funny how the USD/JPN is trading point for point with the DOW. Traders are a weird bunch.

Antonio Sousa · #**690** (**permalink**) 11-16-2007, 02:01 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.50 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.10 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.2% lower than yesterday and 15.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 22.7% higher than yesterday and 4.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.