I do feel they are going down, see my chart on the last forum page. The dollar rallies look corrective so further downside should come. However corrections can unfold in various ways and are often quite complex. I personally put in small positions in preparation for getting stopped out, perhaps a few times, before the trade moves my way. The dollar is approaching a bottom, or perhaps already hit one, but until the evidence substantially supports that, I'm still bearish on the USD. But cautiously, very cautiously. I'm basically approaching this as a way to stay active in the market try to make some small profits in preparation for the significant dollar bottom and rally that is on the horizon where the real money will be made. That's my take.

American-T

Do you think it'll revisit last night low?

I held my position open when it hit last nights low hoping for lower.
Small mistake on my part.

But it looks like it will visit that area once again.

What do you think?

Joker, it's tough to say as I'm not confident in the bearish potential of this pair. The odds do favor another new low before any really meaningful correction. But this correction is deep, and a bit complex so I can see new short term highs ahead as well. Because of this, my position is small right now with a stop at yesterday's high. I personally am not putting too much on this move until a break of last night's low is acheived. But evidence supports it at least testing the lows.

One thing I'm watching is the stock market, which still has some correlation. It's completed three waves down so far which may just be a correction before rallying significantly for days/weeks/months. This may be problematic to the short term bearish outlook on the USD/JPY. But if 5 waves down unfold in the stock market, and the technicals are very bearish, then it's very possible that the markets are headed to new lows. This would support the bearish outlook on the USD/JPY.

So I have to wait for things to unfold. But I personally don't see any good fundamental reason for buying dollars based on the news that came out recently. And the technicals tell me all the dollar rallying is just a fakeout before it breaks hard to the downside. But that's obviously yet to be confirmed.

American-T

AT are you still short on usd/chf cos i am still short on the pair and its really moving against do you think usd/chf will still create a new low now at 1.0007.What do you suggest about the pair.

We're in a descending range here, looks ready to breakout and it's going to the downside IMO.

.99 is giving some resist at this time (8AM PST) but the pair has failed to make higher peaks accross the 100 mark, let alone have a solid close above it.



Thoughts?

usd longs is building strength due to strategic unwinding of usd hedges along with gold across the globe. Price should spike up to 102 in the short-term.

My outlook on the dollar as a whole is now neutral. The larger trend is uncertain as its rally keeps extending and I've been stopped out of most of my trades. I still do have my short USD/CHF and USD/JPY positions left but I have stops at their most recent highs. I'm only trading these two based on the stochastics, which are bearish, and the fact that the risk/reward ratio is appealing, especially on the USD/CHF right now. The USD/CHF's momentum is waning so I'm expecting a drop of at least 100 pips from 1.0100. So this is just a momentum and risk/reward play more than anything else. The recent high on the USD/CHF is around 1.0166 I believe, and I have a stop just above that.

American-T

Great chart and thanks for posting. Another thing to note is that the pair has not made a new short term high through last night while the dollar has done so against the other majors. That small nonconfirmation may be telling us the pairs wants to fall as it's not following the dollar's moves in general. Well, yet anyway. My stops are tight now.

American-T

Exactly what I'm getting after. Very straight forward, especially that if we have a break and hold above 100, cut it out and you're done. Otherwise, look for it to go lower. Poor US news will continue to flow, long term trend is downwards, short USD/JPY until proven otherwise. Entry is key on this. All bets are off when we break and hold above 100.

And thanks for your feedback AT! I've been a long time lurker here...hope to finally get involved a bit and share some thoughts.

Does somebody has elliot waves of the EUR/JPY pair?

John Kicklighter,

I saw your organization on Wall Street Warriors the other night. I think I saw you briefly in a meeting, hashing the next ground breaking trading ideas. Am I correct? If so, you're really getting a lot of exposure now, but hopefully you'll still stay down to earth and still chat us up here when you're not on set, lol. Just messin with ya.

Haven't heard from you in a while. What are your thoughts on the USD/JPY's direction short and medium term? The pair fell much further than I originally anticipated when it was up at 108. I thought 100 - 101 would hold good support. I still think the pair is headed to around 80, but it needs a much more meaningful bounce before it gets there. Thoughts?

American-T

Dear all

I am a fibo specialist
doing quite well on trading

Here are my forecast on usdjpy on daily basis
I will give middle term outlook valid within 1 month period



Kr
Jerome

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I see the USD/JPY in a similar situation as the USD/CHF charts I posted below. (These are reposts I originally placed in the EUR/USD forum):

The first two charts show bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. The 45 min chart (1st chart) shows that the stochastics don't want to come close to prior price level even though the price is virtually flat. On the 4hr chart (2nd chart) you can clearly see that the stochastics are trending down heavy, while price is staying flat. This tells me that the larger uptrend is weakening, but my experience tells me that stochastics are not a good indicator of exact turning points. The pair can drift higher in the short term. But the bottom line is that upside momentum is waning.

Check out my EW count on my next post for specific short term possibilities and let me know what you all think.

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Here's my Elliott Wave count shown on the 2hr chart. I see a W-X-Y correction possibly complete already, and prices declining from current levels. Or, this possible triangle/consolidation will lead to a terminal thrust in a small 5th wave of C of Y. Right now the price is currently at a prior wave iv and the 61% fibonacci level, so this a good reversal area. Or, a terminal thrust up out of the triangle may go to the 78% fibonacci level before reversing.

If counting this as a correction is wrong, and the dollar is in fact rallying in a subdivided impulse wave, then these reversal levels are irrelevant. However with the prolonged rally and the stochastics dragging, some pullback is due regardless.

So the way I see it, whether the dollar falls in a correction, or to resume the larger downtrend for one more final low, either way the dollar should pull back some.

I'm playing this very cautiously and stops are tight.

American-T

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Up or down from here today now at 99.31 and now I am long half size.

Any opinions any one?