Oh well an early weekend and Monday bank holiday. Gotta take my profits as I am heading out with the family and wait up for next week. Sorry dollar lovers am staying bearish.

short GBP/JPY 206 booked +130 point
short USD/JPY 104.20 booked +90

GL and have a nice weekend all

Your GBPJPY short is looking good now. EURJPY has put in for a similar drop through the first half of the Friday session.

AUDJPY is still holding on.

The drop in risk appetite seems pretty mild considering some of the highest yielding yen crosses aren't turning over with more gusto. Could be a sign that carry isn't as all encompassing as it has been in the recent past. Perhaps this is a good opportunity to pick and chose long and short yen pairs for a partial hedge.

anyone an idea why USDJPY is holding up well no matter what happens? With S&P closing below 1377 on friday, i was expecting to see a test of 102.50 Can't figure out why JPY not stronger (in fact it is rather weak)

usdjpy is showing contracted volatility patterns. it can breakout either way and we can expect strong moves once it breaks out. given the fact that it hasnt tested previous lows the risk rewards are more on break of 103.25

hearing talk of large DNT option expiring tomorrow Tokyo cut. 102.50-104.50 the range. Probably gonna stay in that range till option rolls off.

many just waiting for the 10am est news to be sure.. u'll see later.. super BOOM maybe?

IMO, the market is just trying to decide whether USDJPY is taking its cues from broad risk trends or the dollar. We have grown used to the yen crosses all moving in conjunction after a big day in equities or hedge fund implosion; but if we look back more than 9 months, this certainly hasn't been the historical trend. More often than not, Japanese fundamentals (including risk trends) have been overshadowed by cross currency economic releases.

So, now we have a situation were all the highly-risk sensitive assets out there are threatening to break up their correlation (though it is still pretty strong overall). On the other side of the coin, the dollar wants to retake its control of the majors, yet it is still flirting with record lows and we can see in a few pairs (like EURUSD and USDCHF) that have shown strong historical correlation, that the dollar's influence isn't there yet.

I think we will either get a huge dollar move or sharp change in risk sentiment and that will determine the immediate USDJPY breakout. After that however, I think it will take weeks or even months before the market decides what the primary guide for the yen is.

Well, after leaving Monday well alone, I went long after the signal and pullback at 103.53. That gives me currently about a 70 pip gain for Tuesday, after Friday's 63 pips on the short. Trading FX is truly child's play!

If there is time, in future I will post my entries/exits sooner, for the appraisal of others in the forums.

Tony Gold

I wish you could pass some of that child's play along to me. I have been trading Forex for about a month and doubled my money on first trade-since then-ouch!! Similar to the 1974 bear stock market which I lived through. Still think USDJPY is going to make a good move up over the next month or so.

USD/JPY looking topish on the intra-day short 104.80 with stop beyond 105.10. Strong Updtrend by the USD support by OIL breakdown.

The move facing exhaustion, sticking with stop due to slippage.

quick bet on the figures didnt bode that well. As it seems this hour and next close would indicate if an reversal is in site.

I don't have too much confidence in this recent rally..first, USDJPY has run into trendline and fibonacci resistance at 105.15/30. Second, the DJIA has not been able to break above near-term resistance at the 5/21, 5/22 lows near 12,600. If these resistance levels continue to hold, I think we'll see carry trades pull back sharply.

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Terri

I think you will find that this pair likes to behave in a 30 day cycle ie 30 days between lows and 30 days between highs..... and that this week is the end of the low cycle ( for the last few months)

(that is my not too scientific opinion)

So, in the next couple days we could see the uptrend try to resume..... and depending on the strength of that move, we can start to see which way we are traveling longer term....

I'm not completely discounting the possibility that the USDJPY rally could continue, but I do think that noted near-term resistance is quite substantial. I suppose my bias is geared more toward the status of the equity markets (in which I am very very bearish).

USDJPY daily

The bottom chart is the 8 13 double stoch to detect cycles

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