Hi American T thanks for share with me the information I´will check the GFT demo acount and check the charts, a few years ago I was using the omega research and wall street analysis very goods with many tools etc. but so spend for only a single person with a small acount

I think there is a good chance we could break this rising triangle/wedge to the downside; but the dip would be modest - holding out on support at 106 or 105. Instead, I think the next big swing will be to the top side above 108 and will make another notable swing high. Whether or not we will get another lower swing high in the long series or not I don't think I could accurately speculate on.


......So in other words.......you think it could go up or down....how profound!

LOL

hi all .look suborbital on CADYEN and NZDYEN today

Good call again, John! I'm taking some pain on this one, however I have been taking small bites of profits in range trading. WIth the break of 107.91 it appears there could be a continuation of this rally into the high 109s or so. But ultimately is should fall closer to 100. As long as the extremely bearish counts on the dollar and the equity markets I have stay in tact, I remain a hard nosed bear on this pair.

American-T

very good .i agree with american trader ,all of traders think USDYEN buy !!! when USDYEN was 105 i said USDYEN must will go above 109.50- 70 .but now with this movement YEN today ,my point of view changed about buliish .i will go from residence buyers and will arrive to residence sellers .i see USDYEN will go below 104. this movement from YEN is only trap for buyers

Hello to everybody I hope very things is going well.

As I see the bears bias on the pair is very strong, so this is my point of view, is you see the weekly chart you can see a little divergency between price action and the MACD so this could be a signal of small setback, may be to the top of the bear´s channel around 109.80 or 110.50 and after this price could be down until your next target close to 100´s ....what do you think about it?

Here are the charts take a look and tell me your opinion

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I expect USDJPY to remain range bound [113-103] for most of the year, since carry-trades will try to push it to 113 or above while fundamentals will try to push it down below 100, and Bank of Japan will intervene near 103 and sell more Yen to keep it above 103 like they seem to have done last time. This scenario is likely in the absence of any serious event hazard. Risk aversion will run high this year and will not help carry trade push it past 113.

all IMHO.

Hi everyone...

Just registrated... Did not read compleatly thread but maybe my Neowave count will help for further discussion where USDJPY is (by my oppinion) heading...

So... My trade (hopefully) will be LONG for impulse wave C finishing zig-zag

Regards from Croatia!

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I just noticed... there is an error on 4hr picture... it should be "a:5" and not "a:3" for yesterday move up...

sorry...

Well the upside potential on that move proved to be rather modest and now it looks like we are in for a pull back to retest the rising trend/20 SMA around 107. I was taken out at break even on my trade at 108.10.

On the other hand, I shorted GBPCHF around 2.1755 and took profit this morning at 2.1375; so my carry trade exposure wasn't completely a wash.

Considering the steep selloff across the carry pairs and the proximity of support in many of them, I may consider going long USDJPY again around 107.20/35 with an 80 point stop. Though I already have long carry exposure in AUDJPY, and I don't want to max that out too much without some sort of partial hedge.

Ideas?

It seems I am caught long the us unit against yen in what looks to be "a false breakout" of consolidation range.

I am close to stop out pip below 117.25 where it bounced 200 hourly moving average, and significant uptrend low.

What are your ideas? Is it a false breakout?

I was forecasting a required move to 110 least to resume the broader downtrend. But it's too heavy right now.

I guess the USD is the trap, not vice versa.

Here is what my current NW count suggest...

...think this down move is part of an triangle wave b of an flat... so everythink is possible... for example that wave e is truncated and that usd experience strong up burst or to see another lowest low to test start of wave a...

however... one important guidline should be that the time duration of this complex b wave should not be smaller than duration of wave a (which was zig-zag as we know by now)...

regards to all

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hi all ,chart is clear

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I took profit on AUDJPY this morning, so now I'm freed up to buy cheap, long carry positions without increasing my exposure. Looking through the yen crosses, I see good technical probabilities on both side of the carry.

To the long side, GBPJPY has modest potential, but USDJPY is the better option. From a fundamental standpoint, this pair isn't a promising option since the dollar's interest rate outlook is the worst on the market right now. However, with the interest rate related data and the previous rate cuts having less and less effect on the dollar, I think this may be a technically driven pair anyways.

On the other side of the carry, I like CHFJPY and EURJPY short. Ironically, both see interest rate expectations leaning in favor of the higher yielders; but, again, the technicals look strong.

Perhaps this is a sign where trading sentiment gets in the way of a the bigger picture? Maybe CHFJPY and EURJPY break to the upside and USDJPY and GBPJPY to the downside like 'they are supposed to'.

Could set up a four way, partial hedge with this four pairs. Thought that will be considerable commission and I'd have to set up my stops such that my risk/reward is still reasonable even if we don't get momentum. Could be difficult.

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hi john can explain to me why CHFJPY BUY !!!!?
BUT CHART SHOW SELL

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