Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 47

JohnR · #**691** (**permalink**) 11-19-2007, 05:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dumb Money

Yup, do you follow stochastics? Using the 4hr chart gives you good idea of when its overbought or oversold and last night the USD/JPN hit about 15% oversold, so I covered and made some big dollars. Going to take the day off today...looks like USD/JPN will be going up today...It's funny how the USD/JPN is trading point for point with the DOW. Traders are a weird bunch.

I definitely look at stochastics, especially how they compare with the Bollinger Bands.

DailyFX Analyst · #**692** (**permalink**) 11-19-2007, 09:13 AM

Yen continues to be domated by carry trade flows, but 110 may be a point of value for importers as they hedge their book, so USDJPY may be slower in going lower even if risk aversion roars its ugly head.

Antonio Sousa · #**693** (**permalink**) 11-19-2007, 01:18 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.81 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.3% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 8.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 11.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**694** (**permalink**) 11-19-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.81 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.3% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.1% lower than yesterday and 8.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 11.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

We see a triple-whammy of a strongly positive SSI ratio, increasing long positions, and decreasing shorts--all of which point to further USDJPY downside. I think it's far more likely that we test 109.11 in the next 24 hours than 111.00.

John Kicklighter · #**695** (**permalink**) 11-20-2007, 11:09 AM

I'm surprised USDJPY didn't see more of a reaction in this rumor of an immenent Fed cut. EURUSD which is already near records surged; yet USDJPY, which has room to bounce around, did next to nothing. The falling trendline on the 60-minute chart is my trigger for a potential dollar rally should the Fed cut not come across. However, my target on a long will be limited to 50-60 points. I'm still sitting on that stop entry short below 119. Let's see if we have the same kind of Thanksgiving volatility that we had last year.

Dumb Money · #**696** (**permalink**) 11-20-2007, 12:30 PM

Im still looking for a trade. lol

Antonio Sousa · #**697** (**permalink**) 11-20-2007, 02:22 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.74 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 4.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**698** (**permalink**) 11-20-2007, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.74 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.2% lower than yesterday and 4.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.7% stronger than yesterday and 12.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

The SSI continues to give fairly clear warning that further USDJPY losses may be on the way. Long positions rose while short positions fell, and the ratio reached increasingly bearish territory.

John Kicklighter · #**699** (**permalink**) 11-20-2007, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

The SSI continues to give fairly clear warning that further USDJPY losses may be on the way. Long positions rose while short positions fell, and the ratio reached increasingly bearish territory.

Thanks david.

DailyFX Analyst · #**700** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Rodriguez

The SSI continues to give fairly clear warning that further USDJPY losses may be on the way. Long positions rose while short positions fell, and the ratio reached increasingly bearish territory.

That turned out to be pretty good signal. At 108.50 you have to wonder how much juice is left unless DJIA does another dive today. Traditionally stocks like to stage a Thanksgiving rally but that may not be the case today.

robgsxr · #**701** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dumb Money

Yup, do you follow stochastics? Using the 4hr chart gives you good idea of when its overbought or oversold and last night the USD/JPN hit about 15% oversold, so I covered and made some big dollars. Going to take the day off today...looks like USD/JPN will be going up today...It's funny how the USD/JPN is trading point for point with the DOW. Traders are a weird bunch.

Hi DM
If you have time would you be able to advise how you determine the % oversold using stochastics. I checked the 15th/16th Nov time frame on the 4 hour and couldn't see how to work this out.

If the forum moderator doesn't wish this I would be happy for you to email me, the moderator has my address or I am happy to post here.

I will check back later

best regards

Rob

Dumb Money · #**702** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 01:04 PM

Well if you look back now you wont see the oversold hitting 15% on Nov 16, it would be around 20% because its showing what ultimately happened within the 4hr time frame.

Keep in mind using the stochastic indicator SHOULD not be the only thing to use as all it really spits out is a mathematical ratio comparing the price now in comparison to some other time frame. This "other time frame" variable is very important and you should look through a few different time frames to see if you have it right. I personally look at the daily, 4hr, and 30 minute.

At this exact moment the 4hr for the USD/JPN is around 16% which singles to me we are nearing a bottom also take into account the DOW and NIKKEI have taking a beating over the last few days. Anyone catch the NIKKEI falling 400 points last night? Ouch. My guess is we should see a rebound in the USD/JPN for the rest of the week.

robgsxr · #**703** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dumb Money

Well if you look back now you wont see the oversold hitting 15% on Nov 16, it would be around 20% because its showing what ultimately happened within the 4hr time frame.

Keep in mind using the stochastic indicator SHOULD not be the only thing to use as all it really spits out is a mathematical ratio comparing the price now in comparison to some other time frame. This "other time frame" variable is very important and you should look through a few different time frames to see if you have it right. I personally look at the daily, 4hr, and 30 minute.

At this exact moment the 4hr for the USD/JPN is around 16% which singles to me we are nearing a bottom also take into account the DOW and NIKKEI have taking a beating over the last few days. Anyone catch the NIKKEI falling 400 points last night? Ouch. My guess is we should see a rebound in the USD/JPN for the rest of the week.

Thanks for your reply. I have begun to use different time frames to provide a clearer picture.
I however went to the 4 hour timeframe again to see how to more definitively state the oversold condition in percentage terms and I really cannot compute a 16% figure from the stochastic trace.
What numbers are you using to find this ratio?
Please bear with me.

Antonio Sousa · #**704** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 03:00 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.69 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 2.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.7% stronger than yesterday and 13.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

David Rodriguez · #**705** (**permalink**) 11-21-2007, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.69 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.6% higher than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 2.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.7% stronger than yesterday and 13.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

I hesitate to say so because the USDJPY is just so oversold at the moment, but the SSI clearly signals that further downside is likely through short term trade. Longs are increasing while shorts are pulling back. I would have expected that open interest would fall ahead of the holiday weekend, but it seems as though that's not the case through today's reading.