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05-29-2008, 06:15 AM
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Have sell limit in at 105.50-looking for 104.31. We may be looking at start of a bull run in this pair.
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05-29-2008, 06:45 PM
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dollar/yen target
107.30 
Why? fourth wave of major downcycle from 124.17, should reach long-term resistance line AND 0.382 ret level.
Don't be put off by the former high resistance failures on the Dow and this pair. There is an old trading saying: "the fourth time is a certainty" (ho, ho)  |
05-29-2008, 08:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
107.30
Why? fourth wave of major downcycle from 124.17, should reach long-term resistance line AND 0.382 ret level.
Don't be put off by the former high resistance failures on the Dow and this pair. There is an old trading saying: "the fourth time is a certainty" (ho, ho) |
Well, my charts turned bullish yesterday and I tried to pick up some pips on a short!! Took loss today on short, will go long at 105.22 as this bull run is underway. |
05-29-2008, 10:05 PM
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sideways and down a bit
Quote:
Originally Posted by willyc
Well, my charts turned bullish yesterday and I tried to pick up some pips on a short!! Took loss today on short, will go long at 105.22 as this bull run is underway.
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Good luck to all fresh longs if 105.22 is struck. But although the pair is moving sideways and down, there are a lot of eager buyers who may appear in the 105.30 to 105.44 zone shown in the chart. They may prevent such a lower price being reached.
Edit: you may have meant 105.32, not 105.22 (?)
Last edited by terton; 07-13-2008 at 09:10 PM..
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05-29-2008, 11:36 PM
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JPY always fool us...
today the game is over, and large bull will be started to target 104.......
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05-30-2008, 01:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terton
Good luck to all fresh longs if 105.22 is struck. But although the pair is moving sideways and down, there are a lot of eager buyers who may appear in the 105.30 to 105.44 zone shown in the chart. They may prevent such a lower price being reached.
Edit: you may have meant 105.32, not 105.22 (?)
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I enjoy the selective comment. 105.22 may be too low of an entry point. I may reconsider my initial opinion. I made my decision of yesterday to go short right when I broke a tooth eating cornflakes-honestly. Both occurences made for a bad day. Still, I believe this bull run will last longer and go higher than most presently think. |
05-30-2008, 07:25 AM
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All Asian currencies
All Asian currencies are appreciating. I guess they are over appreciating. So there is a pullback on all Asian currencies. For the coming year, long term the Asian currencies will still go BULL.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
- By Jamie Saettele
"Expectations are for the USD/JPY to drop below 95.72"
Last edited by USAF4ER; 05-30-2008 at 07:27 AM..
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05-30-2008, 12:06 PM
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I'm currently flat in the currency market, but I do have standing orders for a couple of the yen pairs.
I have a floating AUDJPY long limit entry order that has been in the market for three days now. I'll take it off at the end of today's session and I'm not going to move up the entry price b/c I'm not too keen on holding the exposure so close to new support/old resistance when liquidity drains.
I also have stop orders on both sides of USDJPY. Looking at the daily chart, it looks like we could get a significant break above 106 that could confirm a bullish rebound (instead of a mere bounce before the dominate trend finds traction again) and lead us on a major rally.
On the other hand, the 102.50 - 105.50 range could continue to hold; and in that case, there is a clear rising trend on the intraday chart that draws a line for entry.
Don't think I'll get triggered on any of this by the close of the New York session though, volatility is dying quickly.
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05-31-2008, 10:24 PM
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my view
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
I also have stop orders on both sides of USDJPY. Looking at the daily chart, it looks like we could get a significant break above 106 that could confirm a bullish rebound (instead of a mere bounce before the dominate trend finds traction again) and lead us on a major rally.
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Although there has been an upside break and price stays above 105.29, Monday could see a pullback, if that level goes, perhaps to 104.90. The bear short-term case rests entirely on a break of 104.63, in my view. However, despite any pullback, I favour a move to 108.59 with some stalling at 106.60. 
