I hope you have a happy holidays and profitable new year as well hussin.

As for my upcoming vacation (counting the minutes at this point), I have just found one of the few pairs that I will keep a vigilant eye on through the low liquidity/high volatility period: USDJPY.

Looking at the daily chart it looks like spot has nestled up close to a significant level of resistance in a falling trend, SMA, and Fib all around 114. Naturally, as this is a medium term falling trend, I would be positioning for a downside break; though we are entering some unusual conditions so that straightfoward approach won't do.

On the other hand, zooming into the 240-minute time frame we can see a rising trend in the lower time frame and some a very suspect congestion range between 113.50 and 112.75 (the support happening to correspond to the bottom of the rising trend).

While I know breakouts during holiday trading can quickly turn into false moves and otherwise strong levels can be slowly broken down by choppy price action, I feel that USDJPY has the best chance among the majors for serious movement. This pair is highly sensitive to risk, so any announcements by central banks to take advantage of the general calm can be expressed in USDJPY (perhaps as a hedge to closed equity and debt markets?). What's more, their will be plenty of eastern Asian interest still in the market while most of the West is off. Also, we still have fundamental interest from Japan next week (BSI on the 24th), so there is plenty to go on.

I'm going to decide on some tentative orders today (perhaps long above 114.05 and short below 112.45) with tight stops to cover me while I'm traveling tomorrow morning. Then, when I get back in front of a computer, I'll just monitor price action as normal.

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USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.8% higher than yesterday and 8.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.9% lower than yesterday and 7.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.6% stronger than yesterday and 11.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 0.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 18.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk, Sample Size: 25000 Traders

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Will there be a turn around for JPY against USD to grow stronger in the next two weeks ?

Will there be a turn around for JPY at 114.77 against USD ?

Xmas rally ?
would it come ?
next week it is going to be load of actions. and I calling for action especially on the YEN crosses.

wonder if anybody here over next week.
do email me at my blog for chit-chat.
I used to be on EURUSD, now intruding into USDJPY to seek some solace....

Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.

I see exactly that on the USDJPY daily chart, with the pair's break above 114.00 and its falling trendline opening up a (thus far intraday) break above its 100-day SMA. If the pair manages to close above this mark, I woul dlook towards your 116.05 as the next bull target.

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green dot = long
red dot = short

performs much better when it´s trending

Anyone bullish on the USD for the next years ?

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cbueno, I take it you use the switch from red to green as a buy signal, and green to red as a sell signal...is this the case? Also, do you use this specifically on daily charts or on shorter (or longer) time frames as well?

Yes Terri, switching from red to green is the buy signal, and from green to red is the sell signal. It´s an indicator that puts you continuously in the market, although as all indicators it has a lag.

I use it on daily charts, as I don´t like to trade shorter timeframes, but it can be used on monthly or even 1m charts.

But you will probably agree with me that the best indicator is the price movement itself. I will post when it changes from green to red to demonstrate the lag, which in bigger trends shouldn´t be a problem at all.

Short signal with both systems

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Hi cbueno,
I like your chart you displayed and was wondering what software package you use to make your graphs. It looks like a simple system to use which is what I am looking for. Thanks in advance for your help.

Banman17

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.74 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.59 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.2% higher than yesterday and 7.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 15.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.6% stronger than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

Source: FXCM Execution Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...140917987.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Hello, do you know the name of that indicators you are using?

Thanks

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.28 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 0.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 18.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.


Source: FXCM Execution Desk, Sample Size: 25000 Traders

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...353412325.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.