Discuss the USD/JPY with a DailyFX Analyst - Page 51

John Kicklighter · #**751** (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by robgsxr

Thanks John,
One further item. How is spot determined? How often is it recalculated?

Rob

Spot is the exchange rate right now and it is determined by the market. Just like anything else that is bought, sold, bartered or traded; a buyer will offer to pay a certain price in the exchange rate and a seller will offer to sell at a certain price. With enough buyers and sellers putting in what they think is fair value, we will eventually see overlap and a trade will execute. This is constant and instantaneous (whether the price feed you receive is such, though, is a different matter).

David Rodriguez · #**752** (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Spot is the exchange rate right now and it is determined by the market. Just like anything else that is bought, sold, bartered or traded; a buyer will offer to pay a certain price in the exchange rate and a seller will offer to sell at a certain price. With enough buyers and sellers putting in what they think is fair value, we will eventually see overlap and a trade will execute. This is constant and instantaneous (whether the price feed you receive is such, though, is a different matter).

To further expand on what John said, we usually mention the actual word "spot" to differentiate what we trade (cash forex markets) from the more traditional futures markets. Whereas futures are exchange-traded agreements to buy/sell a given currency at a given price and date, the "spot" market is where we instantly buy/sell a currency at the current rate.

Antonio Sousa · #**753** (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 05:08 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 8.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 19.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**754** (**permalink**) 12-05-2007, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 8.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 19.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

I like the long side on the USDJPY from a sentiment perspective. Though the ratio actually remains in net-long territory, it is well-below its typical levels and really underlines "crowd" bearishness on the pair. This is typically when we see further upward momentum.

Terri Belkas · #**755** (**permalink**) 12-06-2007, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

This is what I'm checking out in the near-term with USDJPY...I'll be curious to see if the pair can hold below 110.50, as a drop from there or current levels could see the formation of a head-and-shoulders pattern (different from the one you guys were discussing).

The noted potential head-and-shoulders pattern has obviously been negated on the test of 111. However, I'm not ready to accept that USDJPY gains will continue. The pair has run into trendline resistance at 111.15 and there's a fib level just above at 111.26. Until we see a push above these levels, I still think we could see the pair fall towards 109.

Interestingly enough, USDCAD has run into similar trendline resistance, though its a bit longer-term than the USDJPY trendline.

John Kicklighter · #**756** (**permalink**) 12-06-2007, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terri Belkas

The noted potential head-and-shoulders pattern has obviously been negated on the test of 111. However, I'm not ready to accept that USDJPY gains will continue. The pair has run into trendline resistance at 111.15 and there's a fib level just above at 111.26. Until we see a push above these levels, I still think we could see the pair fall towards 109.

Interestingly enough, USDCAD has run into similar trendline resistance, though its a bit longer-term than the USDJPY trendline.

Sticking to your guns, eh? I'm much more concerned about recent price action and have pretty much given up on any short-term USDJPY shorts. As I write this, the pair is pushing above the former head in our heads-and-shoulders formation; and then happens to be a tentative breech of the 38.2% fib of the 117.95 - 107.20 bear wave. The trendline you pulled up is also coming under pressure.

I'm actually starting to entertain the possibility of an bullish trade, but since it goes against the medium term trend it will be small. Perhaps a break above 111.75 for 80 to 100 points.

Antonio Sousa · #**757** (**permalink**) 12-06-2007, 12:59 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 6.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 11.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...955779569.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Terri Belkas · #**758** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Kicklighter

Sticking to your guns, eh? I'm much more concerned about recent price action and have pretty much given up on any short-term USDJPY shorts. As I write this, the pair is pushing above the former head in our heads-and-shoulders formation; and then happens to be a tentative breech of the 38.2% fib of the 117.95 - 107.20 bear wave. The trendline you pulled up is also coming under pressure.

I'm actually starting to entertain the possibility of an bullish trade, but since it goes against the medium term trend it will be small. Perhaps a break above 111.75 for 80 to 100 points.

If there's anything you should know about me by now John, it's that I'm stubborn. However, I'm not as hell-bent on expecting a drop in the pair..but my bias remains to the downside until there's a solid break above 111.32. However, if we do see USDJPY push above resistance, I will have no qualms dropping my bearish bias.

strategist · #**759** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 04:56 AM

As supposed, the pair formed a “head & shoulders” shape, the neck line was broken and now the pair’s target is 113.48. But then again let’s take a look over other main pairs and not to be so sure, that this shape will work properly. If the neck line will be broken top-down (110.85), the pair will have a great chance to drop at 108.23.

JimboFX · #**760** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 09:55 AM

Yen is getting to a point where it would break one way or the other

John Kicklighter · #**761** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 10:56 AM

I think it's interesting that we are all pulling up different technical formations. Terri and I were looking at a heads-and-shoulders, strategist had the inverted heads-and-shoulders and Jimbo has a rising wedge.

So, since my heads and shoulders formation has broken down, I wanted to put in a new setup - the falling trendline from the October high (did anyone else mention this? can't remember.).

We should all combine our analysis and make into a single chart. We can identify potential breakouts, ranges, momentum points, stop points and profit targets.

David Rodriguez · #**762** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 11:32 AM

Well, Jamie thinks that we can see a fairly large correction before a resumption of gains.

Given my focus on sentiment, which shows increasing USDJPY long positions, I'm inclined to agree with Jamie. Of course, a sustained break above 111.74 would certainly give me pause in my short-term bearish bias.

Antonio Sousa · #**763** (**permalink**) 12-07-2007, 02:22 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.33 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% lower than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 16.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Antonio Sousa · #**764** (**permalink**) 12-10-2007, 01:16 PM

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 12.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 36.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 8.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

David Rodriguez · #**765** (**permalink**) 12-10-2007, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antonio Sousa

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.33 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.1% higher than yesterday and 12.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 36.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 8.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Similar to the EURUSD, we see countervailing forces in terms of USDJPY positioning. On the one hand, long positions are increasing on a very short-term basis. On the other hand, USDJPY shorts have risen significantly through the past week of trade. The absolute ratio at 1.35 suggests that we should adopt a cautiously bearish bias on the USDJPY.