Attached chart showing the price/time action of USDJPY with the 104.90 level.
Last edited by terton; 07-13-2008 at 09:10 PM..
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06-02-2008, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
I'm currently flat in the currency market, but I do have standing orders for a couple of the yen pairs.
I have a floating AUDJPY long limit entry order that has been in the market for three days now. I'll take it off at the end of today's session and I'm not going to move up the entry price b/c I'm not too keen on holding the exposure so close to new support/old resistance when liquidity drains.
I also have stop orders on both sides of USDJPY. Looking at the daily chart, it looks like we could get a significant break above 106 that could confirm a bullish rebound (instead of a mere bounce before the dominate trend finds traction again) and lead us on a major rally.
On the other hand, the 102.50 - 105.50 range could continue to hold; and in that case, there is a clear rising trend on the intraday chart that draws a line for entry.
Don't think I'll get triggered on any of this by the close of the New York session though, volatility is dying quickly.
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Well, we did get a breakout from USDJPY and it was along the path of least resistance, to the downside.
My orders expired with the weekend unfortunately and my existing AUDJPY position suffered from the gain in the yen.
To cap it off, I set orders for a short EURJPY position when the FX market opened back up Sunday evening, but they missed by a few points. Not a good start to the week.
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06-02-2008, 12:15 PM
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usd/jpy looks like its on it usual course up down look like it going towards 103.90 another fake out. i think it will be some time before we see it hit 106.00
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06-02-2008, 09:00 PM
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support area
For the last five waves up, from 103.29 to 105.74, the pair has retraced to establish support on 104.22, the 0.618ret level. See your hourly chart. Though this may be temporary, it might imply a pullback (rise) occuring Tuesday before a retest of the lower levels. 
We have already had a pullback to 104.63, which defines a downcycle commencing. If the pair recovers and closes above that level, it would be very significant, I think. However, even a spike to 104.69 would only be the end of a c-wave of iv prior to a v down retest.
104.34 support is presently pivotal to such a pullback.
On the other hand, if 105.86 is not the larger peak and 106.65 is the destination, conversely we might expect another spike down towards yesterday's low before the real buyers come in.
Or indeed, both scenarios could happen. One just did - a spike up to 104.71. Let's see if a further upmove occurs, or we could short USDJPY right now! Or we could buy it.
Last edited by terton; 06-02-2008 at 10:28 PM..
Reason: further thoughts
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06-02-2008, 10:14 PM
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JPY is ready to break 103.00 tomorrow.
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06-03-2008, 04:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LG1
JPY is ready to break 103.00 tomorrow.
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There some significant support before a we hit 103.00. Although, It may only take some more scares from the banking industry after the the S&P downgrades and the B&B debacle in the U.K. However, there is Fibo support at 103.64 and trendline support at 103.85. and there is believed to be significant stops at those levels from the institutionals. But if we break through the pair may fall to 102.28, the 4/18 low and 61.8% Fibo of 100.03-105.86 rally |
06-03-2008, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Kicklighter
Well, we did get a breakout from USDJPY and it was along the path of least resistance, to the downside.
My orders expired with the weekend unfortunately and my existing AUDJPY position suffered from the gain in the yen.
To cap it off, I set orders for a short EURJPY position when the FX market opened back up Sunday evening, but they missed by a few points. Not a good start to the week.
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With the Bernanke comments today, USDJPY shot right back up to resistance on the long-term falling trendline/range that I consider to be around 105.50/75.
If we could get some serious event risk, this could turn into a major breakout to the upside. And, if that were the case, I'm sure AUDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY would follow with big upside moves over their own.
However, I'm always skeptical of major breakouts (as the market sees major volatility and follow through momentum a very small percentage of the time - so therefore does not put the probabilities on your side). Have a couple short orders (one already executed around 105.5 and 106. With a sizable stop.
Would be really ticked if volatility died out completely and I sat on this until NFPs...
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